*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
Buffalo had another typical
disappointing season in 2011, and appear on the
path toward irrelevance again in 2012. Not only
do the Bills draw their normal NYJ, MIA, NE 2x
each on the schedule...but they also have the
NFC West in 2012. The NFC West is suddenly a
nice defensive division with SF, SEA and late
charging ARI. The Bills offense was wobbly in
2011, and it likely will not take a major step
forward in 2012...despite the depth at RB. As
long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is at
helm, the Bills will be stuck in neutral. If
Fitzpatrick is mediocre, then all of the Bills
WR/TE talent is somewhat held hostage in a
Fantasy Football sense as well.
C.J. Spiller/Fred
Jackson
The first mistake of 2012
that I think the Bills will make right out of
the gates is not trading Fred Jackson.
Not only do I think that they won't trade
Fred Jackson (maybe there is no
market), they will double-down and have him as a
2012 opening-day starter.
Fred Jackson
had an excellent 2011 season, cut short by
injury. However, Jackson will be 31 years and 7
months old to start the 2012 season. That is the
point of rapid skill erosion for a RB. At best,
at best, Jackson has one solid season left in
him. Why would you put all your chips in on
Jackson for a 2012 season that you are likely to
go (6-10) in? Jackson may have some trade value
this off-season, for something...anything to
help facilitate the rebuild process. Jackson
will have almost no value with a 2012
injury-plagued season...and he definitely will
not have value in the 2012 off-season as a near
33-year old 2012 RB. The Bills/Chan
Gailey strike me as "sentimental," and I
think that they will start the high
character/leader in Jackson over the flashy
Spiller...or split them (a la Todd
Haley, KC Chiefs, and Thomas Jones/Jamaal
Charles circa-2010). It's just a hunch.
C.J. Spiller
is the future, and he showed it. Spiller is the
kind of RB that could give you a run at 2,000+
yards rushing in a season, and be an electric
game-breaker RB that could hoist the franchise
on his back and make a move toward a winning
record. Fred Jackson is very good,
C.J. Spiller is dynamic...and much
younger.
From a Dynasty League
standpoint, I would move off of Fred
Jackson if someone was over-excited by him.
You are looking at one more season of usefulness
at best for Jackson. If you were to look at it
as -- 1/3rd chance that Jackson is good/great in
2012, 1/3rd chance that Jackson winds up
nagging-injured/slower-speed off injury/age, and
a 1/3rd chance that Jackson splits with
Spiller...then you have 2/3rd's risk that
Jackson is a Fantasy Football waste in 2012.
There will be little left in the tank on Jackson
in 2013...based on age related erosion, so your
Fred Jackson value window is 2012...and that
window has a crack in it. I wouldn't give him
away, but if someone feels the love...he'd be
gone for me.
I would try to
acquire C.J. Spiller as much on
the cheap as possible in Dynasty Leagues this
off-season, but with his great 2011 late-season
performance...not likely to happen so easily or
cheaply. If/when the media hypes Fred
Jackson's return...and the Bills say all the
right things, and the fear sets in that Spiller
might sit/split; maybe you have a reduced value
window to make a trade on. There is also the
risk with Spiller that he splits with Jackson in
2012, as well the risk that much like with
Chris Johnson, Jamaal
Charles, etc...the smaller 200-pound +/- RBs
have a shorter NFL shelf-life. I want Spiller,
but I'm not going to burn a ton of calories or
assets to do so.
Spiller vs. Jackson
comparisons:
17.0 FF PPG, 20.9 PPR PPG,
93.4 rush yards per game, 137.6 total yards per
game, 5.5 ypc = Fred
Jackson 2011
15.5 FF PPG, 19.5 PPR PPG,
77.2 rush yards per game, 106.6 total yards per
game, 5.3 ypc = C.J.
Spiller as a starter in 2011
17.6 FF PPG, 21.8 PPR PPG,
82.8 rush yards per game, 115.8 total yards per
game, 6.1 ypc = C.J.
Spiller as a starter in 2011, after his first
start vs. the Jets.
Rookie RB Johnny White
made little sense to us when the Bills drafted
him in 2011, and he makes less sense now. Our
computer scouting formulas showed nothing
exciting on White, and he did nothing to
disprove that in 2011. Wouldn't be shocked to
see him released in 2012.
Stevie Johnson
Johnson has majorly defied
our statistical college scouting formulas.
According to our modeling of college-to-NFL WRs,
there should be no way that Johnson is relevant
in the NFL...much less thrive. However, Johnson
has been very, very good. Nevertheless, we still
use caution with him because we don't see the
elite physical skills...and we fear he could
fall off/disappear fast.
If I were running the Bills
franchise, there would be 0.0% chance I would
bring Johnson back for a long-term deal...much
less a short-term one. Diva NFL WRs get you
nowhere in the NFL...and if I were going to put
up with a diva-WR, they would have to be
ultra-unique (very tall, incredible speed,
etc.). Johnson is not ultra-unique. There are
plenty of solid/good 6'1+, 200+ pound solid WRs
available in the middle of every draft...or late
in every draft, or as undrafted free-agents. I'd
pass on Johnson as an NFL organization. For
Dynasty League organizations, I value Johnson
higher if he is retained by Buffalo...as he
seems to be a Fitzpatrick crutch. I would really
be worried if Johnson gets a long-term deal
somewhere, from a effort standpoint going
forward...but my guess is he signs a decent
one-year deal in Buffalo, and is still grinding
in 2012.
