*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
The Falcons are stuck in a
rut. They are a good team, with little hope (as
currently constituted) of becoming a great team.
They are not good in enough, in my opinion, to
go to the next level…but not bad enough to turn
the team over. The Falcons are stuck in an NFL
purgatory.
Matt Ryan is not an
elite NFL QB. Michael Turner will be
closer to 31 years old than 30 to start the 2012
NFL season, and Tony Gonzalez will be
closer to 37 years old than 36, if he returns
for another season. There is no/weak depth in
the key offensive skill positions, and the
defense is mediocre “as is”…plus three of their
best defensive players are 2012 Unrestricted
Free Agents – John Abraham, Brent Grimes, and
Curtis Lofton.
2012 might be a long,
revealing season for the Falcons. The upside to
that for Fantasy Football purposes is…there
should be plenty of shootouts for Atlanta facing
the NFL West defenses, and drawing the AFC West
on the schedule in 2012. Even with a favorable
schedule, the Falcons have a ton of “at the
crossroads” issues to consider:
Michael
Turner/Jacquizz Rodgers
We think that you really
have to be concerned about Michael Turner
going forward, and if you own him for Fantasy
Football…you should be moving off of him
pre-2012 in Dynasty Leagues if you can pull a
respective value. Turner will be 30.6 years old
to start the 2012 season…that is approaching (or
past) the state of rapid skill erosion for an
NFL RB. From Weeks 9-16 (ignoring Week-17, as we
always do) in 2011, Turner averaged 68.4 rushing
yards per game, with 0.4 TDs per game, and just
3.7 yards per carry. In that 8-game span, Turner
had just one 100+ yard rushing game. A solid
stretch, but a sharp drop-off in
productivity…especially in TD production
(compared to what Turner usually posts).
As we have said back to
pre-2011 NFL Draft time periods, Jacquizz
Rodgers is not the Falcons long-term answer
either. Rodgers measured very slow, and un-agile
at the 2011 NFL Combine. He is physically small
in every way…he is no more than a couple touch
per game NFL RB at best. This past season,
Rodgers averaged 3.3 carries per game…with 3.7
yards per carry. Rodgers did not rush for a TD
this past season, despite being on the field a
ton…especially in 3rd-down and red-zone
packages. I would not invest in Rodgers as the
alternative play to Turner.
The alternative to Turner,
is not on the roster just yet. We like a few
things about 4th-string RB Antone Smith,
but it appears that he hasn’t impressed the
Falcons outside of his special teams play.
The Falcons, I’m sure, will
logically pursue post-Turner RB planning in the
2012 NFL Draft. Even if they can squeeze another
solid season from Turner, the smart money for
them would be to take a 2nd-3rd-4th Round RB in
the 2012 NFL Draft. When they do, and if that RB
draftee has talent, then Turner is going to
yield some carries in 2012 to the new rookie
RB…and then between diminishing skills and a
reduced workload, Turner becomes 10-20+% of the
Fantasy Football RB that he used to be.
We would jump off of Turner
now in Dynasty Leagues, nor would we be excited
by someone else’s reduced “deal” to acquire
Turner…thinking we can squeeze one more
productive year. Turner has one season (tops)
left as FF valuable; with decent odds, that 2012
isn’t great either. Once age catches up with an
NFL RB, it is a swift and precipitous drop in
output.
Matt Ryan
Everyone loves Matt Ryan…we
are almost all media-conditioned to do so. I
“like” Matt Ryan at best, but am mostly
lukewarm on him. Our computer scouting models
were never high on Ryan coming out of college,
but he has outperformed our projections.
Ultimately, for Fantasy Football, he has been a
nice back-up/bye-week QB in most 10-12 team
Fantasy leagues…and we think he stays there. I
love the division he plays in, and love that he
has Roddy White and Julio Jones
going forward…but we still think Ryan is an
insurance chip/spot starter based on favorable
matchups at best, not as likely a QB to take a
step into stardom in 2012.
Looking back at his 2011,
Ryan had a nice stretch in the 2nd-half of 2011,
but he mostly pounced on the likes of IND, MIN,
CAR and JAC (when JAC-D was injured, fading, and
just lost Del Rio). When it came to facing
tougher pass-defenses/winning team in 2011, Ryan
was mostly a dud:
-- 14.1 FF PPG, 59.5%
Comp Pct, 253.3 yards per game, 9 TD/9 INT = vs.
CHI, PHI, SEA, GB, DET, TEN, HOU (7 games in
2011)
In those 7 tougher games,
Ryan had one or fewer passing TDs in 6 out of
those 7 games. In the other 8 games played
against weaker pass-defenses in 2011 (we ignore
Week-17), Ryan posted:
-- 20.3 FF PPG, 62.7%
Comp Pct, 287.3 yards per game, 18 TD/3 INT =
vs. TB, CAR 2x, IND, NO 2x, MIN, JAC
Ryan is a nice Fantasy
Football QB to use based on matchups/opponents,
but we would avoid the trap of "outthinking the
room" that Ryan is headed to the next level.
Ryan is good, not great…but has a higher value
in most owners’ minds, mostly due to the media
push. If I were a current owner of Ryan in a
Dynasty League, I’d kick the tires on dealing
him if there exists an owner who has him on a
pedestal, but I wouldn't just throw away Ryan…he
is a valuable insurance chip QB for Fantasy
Football 2012+.
Julio Jones
I can’t say enough about
where we think Julio Jones is headed
long-term. A recent article (link below) we
published captures our feelings better than a
quick paragraph. I will say, Jones was the
leading receiver for the Falcons in their
playoff loss…but didn’t blow the roof off, so
you might have time/suppressed value to pull off
what we recommended in our research article
pre-playoffs. Click here to read the entire
Jones research article for 2012 =
The Potential "A+" Fantasy Football WR of
2012...(subtitle = Trading A.J. Green for Julio
Jones) - Fantasy Football 2011-2012
Quick Notes
-
There is no legit TE
Fantasy Football prospect on the Falcons,
that can replace Tony Gonzalez, so
keep an eye out for a later round TE draft
pick in 2012. Gonzalez was very productive
for most of the 2011 season, but he did not
score a TD in his last 7 games (including
the playoff game). The Gonzalez fade has to
be on the verge, and he may even retire this
year. Gonzalez would be 36.6 years old to
start the 2012 season.
-
Harry Douglas is
an Unrestricted Free Agent this year; he has
no real Fantasy Football impact to us
whether back with ATL, or signed to a new
team for 2012. Douglas is a fringe NFL WR at
best in our analysis.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
