*Fantasy Football Metrics statistical analysis for Fantasy Football does not include Game #16/Week-17 games (unless otherwise noted), as they are games that do not (typically) reflect reality. As well, we calculate partial (.50, .75, etc) games played as we can establish due to injury, etc. We are trying to establish true performance and don't want to be skewed by considering time not played and impressive (or bad) final game stats from a meaningless season ending game.

Every pre-Fantasy Football Draft there is one "special" QB that lurks just below the NFL established elite QBs. The media gets behind said QB, and our ears bleed with the singular chorus of everyone falling all over themselves pronouncing this certain anointed QB as their "sleeper" (not sure how a QB who everyone has as their "sleeper", is a "sleeper"; but I digress....). Last year it was Joe Flacco...until the same people had the start of their 2010 Fantasy Football season flushed down the toilet by Flacco -- and their preseason high praise was, 5 games into 2010, turned into questions like..."is Flacco a mediocre starting NFL QB at best?", "and where is Marc Bulger anyway"?

The problem wasn't that Flacco wasn't a good/great in the making, the issue was that no one looked at the schedule and anticipated such a brutal start to the season. Once Flacco went past that rough stretch (5 TDs and 6 INTs in first 5 games), he was great (20 TDs and 3 INTs in the last 10 games)...but by then most Fantasy GMs had traded him away and/or had turned elsewhere for their QB needs.

Enter the 2011 hype-machine candidate -- Matt Ryan.

Atlanta is a team on the rise and Matt Ryan is a very good QB; we just need a match to throw on this pool of gasoline...enter Julio Jones. Despite the fact that Matt Ryan has been a solid QB, but outside of the Top 12-15 Fantasy Football scoring per game QBs each of his 3 season -- now his 2011 Fantasy Football Draft stock is going to be catapulted by an incoming rookie WR named Julio Jones. We are going to be treated to a constant, "you know with Julio Jones AND Roddy White AND Tony Gonzalez...the Falcons passing game will be unstoppable!" If you play a drinking game where every time a grown man/Fantasy Football mainstream media personality writes or utters the words "Matty Ice", you will have alcohol poisoning before you ever make it to your 2011 Fantasy Football Draft.

Knowing/suspecting that this hype is going to happen, I had already constructed in my mind the obvious anti-"Matty Ice" (swig, gulp...) Fantasy Football scenario. Not that I am against Matt Ryan for any reason...I'm just thinking of it like a stock investor. In 2011, Ryan will be like a "hot internet stock"...his pre-Draft value pushed too far by the allure of the "sleeper" tag. Ryan will be way over-valued (relative to the other QBs available, and Ryan's likely output) going into to 2011 Fantasy Football Drafts -- and thus becomes a Fantasy Football QB to avoid chasing after or bidding up too high. 

That was my first thought, however something has come along to stop my "anti" thought process in it's tracks for a moment -- the Atlanta Falcons schedule.

There are two things catching my eye early on for this schedule-thing, and one of them is somewhat bizarre...

1) An easy schedule of Pass-Defenses to face in 2011:

It's early in the analysis, but on preliminary looks at it -- the Falcons may have the overall easiest/best schedule of Pass-Defenses to face in Fantasy Football 2011. The Falcons start the season in Chicago, and that's not a gift...but it is early and in good weather. Prior to their Week-7 BYE and after Week-1 Chicago, their road games are TB, SEA, DET mixed with a couple tough Pass-D home games (but at home) with PHI, GB, CAR.

The pre-BYE stretch is a mixed bag, the post-BYE Falcons schedule of Pass-Defenses eases greatly:

• at IND
• NO
• TEN
• MIN
• at HOU
• at CAR
• JAC
• at NO
• TB (Week-17)

In the Fantasy Football pre-playoff stretch (Week 9-14), Ryan has potential shootout games in domes with IND and NO followed by 4 games against seemingly favorable opponents -- 3 of those 4 games are against teams with new coaches (TEN, MIN, CAR) and the other of the 4 games is a matchup with the perennially horrible Pass-Defense of the Houston Texans. Most every game in the 2nd half of 2011 is either forecast to be in very warm weather or in domes, with Week-14 at Carolina as the only hint of a possible weather issue at all.

 

2) How many "dome games" are you allowed per season?

Speaking of domes, the Falcons get the obvious 8 home games in a dome...but somehow swung at Detroit, at Indianapolis, and of course a division game at the Saints. The Falcons have an unusual 11 dome games this season? The December away game with the Houston Texans in Week-13 is nearly like a dome game.

Why is the dome count important to Matt Ryan?

• 8 Games in a dome in 2010 (not counting Week-17), 15 TDs and 3 INTs, 65.8% Comp Pct and 17.2 Fantasy PPG (also a 7-1 record)
• 7 games NOT in a dome in 2010, 11 TDs and 6 INTs, 58.1% Comp Pct and 13.2 Fantasy PPG

Ryan was had a 7% lower completion percentage when not in a dome, as well as a -4.0 drop in Fantasy Football scoring per game.

If you think it is a given that QBs perform better in a dome, last season upper tier QBs who play in a home-dome weren't as fortunate as Matt Ryan:

• Peyton Manning scored an average of -7.1 FF PPG lower in dome games (Week-17 at home-dome not counted)
• Drew Brees scored an average of -0.5 FF PPG lower in dome games (Week-17 at home-dome not counted)
• Sam Bradford scored an average of -1.8 FF PPG lower in dome games (Week-17 away not counted)

Overall the top tier QBs in the NFL scored -1.7 FF PPG lower in their dome games (home & away). Matt Ryan's higher spread was an aberration to the trend in 2010.

