See Part 1 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 1 of 5
See Part 2 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 2 of 5
See Part 3 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 3 of 5
See Part 4 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 4 of 5
*For those not familiar with Dynasty League
Rules -- it is a Fantasy Football game that is
more similar to owning a real NFL team, as the
team owners are allowed to keep a set amount (or
all) of their players from one year to the next
(not like traditional Fantasy Football where all
the players go back in the pool to start each
new season). Dynasty Leagues also have a Rookie
Draft of the incoming NFL rookies (usually in
May/June/July), held similarly like the NFL
Draft, in which they then draft/retain those
rookie players rights for the upcoming season.
This article is with a Dynasty League slant,
but is likely of interest for anyone curious
about the incoming rookies.
There are a ton of variations of Dynasty
Leagues/rules, but when I set up my "usual"
Rookie Draft board for a Dynasty League, I look
at it from the following angles:
-
I am looking for more superstar returns
-- I would rather swing and miss...looking
for a Home Run, rather than hit a bunch of
singles and doubles. Mediocre players are
available all over...I want a potential
future star; and I'm willing to "whiff"
along the way...I know it is all part of the
NFL/FF/Dynasty draft game.
-
Issues on early play potential with the
current depth chart of the NFL team the RB
was drafted onto is a key factor -- our
computer analysis may love a players skill
set...but if he isn't likely to play this
year (or in 2 or 3 years...) because of the
talent ahead of him, then maybe we're not as
likely to take our "best" rated player if
the situation isn't favorable. It just
depends upon all the roster circumstances.
-
This is based on what we know/speculate
in May 2011...in June, July, August, etc we
could have radical changes. Especially based
upon where the undrafted rookies sign.
I'm going to make this Mock Draft based on
having the right to keep anyone on my roster
from one year to the next, but I will also note
1-2 year future outlook for those Fantasy GM's
who have limitations on how many players can be
kept under wraps from one season to the next.
We are starting this series of
articles/research with our RBs rated #21-31
overall, and we will be releasing the next
article containing the next group of 5 rated RBs
(moving from #20 to #1) every couple days over
the next week or so. You may be interested to know
that 7 undrafted rookie RBs are on our Mock
Draft of 31 RBs, and 2 of those undrafted
rookies are in our top-7 overall. Stay tuned to
find out who...
**See our home page for historical
information on ratings for past NFL RBs at
www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com
What I would do....
Below is our top-5 rated Dynasty leagues RBs
for the rookie draft. Honestly, I am not very
excited about it...
We have a tendency to fall madly in love with
rookies. We love that they've never played at
the NFL level...and the possibilities (in our
hearts) are "endless". Yet, year-after-year they
come into the NFL mostly with little impact and
are long forgotten a year later. I'd rather have
Ryan Matthews than anyone in this 2011
class, and I'd probably take CJ Spiller
ahead of them too...however you could probably
trade the rights to Mark Ingram for
either of them, and then some. This 2011 is
class is not exciting, they don't rate highly in
our statistical analysis...there is not (to us)
a slam dunk prospect in this group. Roy Helu
could be the best of this group, and I wouldn't
be shocked...or Anthony Allen. Don't fall
too hard in love with anyone in this RB group,
if anything I would be (and have been) trading
back to load up on more picks to take the more
intriguing low risk/high reward RBs -- Allen
Bradford, Mario Fannin, Nic
Grigsby, Baron Batch, etc.
*If you do take a Mario Fannin or
another of our long shots, and it doesn't work
-- please hate me quietly, I'm not on a platform
barking to you that anyone in this 2011 RB class
is the greatest and that your missing out on the
next Gale Sayers with some of these
"deeper sleepers". There is a ton of risk,
because many of our top rated RBs weren't
drafted by an NFL team...they could be mental
disasters, psychological issues, etc. I'm only
advancing their case for you to do your own
due-diligence on...or just trust us blindly,
either way don't marry yourself whole-heartedly
to anyone in this group. They are
assets/commodities to be maneuvered, not your
family members (except on Sunday's).
