*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
We are doing team reviews
alphabetically, which means Arizona is up
first…which is fitting, because our Fantasy
Football projections on the Cardinals offense
were probably the worst thing in our 2011
preseason. In a year that we are statistically
considering our best ever (based on in-season
winning percentage, preseason player
rankings)…we mostly blew it across the board on
the 2011 Cardinals. The cornerstones of our
major miss – Kevin Kolb and Andre
Roberts.
Kevin Kolb
Let’s start with perhaps
our single worst projection of the last two
years...Kevin Kolb. Our 2011 preseason #8
ranked QB, was anything but that this season. To
be fair in our humiliation, we also had Kolb as
a top-6 QB in 2010. We may be the last
believers in Kolb on the planet, and our grip to
that claim is slipping. The information at this
point doesn’t lie. It’s not that Kolb has been a
complete washout as a QB (although 2011 wasn't
wonderful by any means), it’s now become a
troubling factor that Kolb can’t stay on the
field for very long…missing time, and
opportunity, with concussions in 2010, and again
in 2011. There are too many other great
possibilities in the Fantasy Football world to
continue to bet on Kolb heavily.
We won’t bet heavily, but
I’m still in the market…even for this penny
stock. If you’ve made your mind up on/against
Kolb, we can’t blame you. I’m a buyer at the
right price, and the price is almost nothing
currently. Our mathematical scouting system
ratings have always favored Kolb. The Eagles
gave him huge money, and a starting job in 2010
after seeing him play sporadically for parts of
the prior three seasons. The Cardinals invested
heavily in Kolb in the 2011 off-season…beating
out several NFL suitors. You can look at all
this Kolb-hysteria from the angle that many NFL
coaches and scouts are very wrong…or, you could
look at as -- there is a sliver of chance that
something is there with Kolb. It may never
materialize, but we think the possibilities are
still there.
A healthy (which is no
guarantee), full-season 2012 Kevin Kolb
with Larry Fitzgerald, emerging Andre
Roberts, a top TE prospect (in our analysis)
in Rob Housler, with Beanie Wells
and maybe Ryan Williams…all this could
lead Kolb to become a top-10 Fantasy Football QB
in 2012. At least, it is something we are still
investing (cheaply) in.
I’m looking at Kolb now in
Dynasty Leagues where I have clients with shaky,
aging starting QBs...and no high rookie draft
pick upcoming in 2012, and thus looking to sit
on a cheap “lottery ticket” QB. Furthermore, we
are looking at Kolb on Dynasty teams where we
have a great starting QB in place…but are always
on the hunt for QB insurance, or a trade chip.
Kolb is going for about 10 cents on the dollar
right now...I'd pay the meager prices for Kolb
if I had an available Dynasty roster spot to
consider this gamble.
Andre Roberts
We had Roberts as a top-30
WR in the 2011 preseason, when most people would
not have had him in the top-100. Roberts
finished 2011 ranked in the 60’s on a point per
game basis, but it’s not that weak overall rank
that we are concentrating on…it’s his strong
finish that has us excited.
Roberts was statistically
vacant for the first 7 games of 2011, but was a
top-40 FF PPG scoring WR in the last 8 games of
2011 (*we don’t consider Week-17 stats, we think
they are mostly irrelevant...good or bad). In
Roberts's last four games (again, no Week-17),
he was a top-25 FF PPG scoring-level WR. We’ve
said it several times all season…Andre
Roberts is the better version of Antonio
Brown, but playing in a lesser passing
game/with a less talented QB.
We think Roberts is going
to press towards becoming a 80-100 catch per
season type of WR, but we thought it might
happen with Kolb in 2011. Even with John
Skelton, Roberts started hitting his stride
late (5.0 catches per game in Weeks 13-16).
Roberts is a huge undervalued commodity in our
computer right now…and we have been picking him
up, and/or acquiring him anywhere we can so far
in this off-season.
Beanie Wells
This was probably the best
season you could ever ask for with Beanie
Wells. Ryan Williams was lost right
away, and Wells was given a huge workload. Wells
was statistically successful overall, a top-15
Fantasy Football RB for 2011 on a PPG basis.
However, we see several problems with Wells
going forward. The main 2011 issue being…if you
takeaway the monster Week-12, 238-yards rushing
game versus STL, you wind up with an RB, who
otherwise averaged 65.5 yards rushing per game,
and just 3.8 yards per carry. Wells really had
two incredible games in 2011 (Week-4 and
Week-11), and then a bunch of mediocrity in most
all the other games. Wells was mostly
mediocre-to-good (not good/great) in 2011, and
was often fighting nagging injuries (as he
always seems to be).
Wells’s claim to fame for
2011 is 10 TDs scored…which is great, but if
this is the best that you can get from Wells --
you should deal him at max value if you can. The
Cardinals didn’t draft Ryan Williams
highly in 2011 because they were in love with
Beanie Wells as a primary RB, and if
Williams comes back to any degree of success in
2012…it will cut further into Wells’s Fantasy
Football output for his 2012.
Wells has depth chart risk
with Williams, has a history of injury, and his
value is probably a little over-inflated right
now. This would be a stock to sell if a high
value was lurking in your league.
Rob Housler
We think Housler has all
the makings of a potential very good, maybe even
great NFL receiving TE. Housler is a 4.46 speedy
TE, and has as high of agility, and speed bursts
metrics, that we have ever seen within our
internal formulas among TEs. Housler has
excellent size at 6’5+, 250 +/- pounds, with big
hands, incredibly long arms, good strength, and
a nice vertical. Housler’s physical profile for
a TE, is akin to something you would design
yourself on paper…trying to create the perfect
TE.
All the measureables are
great to drool over, but I recall Housler
dropping more passes than making great plays in
2011. In Week-5 Housler had 8 pass-targets, a
few weeks later he had 6 pass-targets…he was
starting to get somewhat integrated in the
offense early, but was then lost to nagging
injury for most of the rest of 2011. If you want
a shot at the next Jimmy Graham-type of
TE (minus Drew Brees at QB), this is
it…according to our computers.
Quick Notes
-
Our computer scouting
was not high on Ryan Williams, but
our system is vulnerable when evaluating
more recent injured college players.
However, that’s all we have to go on…so poor
ratings for Williams out of college, and now
a major injury before he even starts his
career. I wouldn't invest much at all in
Williams.
- Our computer scouting
is not big on Early Doucet, but he
had a respectable 2011 season. Our computer
sees him as NFL useful at best. If Doucet is
back with the Cardinals in 2012, we don’t
think it has a ton of impact on Andre
Roberts.
- WR Stephen Williams
is a player to keep an eye on as a long-shot
Fantasy Football prospect for 2012. Williams
is a 6’5 WR, who was productive for Toledo
in college. Williams is a little
smaller-framed, weaker physically (our
computer’s profile)…but he will have had two
NFL seasons now to bulk-up. Not projecting
stardom, but our computer sees a few
interesting aspects.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
