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I am semi-remorseful to bring up the name of Devin Aromashodu. I know it could invoke painful memories for those of you that used a 5th-8th Round Draft pick on him in last year's Fantasy Football Draft, or Dynasty Leaguers who kept a roster spot warm for him going into 2010. For those of you that had buried that memory in a far away, dark place; I'm sorry to bring it up again.

For those that had Aromashodu going into 2010, or wanted him (and luckily, someone beat you to it), I know how it happened...it's logical. In the final 4 games of the Bears 2009 season, Aromashodu got a chance to finally have meaningful playing time and he had an impressive mini 4-game run. Aromashodu caught 22 passes in those 4 late season games and also had 4 TDs (including 2 TDs in Week-17) in that span. For an added "hype-bonus", Aromashodu also had a 7 catch, 150 yard game in a highly watched Monday Night Game versus Minnesota in Week-16. Additionally fueling that 2010 preseason Aromashodu-fire, is the fact that he plays for a major market/heavy fan base team and that team had/has questionable WR depth/talent.

The late-2009 statistical surge sprinkled with a little circumstantial "evidence", and Aromashodu flew from a kinda quiet 2010 Fantasy Football "sleeper" WR, to becoming almost everyone's hot "sleeper" WR pick (which how is that possible to be a "sleeper", if you're everyone's "sleeper"?).

The mainstream Fantasy Football media, by and large, ran with the Aromashodu mantra for preseason 2010 -- most every major Fantasy Football publication elevated Aromashodu to among the top 20-30 Fantasy Football WRs for the 2010 Fantasy Football Draft. It made some sense on paper -- take those 3-4 hot late season game performances and extrapolate them into full-season, throw in in some positive comments in the press from Bears coaches (how likely are they going to say bad things?), and "bam" you have an instant 2010 hot "sleeper".

The reason I am only semi-remorseful to bring up this painful (for some) memory is 3-fold:

1. We predicted this trouble ahead of time. There is satisfaction in making a "right" call on a breakout player from our scouting, but just as satisfying is also steering clear of a potential "land mine" player. Aromashodu was barely in our top-100 WRs for the preseason 2010 WR projections/rankings, and we warned about it in one of our very first published articles. *Article Archive = WR Devin Aromashodu: Fantasy Football 2010 Picks and Projections

2. I made a friendly wager with my best friend after Week-1 (a Week-1 in which Aromashodu had 5 rec and 71 yards) that Aromashodu would not have more than 25 catches on the season and no more than like 350 yards as well...also part of the bet was that Aromashodu would be cut by my BFF on his Fantasy team by Week-10, and/or the Bears would cut or trade Aromashodu by the NFL trade deadline. A cool crisp one-dollar bill was sweetly opened in the mail soon after. I think he stubbornly held on to Aromashodu until Week-4 (after 3 straight Aromashodu DNP's for the Bears). I have no major point to this item #2, I'm just taking the occasion to tease my friend in a public forum.

3. This 2009 Devin Aromashodu late-season phenomena may have an unusual psychological Fantasy Football effect on the way Fantasy GMs perceive the "Aromashodu" of this past season -- Jerome Simpson. If you were burned (or nearly burned) by Aromashodu last Fantasy Football Draft, you might be very wary of Simpson this preseason. The media being burned on this late-season phenomena may cause a tepid preseason ranking for Simpson, and possibly create some Fantasy Football Draft value.

We'll explore the potential psychology of this in a bit, but first let's learn more about Simpson through the prism of Simpson vs. Aromashodu.

If Devin Aromashodu set your heart "a flutter "with his 2009 Week 16-17 performance, then Jerome Simpson should send you into a full-scale tizzy with his 2010 Week 16-17 output.

Jerome Simpson had 3 career total receptions in 2+ seasons leading up to Week-16 last year. In a Week-16 heart breaking/playoff ending defeat of San Diego by the Bengals, Simpson had 6 catches for 124 yards and 2 TDs. Simpson followed that with a great Week-17 with 12 catches, 123 yards, and 1 TD against Baltimore. Take those 2 performances and extrapolate them for a full 16-game season -- 144 receptions, 1,976 yards and 24 TDs. That should be good enough to lead all Fantasy Football WRs in 2011, shouldn't it? The obvious question is, "how much of this performance is reliable, and how much is Aromashodu-esque"?

Unlike Aromashodu in the last year's Fantasy Football Draft, I believe Jerome Simpson is a possible undervalued play for 2011 (and beyond). Taking a look at the difference between the Simpson and Aromashodu back story may lead you to consider the same.

