See Part 1 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 1 of 5
See Part 2 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 2 of 5
See Part 3 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 3 of 5
See Part 4 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 4 of 5
See Part 5 of 5 here =
2011 Dynasty Fantasy Football League Rookie
Draft, RB Mock Draft Rankings Part 5 of 5
*For those not familiar with Dynasty League
Rules -- it is a Fantasy Football game that is
more similar to owning a real NFL team, as the
team owners are allowed to keep a set amount (or
all) of their players from one year to the next
(not like traditional Fantasy Football where all
the players go back in the pool to start each
new season). Dynasty Leagues also have a Rookie
Draft of the incoming NFL rookies (usually in
May/June/July), held similarly like the NFL
Draft, in which they then draft/retain those
rookie players rights for the upcoming season.
This article is with a Dynasty League slant,
but is likely of interest for anyone curious
about the incoming rookies.
There are a ton of variations of Dynasty
Leagues/rules, but when I set up my "usual"
Rookie Draft board for a Dynasty League, I look
at it from the following angles:
-
I am looking for more superstar returns
-- I would rather swing and miss...looking
for a Home Run, rather than hit a bunch of
singles and doubles. Mediocre players are
available all over...I want a potential
future star; and I'm willing to "whiff"
along the way...I know it is all part of the
NFL/FF/Dynasty draft game.
-
Issues on early play potential with the
current depth chart of the NFL team the RB
was drafted onto is a key factor -- our
computer analysis may love a players skill
set...but if he isn't likely to play this
year (or in 2 or 3 years...) because of the
talent ahead of him, then maybe we're not as
likely to take our "best" rated player if
the situation isn't favorable. It just
depends upon all the roster circumstances.
-
This is based on what we know/speculate
in May 2011...in June, July, August, etc we
could have radical changes. Especially based
upon where the undrafted rookies sign.
I'm going to make this Mock Draft based on
having the right to keep anyone on my roster
from one year to the next, but I will also note
1-2 year future outlook for those Fantasy GM's
who have limitations on how many players can be
kept under wraps from one season to the next.
We are starting this series of
articles/research with our RBs rated #21-31
overall, and we will be releasing the next
article containing the next group of 5 rated RBs
(moving from #20 to #1) every couple days over
the next week or so. You may be interested to know
that 7 undrafted rookie RBs are on our Mock
Draft of 31 RBs, and 2 of those undrafted
rookies are in our top-7 overall. Stay tuned to
find out who...
**See our home page for historical
information on ratings for past NFL RBs at
www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com
2011 DYNASTY LEAGUE MOCK
DRAFT LIST = RBs (#6-10)
#6a = Mario Fannin, Undrafted Free
Agent (Auburn)...Fannin clocked in as the
single fastest "power RB" in our system in 2011,
not only fast...but very nice agility metrics as
well. Not only quick, but a nice size/strength
at 5'10, 231 pounds with a solid bench press. If
you only looked at the physical measureables on
paper, and didn't know the names or the
bios...Fannin may be the highest rated RB of all
the 2011 class. How then did Fannin not get
drafted? Of all the undrafted rookie RB's...this
one is the most confounding to us. Perhaps there
is something off the field of concern, but if
so...it hasn't materialized. They simply don't
make athletes like Mario Fannin, I cannot
understand why he wasn't used more at Auburn.
I've watched a lot of video/tape of the 2011
RB class...and in a short amount of time, I get
bored. I don't get into watching too much tape
as most everyone "looks good" and my eyes are
often biased. You watch enough scouting tape and
highlights, and you start thinking..."someone,
please impress me" -- when I watched Fannin
on tape, my "jaw dropped". Please check out
Fannin on YouTube with his screen/short pass
catch & run TD against West Virginia -- it is
probably the only time an RB from this 2011 class has
made my jaw drop. Watch his overall highlight
reel on YouTube...it is unreal, considering his size with
that speed. No one likely has him on their
Dynasty Rookie Draft list, so he should be there
for a late round flier. BEST COLLEGE DATA
MATCH = Ronnie Brown or Andre Brown, you
choose...(with some Rashard Mendenhall
tendencies)
#6b = Nic Grigsby, Undrafted Free
Agent (Arizona)...If you are looking for the
single best 2011 RB prospect from an all-around
physical standpoint -- it is Nic Grigsby. A
sub-4.4 40-yard dash, the best agility metrics
among the 2011 RBs, the highest vertical jump
for a RB in our database history, the best
broad jump among the 2011 RBs, a decent size at
5'11, 199 pounds and an above average bench
press...no one is close to Grigsby physically
across-the-board in this draft, or almost any
other draft. The obvious question, why didn't
Grigsby get drafted? I read/hear -- fumble
issues (he has a decent hand-size, so no issue
there), he had some injury issues, and general
college inconsistencies.
His actual college performance was not great
in the past 2 seasons, but as a Sophomore
-- Grigsby ran for 1,153 yards and had 13 TDs.
Grigsby finished his career 2nd all-time at
Arizona with 28 rushing TDs. Honestly, I have no
idea why some team didn't take chance -- there
may be something off-field, but I have yet to
find it. If you want to "swing for the fences",
this is your pick -- knowing you may strikeout.