Don't let "rookie lust" consume you...look
back at the last few draft's of the top-10
drafted (by the NFL) RBs; to gain perspective:
2010 = Last year's top RB was
undrafted LeGarrette Blount. The first 10
RBs taken in 2010, barely had an impact.
Jahvid Best had 2 great weeks, Ryan
Mathews was hurt and CJ Spiller
didn't play much...and those were the "good
ones" that everyone just had to have last year.
I do love last year's class 10x better than this
one...even my other fave from last year (not
named Ryan Mathews) -- Ben Tate,
never made it out of preseason (ACL).
2009 = Knowshon Moreno
has been good and hurt, and LeSean McCoy
(5th RB taken) has been very good. Everyone else
has been a dud. RBs taken 6th-10, just 2 years
later, are virtually unrecognizable names.
2008 = The best RB draft
possibly ever, and by comparison the 2011 group
is a laugh. Darren McFadden, Jonathan
Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris
Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles,
Peyton Hillis. Charles was the 10th RB
taken, Hillis the 25th...there is typically
great RB value late, or undrafted.
2007 = Adrian Peterson,
and Marshawn Lynch...followed by 25
immaterial picks. There is no obvious Adrian
Peterson in this 2011 RB class, but there
are 4-5+ Marshawn Lynch's available.
When I draft for Dynasty, I want to find a
superstar...and I'm not bummed about missing out
on one; because the NFL does it all the time.
However, I am not going to pigeon-hole myself
into only paying attention to RBs who got
drafted. Did we not learn anything from 2010?
Leading rusher -- undrafted Arian
Foster, who may be the #1 pick in most 2011
FF Drafts. Top rookie rusher in 2010, undrafted
LeGarrette Blount. This is not the NBA,
where this type of long shot story almost/never
happens (an undrafted player suddenly becomes
the best player in the league). NFL RBs are even
different than late-drafted NFL QBs...we make
documentaries about late round QBs who become
elite (Brady), or undrafted rags-to-riches
(Warner)...because it is so rare. Undrafted
RBs....yawn...Arian Foster, LeGarrette
Blount, Fred Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis,
(all among the top-20 rushers for
2010)...undrafted/late-drafted RB's that are
real legit NFL prospects are available quite a
bit.
Mikel Leshoure is our #1 Dynasty RB
(we changed the order of Vereen, Leshoure and
Hunter multiple times leading into this).. Would
I bet my house on it?...no. I probably wouldn't
bet a dollar on it. I'm intrigued by Mikel
Leshoure statistical ratings (and the
LaDainian comps we saw), but I'm scared of
Jahvid Best splits. This is our list
today, but if you have Roy Helu at the
top of yours, or Ryan Williams...I
don't think that is a crime. Our major point --
don't get over-invested in these high picks and
realize that there is as good a value late in
the draft as there is early on. Do a
"Belichick", trade backwards accumulating more
picks/assets if you can. Trade the hype, it's
always worth more than reality...to a "sucker".