 

Physical measurable differences

One of the main reasons as to why we were so down on Aromashodu is a few troubling physical measurables from pre-draft measurements. On the surface, Aromashodu has a couple nice key skill measurements -- a 4.35 in the 40-yard dash is excellent, and a 39" vertical leap is well above average for an NFL WR. On those 2 measurements alone, Aromashodu stands tall. The killer measurable for Aromashodu is an 8" hand size measurement (spread your hand/fingers, measure the span of the tip of your thumb to the tip your pinky, I'll wait...). Having an 8" hand is quite small in the NFL, it's quite small within society at large...and makes it very tough to catch and hold onto the football on certain routes and coverages (and also in bad weather).

Another troubling issue for Aromashodu is his physical stature/style of play, and how it translates to the NFL. At 6'2, but only 200 +/- pounds -- Aromashodu isn't going to be your nice possession WR, catching short passes over the middle and grinding/fighting for yards...his thinner frame is not built to take that beating. Aromashodu is built to go deep and catch with his hands, battling DBs...and thus his hand size is going to be an issue -- a likely reason why he has had underwhelming receiving totals for most of his career back to college (more on that in a second).

Jerome Simpson has a lot in common with Aromashodu, physically. Simpson ran an impressive 4.42 in the 40-yard dash, and had a 37.5-38" vertical leap at the NFL Combine (40"+ at his pro-day) -- both the 40-yard and vertical measurements were fairly close to Aromashodu's. However, what Aromashodu lacks in his hand size measurement...is what Jerome Simpson brings to the party; an amazing (largest measurement we have on file) 11" hand size (go ahead get out that ruler again, look at your hand again and then look at where 11" hits...and then close your dropped jaw). Simpson's huge hand size is a tremendous advantage/asset in the NFL, and he exhibits many top-line physical attributes towards being a good NFL WR...but it is also reasonable to ask, "so what, can he play football"? When you see how Simpson produced in college, it will let you know the answer to that question quite definitively.

 

College Performance

Physical measurables are great, but college performance can be a huge tell for a WR's translation to the NFL. It is almost unheard of for an underperforming/mediocre statistical output college WR...to suddenly be great in the NFL. It does not matter what level the play, SEC, Big-10, WAC, D-I, D-II, etc...a future good/great NFL WR, was very likely a good/great WR in college (statistically).

When you compare their college statistical performances, you will see why we weren't wild about Aromashodu last year...but you will also see why we think Simpson should be taken more seriously.

Both Aromashodu and Simpson played early (as Freshman) in their college careers, but that's about all their careers had in common.

Simpson went onto break almost every Coastal Carolina receiving record, and many conference records (despite playing in a lower pass attempt offense, Mike Tolbert was their big RB most of that time...). Simpson was dominant by all measurements of college output, especially by posting 44 receiving TDs in 41 career games.

Aromashodu had little statistical excitement in college, with no greater example of his college "mediocrity" than noting that he had just 1 career college game with 5+ catches in college (6 was his career high). Jerome Simpson had 6 catches in a game in his 2nd ever game played as a true Freshman.

Even if we pare it down to just looking at only their best career season, Simpson is far superior:

Best college single season stats

WR	Games	Rec per Game	Yards per Game	TDs per Game	100 yd Rec games	Multi-TD games	College
Aromashodu	12	2.2	41.2	0.33	1	0	2005-Auburn
Simpson	12	5.1	89.8	1.33	5	5	2006-Coastal Carolina

Not only was Simpson an all-conference, league offensive MVP, record-setting type football player at Costal Carolina -- he was also a track star, who set several school records in track & field. All of Simpson's college accolades follows his High School athletic prowess -- he was a state track champion, as well as a member of the state basketball championship team...of which he was the MVP in their title game.

Simpson had the High School/College pedigree of a potential NFL star in the making in college, quite frankly Aromashodu did not.

 

What does the NFL think?

For what their NFL journey has been so far, Jerome Simpson has had a much more stable track record to this point.

Aromashodu was a 7th Round pick of the Miami Dolphins in 2006, and was subsequently cut in the very same preseason...not a good sign. He was later picked up and released by Indianapolis and Washington, until finally landing with Chicago. After becoming a blazing "hot sleeper" in the 2010 NFL/Fantasy Football preseason, he played just one semi-meaningful game and sat out most all of the rest of the 2010 season. Likely Aromashodu will be sent packing from his 4th team in 5 years before this season gets underway.

Simpson was a 2nd Round pick of the Bengals, the 42nd overall player taken in the 2008 NFL Draft, and the 6th WR taken overall. Being selected in the Top-50/2nd Round of the NFL Draft means you were very highly thought of coming out of college (3 picks later Philadelphia took DeSean Jackson, sorry Bengals fans). The Bengals have obviously retained Simpson for his entire career, and finally "took him off the leash" the last few games of 2010.

