*For those not familiar with Dynasty League
Rules -- it is a Fantasy Football game that is
more similar to owning a real NFL team, as the
team owners are allowed to keep a set amount (or
all) of their players from one year to the next
(not like traditional Fantasy Football where all
the players go back in the pool to start each
new season). Dynasty Leagues also have a Rookie
Draft of the incoming NFL rookies (usually in
May/June/July), held similarly like the NFL
Draft, in which they then draft/retain those
rookie players rights for the upcoming season.
This article is with a Dynasty League slant,
but is likely of interest for anyone curious
about the incoming rookies.
There are a ton of variations of Dynasty
Leagues/rules, but when I set up my "usual"
Rookie Draft board for a Dynasty League, I look
at it from the following angles:
- I am looking for more superstar returns
-- I would rather swing and miss...looking
for a Home Run, rather than hit a bunch of
singles and doubles. Mediocre players are
available all over...I want a potential
future star; and I'm willing to "whiff"
along the way...I know it is all part of the
NFL/FF/Dynasty Draft game.
- Issues on early play potential with the
current depth chart of the NFL team the RB
was drafted onto is a key factor -- our
computer analysis may love a players skill
set...but if he isn't likely to play this
year (or in 2 or 3 years...) because of the
talent ahead of him, then maybe we're not as
likely to take our "best" rated player if
the situation isn't favorable. It just
depends upon all the roster circumstances.
- This is based on what we know/speculate
in June 2011...in July, August, etc we
could have radical changes. Especially based
upon where the undrafted rookies sign.
I'm going to make this Mock Draft based on
having the right to keep anyone on my roster
from one year to the next, but I will also note
1-2 year future outlook for those Fantasy GM's
who have limitations on how many players can be
kept under wraps from one season to the next.
=========
There are no TEs that are jumping off the
charts for us this draft season. There are
plenty of interesting TEs, but no TEs that just
light our computer on fire...unlike last year
where Rob Gronkowski and Dennis Pitta
jumped off the charts. If I could interject
(suddenly) forgotten TE prospects from last
year's NFL/Dynasty Draft...I might would
probably rather have Pitta right now, and
(maybe) Clay Harbor (PHI) over anyone in
this 2011 class.
The first 4 or 5 TEs on this list are
intriguing for Fantasy Football, especially
Virgil Green...that's a definite "lottery
ticket" pick. The best, "most likely to succeed"
to our computer/statistical analysis (in this
class) is Lance Kendricks from Wisconsin,
now teamed with Sam Bradford. Most people
favor Kyle Rudolph, but the picture is a
little murky there given the injury battles, low
bench press and slow foot speed. After you get
past about #8 on this TE list, the Fantasy
Football upside really starts to fall off. TEs
are a tricky group, that we believe the QB they
get to play with is 51% of their NFL outlook.
Rookie TEs very, very, very rarely
breakthrough with big stats in their rookie
season as it is...so every prospect on here is
likely some kind of waiting game. I wrestled
with this top-3, changing the order several
times and you probably will as well. The best
way to judge between the top-3 (or 4) TEs here
for Fantasy Football is by also projecting what
QB they will play with in the NFL. If you think
the Cardinals won't make a move for a frontline
QB, don't touch Rob Housler. If you think
Tim Tebow is bust, Virgil Green
may then take years to put up big stats (if
ever). We're intrigued by Green and Housler's
physical tools, but Kendricks is very good
across the board and we know he (likely) has a
frontline QB to play with for years to come.
#1
= Lance Kendricks, St Louis Rams (Wisconsin)...Kendricks
graded at the top of this class (for us) as a receiving TE translating
to the NFL. Good speed, better agility for a
TE...and was also one of the top bench press TEs
in this 2011 class. Our biggest concern is that
he is little under-sized for the NFL (6'2+, 243
pounds), but his strength measurements balance
that out some. He lands in a great spot for his
skills, Kendricks projects to thrive in a high
passing game/spread type system...and he goes to
the perfect place with the Rams, and gets to
work with a capable QB in Sam Bradford.
My hesitation with Kendricks is -- the Rams have
a bunch of interesting TEs (especially Fendi
Onobun), and also a bunch of young WRs
now....the Rams may become like the New Orleans
Saints for Fantasy Football -- a fast pace
offense that spreads the ball to several
weapons, which is great for the NFL...but
maddening for Fantasy Football.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Dustin Keller
#2 = Virgil Green, Denver Broncos
(Nevada)...Green is the best overall athlete
in the 2011 TE class. The 4th fastest and most
agile measured of the group, with the longest
Broad Jump (and it wasn't close) and the 2nd
highest vertical jump recorded among TEs in our
entire historical database. Green might rate
higher, but he was just mediocre in measuring
his on-field performance metrics (relative to
the offense he played in). The fear is
that he is another great athlete, who you hope
strikes lightning and learns how to be a great
TE in the NFL. Green has the kind of measurables
you want to take a shot at for a long-term
gamble play in a Dynasty League. There is not
much challenge on the Broncos TE depth chart,
but we don't expect him to start right away...he
may take a year to develop.