I'm not a huge Stevie fan,
but I respect what he is doing in Buffalo. I
wouldn't over-invest in him...and I would deal
him away if someone loved him. The long-term
prospects for Johnson is not something I would
get excited about.
Donald Jones
We are very, very high on
Donald Jones. In a mid-season
report in 2011, we were drawn to a developing
data trend with Jones and Fitzpatrick...and we
were putting our readers and clients on it. I
wrote a major article outlining the
possibilities, and went "all in" on Jones in
Week-11...only to see him get knocked out of the
game with injury after one pass-target; and then
the news was he was lost for the rest of 2011.
Those things happen.
The mid-season article I
wrote captures what we think of Jones best, so
if interested click =
Along came Donald Jones... - Fantasy Football
2011
The short version is, we
think Jones could be a breakout performer in
2012...we thought it could happen in 2011, but
nagging-injuries suppressed that. Jones could be
one of the reasons why the Bills pass on
re-signing Stevie in 2012. Our computer thinks
that Jones is the better version of Victor
Cruz, only playing in a much lower-grade
passing game currently.
Marcus Easley
Marcus
Easley could be another reason why Stevie
Johnson moves on. The 2010 draft pick, is
a 6'2+ WR, who runs a sub 4.4 40-time, with
great agility for his size. Easley has a lot of
metrics that our computer likes...but also a few
that it hates.
Easley is
smaller-framed at 210 pounds, his overall
physique is one that has mild red-flags for
injury risk...and that has been a real issue in
his short NFL career. The major red-flag on
Easley is very small hand measurements, which is
not good for the type of WR that he projects to
be...a jump ball, over-the-top WR. Easley is
going to have pass-drop problems, especially in
cold/windy Buffalo. We could see Easley popping
up with some exciting games, and grabbing
attention...but ultimately not keeping the
consistency to be a Fantasy Football star.
Easley is worth squatting on in Dynasty
Leagues...but with an eye towards waiting for
that value "bubble" to form either from
preseason buzz, or a 1-2-3 game run of nice
output/highlights...and then "taking your
profits" via a trade-away.
If
Johnson is not signed, and the Bills do not
draft a worthwhile physically bigger
WR...Easley's value is on the rise. Either one
of those two things happen, and it might mean
that Easley is not very high in the Bills
personnel evaluations.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
For
two seasons, we have been wrong for the first
three games of the season in Fitzpatrick's run
as a Bills starting QB...but then spot on for
all the rest of his games/performance.
Fitzpatrick started out the first three games of
2011 with = 21.9 FF PPG, 9 TD/3 INT and 280.3
passing yards per game. Over his next 12 games
of 2011 (we ignore Week-17), Fitzpatrick faded
to 11.5 FF PPG, 13 TD/16 INT, 223.7 yards per
game.
Fitzpatrick had nearly the same trend line in
2010..but the 2011 finish was worse. We would
say that Fitzpatrick "regressed" in 2011...but
that is an insult to us, as we thought
Fitzpatrick was mediocre all along. He is a
solid "C" to "C-" NFL QB...useful, but not
good/great. As long as Fitzpatrick is the QB,
the Fantasy Football prospects of Donald
Jones and David Nelson, et
al are muted to a degree.
To me
(and now about everyone agrees), the Bills made
a major mistake with signing Fitzpatrick to a
longer term deal...and now they are stuck. I
think they will draft a QB in the 3rd-7th round
of the 2012 NFL Draft, and thus try to quietly
rectify the situation...which means 1-2 more
years (at least) of Fitzpatrick...and thus 1-2
more years of Bills mediocrity. Fitzpatrick is
nothing more than a bye-week fill-in QB at best
for Fantasy Football.
Quick Notes
-
Scott
Chandler is at max value. Actually,
Chandler's max value was after his 4 TDs in
the first 3 games of 2011 (and only 2 TDs in
his next 10 games, all in one game).
Chandler is not a future Fantasy Football
star TE, nor probably even useful. The Bills
have squatted on a very intriguing TE in
Fendi Onobun. Onobun is a former
basketball star, turned TE. Physically, he
is awesome...however, he may have other
issues at play as he has bounced from STL to
JAC to BUF in two seasons after starting a
7th-Round pick of STL in 2010. If I had to
bet a nickel on a Bills TE for Fantasy
Football it would be Onobun...just for a
lottery ticket chance at something special,
and low odds of panning out it appears.
-
David
Nelson is nice, but not a future star
NFL WR. We don't see a ton of Fantasy
Football upside here, just a very useful,
solid member of a WR core for any team.
-
Naaman
Roosevelt has a few interesting metrics,
but Donald Jones is much better
all-around for that same type of slot WR
profile.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