I doubt anyone is going to have Grigsby on their
Dynasty Rookie Draft list. BEST COLLEGE
DATA MATCH = Reggie Bush
#8 = Roy Helu, Washington Redskins
(Nebraska)...Helu has many great physical
measureables, he is big (5'11, 219) and yet
extremely fast and agile...possibly the most
agile RB in the draft. He has huge hands, which
should translate into being a very good
receiving RB. His on-field college performance
was decent, we would have hoped for better based
on the measureables...but not bad. He needs to
get stronger to become an every down RB in the
NFL...he had a red-flag level low bench press at
the NFL Combine, he is a higher injury risk by
the numbers in our system analysis. Helu walks
into a great situation with the Redskins, he
could be the "speed RB" or 3rd down RB right
away in 2011. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Felix Jones (with some Jamaal Charles)
#9
= Anthony Allen, Baltimore Ravens (Georgia
Tech)...Allen is huge, nearly 6'1 and 228
pounds with a big bench press. Not only is he
physically big, he is also extremely agile for
his size (measured one of the best for agility among all RBs in 2011). Allen
has the physical measurables as well as the very
good on-field performance metrics in our system.
Allen is a great prospect and should/would be
higher on this list, but has issues at the NFL
level for Fantasy Football with a (seemingly)
stacked Ravens RB depth chart. Allen's arrival
likely means Le'Ron McClain is gone, and
Willis McGahee is not far behind. Ray
Rice is still obviously the man, and we like
Jalen Parmele'. Allen should play right
away as a short yardage specialist, and it
wouldn't be a total shock if he start to split
carries with Rice in short order...just to get
Rice some relief. Allen barely had passes thrown
his way in college, but played in a heavy run
system...so we don't know what he is capable of
in the passing game. Allen is extremely athletic
(big vertical and good broad jump). BEST
COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Marion Barber
#10 = Alex Green, Green Bay Packers
(Hawaii)...We like Green, and we had him
rated him around Delone Carter and Anthony Allen
pre-draft...but the Packers are the less
favorable Fantasy Football fit/situation. Green
is not as massive as Carter or Allen, but
measures strong enough and is a much faster and
a much better receiver than Carter/Allen. With
James Starks, John Kuhn, Brandon Jackson,
and maybe Ryan Grant on the roster...it
is hard to see a clear path for Green to
play/takeover in GB right away. He has skills, but a logjam above
him on the roster. However, it would not shock
us if he had the most touches (rush+rec) of any
GB RB this year. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH
= Marshawn Lynch
NOTES....
You see two undrafted rookie RBs on this list at
our #6-7 overall, and you may think that I have
lost my mind...which is always possible. I am
not advancing the notion that Mario Fannin
and Nic Grigsby should be the #6 and 7
RBs off the board in a Dynasty Draft. I'm simply
advancing that my interest level in them is very
high and I would not leave the draft without
either of them. If you think that it is crazy to
have two undrafted RBs in a Top-10, keep in mind
the 2010 NFL rushing leader was undrafted (Arian
Foster) and the NFL's #1 rookie rusher from
2010 was also undrafted (LeGarrette Blount).
In fact, 4 of the Top-18 rushers in 2010 were
undrafted (Foster, Blount, Green-Ellis, Fred
Jackson)...and another 2 RBs were late 7th
Round picks (Hillis, Bradshaw). It's not
like undrafted RBs make an impact once in a
decade...20% of the Top-20 rushers of 2010 were
undrafted. 30% of Top-20 rushers in 2010
were selected in the 7th Round or undrafted.
I'm not advancing the concept of Fannin and
Grigsby to be cute, and/or to try to out-guess
who the next undrafted good/great RBs might be
-- Fannin and Grigsby measure off-the-charts,
physically. When I draft for Dynasty, and
especially when it gets to the late rounds...I
want to take a chance at greatness. I don't know
what team Fannin or Grigsby will wind up on, or
if they ever will wind up on an NFL team, or if
there is so much behind-the-scenes baggage with
them that it would make your head spin (although
I didn't find any) -- but I do know there is
something there with them that no other incoming
RBs can measure up to. I want greatness or
nothing, versus mediocrity. Fannin and Grigsby
will be on my/my clients dynasty teams
everywhere we can get them, we'll buy our
lottery ticket and see what happens.
Mario Fannin may be the best RB prospect
in this Draft, and I am not kidding or being a
contrarian. When you consider a 230+ pound RB
with 4.37 speed, with high agility, and (if you
look at online video/YouTube) a really nice
ability to catch the football downfield -- you
are staring at a RB like no other. I cannot
answer why he was not used heavy at Auburn,
there could be a lot of "skeletons"...I don't
know. I do know that I will take a cheap front
row seat to see what happens with him. Fannin
might be #1 on my list if he were taken even in
the 7th Round, and I knew what situation he was
in. If I knew exactly why he wasn't drafted...it
would change my opinion as well. For now, all I
can do is guess. I'm not leaving any Dynasty
Draft without him.
Roy Helu could very well be the X-factor
of this group. There are some things we see in
the numbers that get us excited, but there are a
few red-flags of concern. He may have a hard
time jumping right in to fray in 2011, but with
some weight room work -- he could be the best RB
in this draft long-term.
I like Anthony Allen a lot more than the
all the other higher drafted "power RBs" like
Delone Carter, Mark Ingram, and
Daniel Thomas...but I don't love the Fantasy
Football outlook in Baltimore with Ray Rice
there. We have Allen as 9th overall, but he
could easily be a top-5 talent/Fantasy Football
producer.
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