Push come to shove, I might take Green over
Housler and Kendricks in a Dynasty draft. The
last few years of NFL/Dynasty Draft's are loaded
with nice TEs...but not dominant (so far) TEs.
Green has some measureables where he may be that
star TE -- a smaller Rob Gronkowski with
speed and athleticism. The Denver QB situation
makes me pause a bit -- I'm not sold on Tim
Tebow as an elite passer, and if he becomes
a solid Vince Young-type NFL QB...that's
not great (Fantasy Football-wise) for WRs and
TEs that play with him. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = "Poor man's" Jimmy
Graham
#3
= Rob Housler, Arizona Cardinals (Florida
Atlantic)...only trails Virgil Green as the
most athletic TE in the 2011 class. He ran the
fastest 40-yard dash (4.46) of the 2011 class.
To put that kind of speed, for a TE, into
perspective...we have only 8 TEs in the past 5+
years (in our database) with a sub 4.5 40-yard
dash, and only 3 of the 8 ran faster times; and
only 2 of those 8 TEs are over 6'5 (the other
basketball player turned TE, Fendi Onobun). When
we see TEs with his kind of speed, it usually
means they are smaller...or TEs who aren't
skilled players, but are great athletes. Housler
is a "tweener" on size for a TE at 6'5+, 248
pounds...not small, but not a bulky TE likely to
excel at blocking. The
only TE we see that can beat Housler for a
combination of speed,
agility, strength, and actual high-level college
performance is Vernon Davis (and Davis wins by a
mile, no one can touch Davis's physical
measureables for a TE).
Besides the great resume', we think Housler
landed in a perfect Fantasy Football situation
in Arizona...there is none, zero, zip pressure
from any TE currently on the Cardinals roster.
We love (for example) Dennis Pitta, TE for the
Ravens (2010 draftee)...but Pitta has Todd Heap
ahead of him, and a very good Ed Dickson drafted
in 2010 as well -- the path for Pitta to succeed
in Fantasy Football has several speed bumps.
There is one, very removable, speed bump with
Housler -- the current Arizona QB situation.
I
absolutely believe that the Cardinals 2011 (or
2012) QB is not on the roster right now, if the
Cardinals were to pick up Kevin Kolb or
Carson
Palmer or Kyle Orton...I would get
really excited about Housler for immediate
impact, although
history dictates you shouldn't get excited about
a rookie TE (for Fantasy Football). Lance
Kendricks is probably the safe choice to be
the #1 TE overall, but Housler's speed, agility,
and overall athleticism makes us want to take
the dice roll on possible greatness. BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Greg Olsen
#4 = Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (Notre
Dame)...Rudolph is typically everyone's top 2011
TE, but we are a little hesitant for Fantasy
Football. He has great size (6'6, 259 pounds),
but ran very slow times pre-NFL draft. I know he
is coming an injury (and we are a little worried
about Rudolph's injury problems), but he may be more of a
lumbering TE that will be solid for an NFL
team...but not that exciting for Fantasy
Football. For his size, he had a very weak bench
press...it may take him a year to get adjusted
to the NFL. Given that he may be playing with
rookie level type QBs for the next couple
seasons, not sure I see the QB helping his cause
in the next year or two. I see the upside, but I
see red-flags too. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH
= Brandon Pettigrew
#5 = Schuylar Oordt,
Undrafted Free Agent
(Northern Iowa)...I'm not sure why Oordt wasn't
drafted, if there is something off-field...we
aren't aware of it. Oordt is a big 6'5+, 261
pound TE, that has above average speed (for a
TE) and the 2nd best agility measurements among
the 2011 TE class. Oordt was also productive
on-the-field -- you might look at his 2010 stats
(24 rec, 405 yds, and 3 TDs) and yawn, but Oordt
played in a very low pass attempt offense (N.
Iowa averaged 11 completions, 166 yards, and
less than 1 passing TD per game). Oordt was a
team leader in TDs with 5 his junior season.
There are some of unknowns, but late in the
Dynasty Draft he might be worth a flyer...or (at
minimum) it will impress your friends.... BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = kinda a poor man's Tony
Scheffler
#6 = Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns
(USC)...Cameron has a lot in common with
Rob Housler (above) physically... he's fast,
agile, strong, tall (6'5), they are almost
identical...except in one area. Housler was a
main part of his college offense, and Cameron
could barely be found on the stat sheet. Cameron played one season
at USC, sitting as a backup WR/TE most of his
career. When he did play last season, he
compiled just 126 yards in 9 games...and only 1 TD.