 

"Hot Stove" Psychology?

The psychology behind all this might be an interesting dynamic in 2011, one that may ultimately create a better draft valuation. People who drafted (or considered drafting) Aromashodu last year, and were subsequently burned (or almost burned)...they may not be as likely to put their hand back on that hot stove again, in the form of Simpson 2011. A lot of Fantasy GMs, and most of the mainstream Fantasy Football media/publications, drank the Aromashodu "kool-aid" last year without doing much deeper due-diligence and they jumped to an ultimately bad conclusion. I am wondering whether they might see much of the same characteristics/patterns in Simpson for this draft season and back-off him a little. Simpson may not reach that hot "sleeper" status going into August like Aromashodu did the year prior because of this psychological hesitation, and it may provide some ground cover to keep Simpson at a reasonably decent draft value in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft.

Most of the free (and non-free) world will have A.J. Green rated well ahead of Jerome Simpson (we do not) for Fantasy Football 2011. The conflict of 3 more notorious/well-thought of Bengals receiving options -- A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Jordan Shipley will potentially knock Simpson down in preseason mock drafts and draft list publications as time goes on. If Carson Palmer doesn't return, it makes Simpson's 2011 output forecast even  "muddier" and his draft status could further weaken.

I am thinking Simpson will get a little early draft "buzz" (in June/July), but I am speculating that people aren't ultimately going to "put their money where their mouth is" when push comes to shove...and I think Simpson will fall in upcoming Fantasy Football Mock Drafts.

 

Simpson outlook for 2011

We think the possibility is there for Simpson to be a "go-to" type of WR and a 2011 Fantasy Football producer, regardless of QB (although it would be a much better outlook if Palmer was the QB). Our historical statistical analysis of college WRs shows Simpson with a few relative performance metrics that jump off the charts with (and ahead of) some of the current great WRs in the NFL. There are a few red-flags on Simpson, mostly surrounding weaker agility metrics from the NFL Combine...but Simpson still rates as very athletic overall (obviously with his Track & Field history/prowess).

I freely acknowledge that there is a risk here with a 2011 Jerome Simpson Fantasy Football draft pick. Andy Dalton is an unknown, and he is not Carson Palmer (in terms of 2011 abilities). The Bengals do have a nice crop of talented WR/TE weapons, so there are potential "head-winds" on that depth chart for Simpson. The Bengals are a hard team to project from year-to-year with their unstable ownership/management, which is always an inherit risk in any Bengals player for an upcoming Fantasy Football season.

Currently, we see Simpson rated around the 35-50th ranked WR in most of the major media WR rankings for Fantasy Football 2011. In most actual early Fantasy Drafts, we see Simpson being taken in a range around the 40-60th WR overall. The media is ahead of the public at the moment, and/or the general public is not buying the initial rankings on Simpson (or maybe the psychology of the 2009 late-season Aromashodu bluff is playing a factor).

As people start to focus more intently on the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft in late-July and August, I can see Simpson staying in that 35-50th overall WR range with a likelihood of a fade towards the 50th-mark as the focus shifts heavier toward A.J. Green (who we think is good, but wildly overrated). If we want Simpson for Fantasy Football 2011, we are probably going to have to pay a little higher draft price to take the risk...and he might be worth it. The more he fades toward 40-50th WR overall, the more interested I am...I'm likely not willing to pay top 20-25 WR draft value at this point. Simpson may be worth a top-25 WR pick, but there will also likely be better value/less risky propositions still available across-the-board at that stage.

In Dynasty Leagues where you have Simpson as a carryover from last year, he's worthy of some excitement for 2011...but if I sensed an Aromashodu-2009 type hype-bubble forming going into 2011, I would trade Simpson and capitalize on the "sizzle" before it had a chance to burn me in reality.

Summary

Jerome Simpson's brief 2010 late-season explosive run was great, but having big stat games in late-season/meaningless contests can be a huge Fantasy Football head-fake. From recent conversations with Fantasy GMs, I sensed that Simpson was being looked at as an Aromashodu-like head-fake. I think that's a mistake.

We don't think Simpson is a head-fake on talent, but by no means is he a 2011 slam-dunk play given the Bengals "in flux" situation. I would like to advance the case that he should at least be taken seriously at a minimum, not blown off as a fluke. At maximum, I think Simpson could be a star in the making (in the right situation).

Whether or not this article/research helps you on a consideration/awareness for Jerome Simpson, I at least hope you can takeaway the concept of NOT taking a late 2011 Fantasy Football Draft flier on Devin Aromashodu.

 

 

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