All that creates a scenario where the 2011 overall schedule is seemingly very favorable toward Matt Ryan's historical strengths and preferences for producing higher passing stats.

 

Matt Ryan Fantasy Football forecast for 2011?

I'm not ready to anoint Matt Ryan as a given for a step up to the elite in 2011. I'm hesitant on taking a big step to bank on Ryan to start at QB for my Fantasy 2011 -- partially because I'm just not totally sold on Ryan as an elite QB (just really good), and partially that I'm not 100% sold on Julio Jones yet either. However, the schedule factor may end up bumping Ryan's 2011 scoring projections, in our 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, to among the top 10-12 Fantasy Football QBs overall.

The wisest/slickest play on Ryan, in a normal 10-12 team Fantasy Football league, would be to pass on Matt Ryan in the preseason Draft -- assuming that he is going to get drafted higher than he should on this Julio Jones hype/excitement...but then look to acquire Ryan somewhere around Week 6-7-8 before the Falcons BYE week, but after their game with GB (that might be rough statistically).

A potential forecast on Ryan's 2011 may look like this:

First 5 games of 2011:

• at CHI, will be a tougher statistical game...maybe even bad (Ryan had his worst game of 2010, in the opener on the road against another physical team -- the Steelers...just 8.5 FF pts scored)
• home with PHI, Philly is not a pushover
• at TB
• at SEA, we're not excited about Seattle's Pass-D...but depending upon the notorious crowd noise, who knows? (last year at SEA, Ryan had just 174 yards...but 3 passing TDs)
• home with GB, could be very tough

Ryan's Week 6-14:

• Week-6 = home with CAR, starts the loosening of the strength of Pass-D opponents
• Week-7 = at DET, in a dome with bad CBs
• Week-8 = BYE
• Week-9 = at IND, dome shootout?
• Week-10 = home with NO, dome shootout II (start of a 3 game home-dome stretch)
• Week-11 = home with TEN
• Week-12 = home with MIN
• Week-13 = at HOU, typically a very bad defense...in warm weather in December
• Week-14 = at CAR

Much like Joe Flacco last year, Ryan might start out very slow for Fantasy 2011 and go crazy after Week-5. The way I have played Ryan in the past 2 years is (if I wind up with him) as a backup because he is a nice insurance chip...but also a nice QB to juggle when your main QB draws a bad opponent or bad weather. If your main QB hits a rough opponent or two, and it matches with Ryan playing at home-dome...it's a huge advantage to have Ryan interjected into your starting lineup on those weeks.

Speaking of Ryan at home, it's key to know the following if you consider this proposed plan of Ryan as your backup target via draft or early season trade in 2011:

 

Ryan likes a dome, and he likes his home-dome...

Matt Ryan enjoys "home-dome cooking":

• 13 TDs and 3 INTs in 7 games (not including Week-17), and 16.9 FF PPG (4 pts per TD) in 2010
• 11 TDs and 4 INTs in 5 games, and 15.4 FF PPG in 2009
• Combined 24 TDs and 7 INTs in 12 home/dome games in the past 2 seasons

Contrast that with his away performance:

• 13 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games, and 14.0 FF PPG in 2010
• 9 TDs and 8 INTs in 7 games, and 13.1 FF PPG in 2009
• 22 TDs and 14 INTs in 15 games away games in the past 2 seasons

Not that Ryan is terrible on the road, it's just he has a very favorable Fantasy Football lean at home. At home in the last 3 seasons Ryan has a 19-2 record. He missed 2 home games due to injury in 2009...and the Falcons lost both of them. On the road, Ryan has a 14-10 record. A fast dome turf is a great venue for the Falcons record-wise, and it is a great surface and controlled temperature for comfortable QBs and WR/TEs to accumulate Fantasy stats.

 

Matt Ryan Fantasy Football Game Plan for 2011

I would skip taking Matt Ryan in a normal 10-12 team 2011 Fantasy Draft altogether, don't even waste a draft pick on him as a backup -- gamble that he will start out slow, and that the consensus turns against him (like Flacco last year), and by Week 5-6-7...Fantasy GMs are giving him away figuring it's the same ole' mediocre Matt Ryan, then make a cheap deal to bring him in as a backup the rest of the way as part of a very solid two-headed monster QB situation for the rest of your season.

Fantasy players who play in deeper 14-16+ team leagues, I would not count on him as your "sleeper" QB and bypass the more reliable elite QBs to gamble on Ryan. A slow start looms, and he may takeaway your season before it starts...and force you into making panic moves as/if Ryan underperforms. Rarely do any of us have the intestinal fortitude to hang in with a mediocre performing Fantasy QB/losing Fantasy team waiting for things to kick in for Week-6 and beyond. Don't put yourself in that situation, just pass on him and see if he comes cheaper mid-season.

Let someone else buy the "Matt Ryan Stock" when it is overpriced, and let them over-draft him in 2011. You come in, like Warren Buffett, and grab him cheap when the "blood is flowing in the streets" and Fantasy GMs are panic under-selling Ryan....just like it did exactly in 2010 with Joe Flacco.

 

 

 

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