Whether it is at a D-I powerhouse school or all
the way down to JuCo -- successful NFL TEs were
typically some level of successful/productive in
college (if they played). Had Cameron jumped
straight from basketball to the NFL Draft,
barely or never playing...it would be one thing/mystery,
but that's not his story. He wasn't overly
productive as a JuCo player in 2007 either. We are
intrigued by the measurables, but very nervous
about his lack of productivity. He will need
time to develop, this pick would take
patience...potentially with no gold at the end
of the rainbow.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Mickey
Shuler and Jacob Tamme (without Peyton Manning
throwing to him)
#7 = Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins
(Tulsa)...one of the most productive TEs of the
2011 group. His 28 career TDs dwarves the next
best TE in
this class for career TDs (Virgil Green 11), but
Clay did play in a more high pass attempt
offense...still his output was fantastic. Clay
is a little under-sized for a TE at 6'2+, 245
pounds and had a lower than you'd like bench
press. Clay maybe more of a slow big-WR, than a
solid NFL TE. Clay's output/receiving skills are
so good you have to pay attention...and used in
the right situation, he could flourish -- but
looking at Miami's current and long-term
prognosis at QB/coach; it's hard to project Clay too
high. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Brent Celek
#8 = Luke Stocker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Tennessee)...a lot of people are making the
argument that Stocker is the next Jason Witten.
The only basis for this comparison is they are
both big, played for Tennessee, and are both
TEs. From a talent standpoint, we have limited
data on Witten from college...but what we can
measure, Witten (played with Casey Clausen, not
Peyton Manning) was a much better on-field
performer in college than Stocker. Witten
also missed his senior season. Stocker had a
decent junior season with 5 TDs, but all of
those TDs
came against teams with losing records or
schools much lower in class then U.T. (he had 2
TDs against Western Kentucky). Stocker is a good
size, and projects to be a good blocker (not my
favorite Fantasy Football attribute, but it's
nice) as he out-benched (press) everyone in the
2011 TE class. There are some similarities
between Witten and Stocker, but I think most of them are made
from convenience of both playing Tennessee.
BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Joel Dreessen
#9 = Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (Portland
State)...Thomas is a solid TE prospect, a good
basketball player as well as TE at Portland
State. Thomas has better than average TE speed
and agility, but is probably the weakest
(strength-wise) TE of the 2011 class (based on a
very low bench press). If Thomas turns into
something for Fantasy Football/NFL, it will
probably take 2-3 years. Given that
teammate/2011 rookie Virgil Green
is a much better athlete, and a little more
accomplished...Thomas may struggle to play with
Denver. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Tony
Moeaki
#10 = DJ Williams, Green Bay Packers
(Arkansas)...there are a lot of confusing things
surrounding Williams, that scare us for his
long-term viability. First, Green Bay has
Jermichael Finley coming back, as well as a
decent backup TE in Andrew Quarless...why do
they need DJ Williams, and how will Williams
jump ahead of all these guys? Secondly, if
Williams was a jaw-dropping TE prospect, then I
could see why the Packers couldn't pass him
up....but Williams is nothing special that we
see. A very short (6'2.1) TE, who has some
speed...but low agility measurements. Williams
has decent stats in college, but in that
spread/high pass attempt offense --
Williams should have been amazing, and he had
just 627 yards and 4 TDs in 13 games. I just
don't see what all the excitement is about as a
prospect, plus he lands on a very competitive
roster for TEs. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Fred Davis
#11 = David Ausberry, Oakland Raiders
(USC)...classic Raiders draft pick, Ausberry is
the 2nd fastest 40-yard dash (4.48) time in the
2011 TE class. Ausberry is a WR turned TE. He
has the speed, with decent agility, and good
strength based on his bench press. What Ausberry
didn't do, is light up the stat sheet at USC.
Just 20 receptions, 252 yards and 4 TDs last
season in 10 games. We would expect a higher
output based on his physical gifts. Ausberry
missed games here and there, and
underperformed...which makes him a shaky
prospect. However, he has the kind of physical
tools potentially worth taking a gamble on.
BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Craig Stevens
#12 = Collin Franklin, Undrafted (Iowa
State)...A solid, not spectacular
prospect...we like his blocking metrics, and
that could/should lead to playing time. As a
receiver he is decent. He may surprise a team in
another year or two, and don't be surprised if
he is playing some in 2011. Could be a bit of a
Jason Witten like TE, but that may be a stretch.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = John Carlson
#13 = Michael Higgins, Undrafted
(Nebraska-Omaha)...a pure
speculation/developmental name. Higgins is an
under-sized TE...more like a slow/thin/big WR.
Had very good productivity in college (against
lesser competition), and is faster and more
agile than most TEs, with a great vertical.
However, very undersized with a weak bench
press. If Higgins sees the NFL, it will probably
take 1-2 years in the weight room. BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Evan Moore
#14 = Daniel Hardy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Idaho)...in almost every measurement in our
system, whether physical or on-field, Hardy
measured average or below-average. We don't see
anything special here from a receiving/Fantasy
Football perspective. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Billy Bajema
#15 = Lee Smith, New England
Patriots
(Marshall)...this is a classic blocking TE, in
the mold of current Patriots TE Alge Crumpler.
The Pats already have their great receiving TEs,
there is no Fantasy Football upside with Smith
on the Patriots. Not much more to say here, no
interest at all for Fantasy Football.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Daniel Coats
#16 = Richard Gordon, Oakland Raiders
(Miami, Fla)...Gordon looks more like a
possible move to FB or a developmental lineman,
not a TE with high receiving skills. 6 catches
in 5 games last season, and 10 catches in his 10
game career, and NO TDs. Not sure what the
Raiders are doing here, but it doesn't look like
anything good from a Fantasy Football
perspective. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Alge
Crumpler
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