After two-weeks, we are tracking with quite
possibly our best season start ever. We made a
lot of great calls this week on Robert
Meachem, Eric Decker, LeGarrette Blount, David
Nelson, etc. As always, there were bad calls
(we just want a 70/30 ratio good/bad, or
better)...Donald Jones, Reggie Bush, Brandon
Pettigrew.
There will be bad projections. Much of the
time, it is just a weekly blip. Sometimes, the
concept is just a few weeks ahead of its time.
They can't all work out perfect. We constantly
preach to friends and foes -- not to be too rash
in Fantasy Football. Don't dump/bench top talent
based on one bad week. We like to think of
ourselves as very prudent making Fantasy
Football evaluations. However, this is still a
game...and is very much like the stock market.
Situations change, events did unfold as
expected. When something seems obvious,
sometimes...you have to belly-up and admit a
mistake and cut your losses.
There are some early assumptions that we had
loaded into our computer analysis, that now has
to change going forward. I would like to share a
few of them:
1) We were wrong about
Cam Newton's start to 2011.
We are anti-rookie QBs for Fantasy Football
as a default. We don't care who the rookie QB
is. Rookie QBs can be solid, like Sam
Bradford last year, or Andy Dalton
(who we love) this year. Solid isn't what we
want in Fantasy Football, we want video game
type numbers from our Fantasy Football QB.
Cam Newton is putting up video game type
numbers. This is NOT an endorsement of Cam
Newton. We still have our doubts on him
being top-tier. However, it is an admission...he
is not an NFL disaster rookie situation. He's
going to hold his own, and then some. We are not
seeking Newton for our rosters, but we are
changing Fantasy Football scoring projections of
team-defenses facing him upcoming. We are also
going to upgrade Steve Smith and Greg
Olsen higher than where we had them.
We thought Newton would be an early
season/all season disaster...that was wrong,
time to change projections accordingly.
2) We were wrong about
Reggie Bush
Quite frankly, this one p's me-off. This play
didn't cost us much in the 2011 Fantasy Football
Draft, which is what part of the beauty of it
was -- the bet that Miami would be crazy not to
get Bush 15+ touches per game (air & ground).
Furthermore, the bet that Daniel Thomas
was not a capable feature RB (the Dolphins
thought that too, thus bringing in Larry
Johnson).
I'm watching various games today, and I am
watching the way the Saints utilize Darren
Sproles and the Chargers usage of Mike
Tolbert in the passing game...then I am
watching Reggie Bush on the sidelines as
Chad Henne throws the ball all over the
field to no one (18 incomplete passes to 12
completed), as the Dolphins go down in flames. I
have no idea what goes through the minds of the
Dolphins decision makers. From their bizarre
owner, to interviewing Jim Harbaugh while
still employing Tony Sparano, to not
trading for Kyle Orton...now ultimately,
why did you trade for Reggie Bush? Bush
is one of the fastest players in the NFL, and
yet the Dolphins only get him the ball
up-the-middle. Why wouldn't you work in a play
or two where you get him out in space? Why not
line him up as a 3rd-4th WR on some packages and
create miss-matches. Nope...just line Bush up in
the backfield and then Henne never look at him,
just Henne throwing to open grass.
I could stomp up and down with reasons as to
how, and how not, Bush should be used -- but,
what do I know is going on behind the scenes?
However, I know what (I think) I see, and I can
do the math -- bad organizational
decision-making for months/years now...why would
we expect different now? A kinda do-or-die game
this week for the Dolphins franchise, but now
two home losses in-a-row. The Dolphins hit the
road for two weeks (CLE/SD), a BYE week, then
the Jets. The Dolphins will be (1-4) or (0-5)
and season over. Regardless, I have no idea how
they are going to use Bush for the next few
weeks. I hedged that they would try to ride him
early, and I was wrong.
Bush cost us little, besides the pride of
thinking he could be a cheap feature RB for
2011. Only a 5th-7th Round Fantasy Football
Draft pick typically. A nice Week-1, mostly on
my clients bench in Week-2. Now going to be
jettisoned into waivers or trade in traditional
12-team Fantasy Football leagues.
We have blasted Daniel Thomas, and he
looked very good this past week...which
aggravates this more. We are definitely not sold
on Thomas at all, but right now...we're a
disaster calling the Miami RB situation, so I'm
out. Maybe, I'll scoop up Larry Johnson,
or Lex Hilliard, or Larry Czonka
on waivers.
3) Never bet against
Kenny Britt
We review tape of Kenny Britt, and
nothing seems to grab/excite us. It's always a
"lucky" TD, it seems to us. Last week, he had an
80-yard TD...and it was a very fluky/lucky TD.
We see an inordinate amount of DBs falling down,
or quiet all game and then a late TD, etc.
However, the story always ends the same...Britt
scores a TD. Britt has a TD in 7 of his last 9
meaningful games (not counting Week-17 of 2010).
Britt had lower receptions and targets per game
last year, but he is up like 75%+ on targets and
receptions year-over-year. No more fighting it
with logic...the overriding logic is Britt =
TDs.
Part of the Fantasy Football game is
adjusting and adapting to situations smartly and
swiftly, not holding onto personal bias or fear
of being wrong. My old boss used to say -- "fail
fast, and move on."
Moving on with Newton, Bush and Britt....
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