Recent history of our #1 rated statistical
analysis of incoming college RBs, by year:
2011 DYNASTY LEAGUE MOCK
DRAFT LIST = RBs (#1-5)
#1 = Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions
(Illinois)...Leshoure was our #1 rated
"power RB" for the 2011 NFL Draft, however,
Jahvid Best poses a major
threat to his productivity. With Kendall Hunter (below),
you can see the end is near for Gore. For
Leshoure, Jahvid Best isn't old and also grades out
elite as well. Leshoure will get carries and
likely be the better Fantasy Football pick over
Best, as Leshoure will probably get the short
yardage/TD work. Leshoure is a potentially very
good/great NFL RB, without Best in the way he
would be a no-brainer #1 on this list. Leshoure has
great size (6'0, 227) with decent speed and very
good agility, plus he had a tremendous statistical
year in a power conference in 2010 with 1,697
yards and 20 TDs.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Toby Gerhart (with
many LaDainian Tomlinson
tendencies)
#2
= Kendall Hunter, San Francisco
49ers (Oklahoma State)...Hunter may have
been the best RB available in the 2011 NFL
Draft, he was our #1 rated "speed RB" in the
2011 class. Hunter had 20 games with 100+ yards
rushing in his career at Oklahoma State, with
his Sophomore and Senior seasons both over 1,500
yards rushing. He was as productive in college
as any incoming RB, as well he showed good speed
and great agility at the NFL Combine. Not only
fast, but strong...with a top level bench press
among all RBs. There is nothing bad to say about
Kendall Hunter. The Fantasy Football issue is
Frank Gore -- Hunter is not likely to step
in right away and takeover...however, given
Gore's injury issue past and age -- Hunter may
not be far from starting as the feature RB for
San Fran. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Ray
Rice
#3 = Shane Vereen, New England
Patriots (California)...Vereen is not our
even in the top-5 statistically/computer rated
RB. To have Vereen sitting near the top of this
Mock Draft list is the convergence of a couple
of intriguing factors. First, let's talk about
what makes Vereen unique -- we have never seen a
prospect on our "speed RB" list, with such an
incredible bench press at the NFL Combine (31
bench reps, smaller/speed RBs average about
17-20 in our system). Vereen is physically
solid, and he has decent speed (4.49 40-yard
dash), with very good agility metrics. Vereen is
also a nice receiver out of the backfield.
The main reason he did not grade out higher
for us is that he performed well/had decent
on-field performance stats in college -- but not
as overly impressive stats as you might hope
based on the physical measureables. Vereen is an
interesting physical specimen, but we like his
Fantasy Football value because he could/will
likely start for the Patriots right away.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is not that great of
NFL RB (he had a very good 2010, he is a free
agent -- and we bet he will be gone from NE in
2011). Danny Woodhead may not be able to
take a consistent NFL beating and will be more
used as a great 3rd Down type RB. The Patriots
have favored a more balanced pass/run attack
with a great Offensive Line, and have been one
of the NFL leaders in rushing TDs in the
past...Vereen could fit in perfect with the Pats
in 2011. Vereen is not a given, and Belichick
can get "whacky" with his usage of RBs...but
Vereen has the chance that many other RBs on
this list don't have -- a chance to start right
away in a great offense (potentially facing the
Jets 2x a season is not a great factor).
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Knowshon Moreno
#4 = Allen Bradford, Tampa Bay (USC)...This
is one of those "feast or famine" picks.
Bradford may be the best RB in this year's
draft, or a major flame out. Bradford is like a
faster Peyton Hillis, or a less
productive in college Michael Turner.
Bradford is a 5'11, 242 pound monster (with the
2nd best bench press among RBs in this 2011
Draft) who averaged 7.2 yards per carry for USC
last season. He had limited carries in college,
but highly productive carries (big yards per
carry and decent TDs per attempt). I would call
Bradford a much better LeGarrette Blount
(a very big, athletic, but nimble RB), which makes
Bradford very hard to predict a future path on
with Blount on the same roster -- however, if
you assume Blount will blow up on or off the
field soon...Bradford could be the Bucs #1 RB
faster than anyone thought. All that great news,
but Bradford was never a superstar at USC and
then was not highly thought for the 2011 NFL
Draft...so anything hiding "behind the scenes",
we are not be aware of. Bradford is a major
sleeper for 2011 and beyond (or a crash and
burn). BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Mike
Tolbert
#5
= Delone Carter, Indianapolis Colts
(Syracuse)...Carter is part of the growing
new breed of NFL RB that aren't wowing with a
big 40-yard dash times, but they are physically
big/thick with big bench press strength and yet
are very agile. Carter landing with the Colts is
a nice fit -- Joseph Addai is aging,
Donald Brown is very good (but perpetually
injured) and Carter is a much better short
yardage option than Mike Hart or
Javarris James. Carter likely plays right
away, and may take over as the Colts "power RB"
splitting time with Brown/Addai...or even
playing more than both right away.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Jonathan Stewart
By
R.C. Fischer
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you would like to see researched?, or would like to tell us
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