*For those not familiar with Dynasty League
Rules -- it is a Fantasy Football game that is
more similar to owning a real NFL team, as the
team owners are allowed to keep a set amount (or
all) of their players from one year to the next
(not like traditional Fantasy Football where all
the players go back in the pool to start each
new season). Dynasty Leagues also have a Rookie
Draft of the incoming NFL rookies (usually in
May/June/July), held similarly like the NFL
Draft, in which they then draft/retain those
rookie players rights for the upcoming season.
This article is with a Dynasty League slant,
but is likely of interest for anyone curious
about the incoming rookies.
There are a ton of variations of Dynasty
Leagues/rules, but when I set up my "usual"
Rookie Draft board for a Dynasty League, I look
at it from the following angles:
- I am looking for more superstar returns
-- I would rather swing and miss...looking
for a Home Run, rather than hit a bunch of
singles and doubles. Mediocre players are
available all over...I want a potential
future star; and I'm willing to "whiff"
along the way...I know it is all part of the
NFL/FF/Dynasty draft game.
- Issues on early play potential with the
current depth chart of the NFL team the RB
was drafted onto is a key factor -- our
computer analysis may love a players skill
set...but if he isn't likely to play this
year (or in 2 or 3 years...) because of the
talent ahead of him, then maybe we're not as
likely to take our "best" rated player if
the situation isn't favorable. It just
depends upon all the roster circumstances.
- This is based on what we know/speculate
in May 2011...in June, July, August, etc we
could have radical changes. Especially based
upon where the undrafted rookies sign.
I'm going to make this Mock Draft based on
having the right to keep anyone on my roster
from one year to the next, but I will also note
1-2 year future outlook for those Fantasy GM's
who have limitations on how many players can be
kept under wraps from one season to the next.
We are starting this series of
articles/research with our RBs rated #21-31
overall, and we will be releasing the next
article containing the next group of 5 rated RBs
(moving from #20 to #1) every couple days over
the next week. You may be interested to know
that 7 undrafted rookie RBs are on our Mock
Draft of 31 RBs, and 2 of those undrafted
rookies are in our top-7 overall. Stay tuned to
find out who...
**See our home page for historical
information on ratings for past NFL RBs at
www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com
2011 DYNASTY LEAGUE MOCK
DRAFT LIST = RBs (#21-31)
#21 = Derrick Locke, Undrafted
Free Agent (Kentucky)...Locke is going to be
snatched up by some NFL team when the season
starts, and don't be shocked if he is playing
right away...even if just as a kick/punt
returner. Locke is extremely fast (4.37 40-yard
dash), with good agility and good hands as a
receiver. Locke had five 100+ yard rushing games
in 9 games played...including 103 vs. Florida.
Locke seems like a high character prospect, the
only issue seems to be he is a little
under-sized at 5'8, 188 pounds. Tough to be a
frontline RB in the NFL at that weight. He had a
decent branch press, so he is not thin
framed...but it's still an issue. Watch where he
lands, he might shock some people this year (or
next). BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Garrett
Wolfe
#22 = Jordan Todman, San Diego
Chargers (Connecticut)...Todman is a bit of
enigma in our computer analysis, he has very
good speed and tested very strong at the NFL
Combine...but had heavy red-flags for poor
agility metrics. Overall Todman is athletic, he
had nice stats in college...a little less nice
when we crunch them for strength of opponent --
he is definitely worth a late gamble. An even
more major problem with Todman is that we think
Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert
are incredible NFL prospects, so I don't see
how Todman can compete with them on San Diego. A
possible way to play Todman is to see if he gets
a shot elsewhere. Not a bad late gamble, but
don't over-invest. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH
= Glen Coffee
#23 = Dion Lewis, Philadelphia
Eagles (Pittsburgh)...Lewis had a great
2009, followed by a good 2010. For on-field
performance, Lewis was a top performer -- the
issue with Lewis is all physical. Lewis is 5'7,
193 pounds with small hands and very small arms
-- on top of being a very small physical frame,
and Lewis does not run that fast, but has decent
agility. Small and semi-slow is not a great NFL
combination. I'm just not a fan, plus LeSean
McCoy and Jerome Harrison are much
better NFL RBs. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Steve Slaton
#24 = Stevan Ridley, New England
Patriots (LSU)...this draft pick totally
confused me. I'm sure Bill Belichick has a piece
of info up his sleeve, but based on what info I
can see...this makes little sense, especially
for Fantasy Football purposes. I can see that
Ridley is very agile for his size, and maybe a
good H-back or FB...but not an elite NFL RB. He
ran a slow 40-yard dash, didn't bench press
extremely well either for a "big RB." He could
be a specialist for an occasional 3rd down or
short yardage situation. Nothing about his
measurables or college performance metrics rings
"top NFL prospect," I see nothing overly special
about Ridley except his high agility
measurements. We're a little skeptical here. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Lex
Hilliard
#25 = Johnny White, Buffalo Bills
North Carolina)...I'm not sure why the Bills
used a pick on White. White is a decent RB
prospect, measuring just OK in most
everything...with no real standout feature to
get excited about. Physically, there is a lean
more towards a possible NFL bust...potentially
not agile enough to be a productive NFL RB. He
is a good 3rd RB, with good hands...but with
CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson already
there, I'm not sure why they would stretch for a
questionable RB. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Alvin Pearman
#26 = Jamie Harper, Tennessee
Titans (Clemson)...not a RB we are very
excited about. Nice size (5'11, 233 pounds), and
very strong. The red-flags we have here are very
poor agility metrics (if you are looking for big
and fast, there are 5+ RB prospects better)
translating to the NFL, and also very weak
on-field performance in 2010...with just 3.9
yards per carry, and 3.5 yards per carry when we
adjusted for strength of opponents. Very high
likelihood of bust here, as well as Chris
Johnson and Javon Ringer on the
roster. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = DeShawn
Wynn
#27 = Jay Finley, Cincinnati
Bengals (Baylor)...Finley had nice stats in
college, but measured out on the slow for speed
at the NFL Combine...as well as very limited
mobility/agility. Finley is going to have to
bulk up to be able to take an NFL beating (weak
bench press at the NFL Combine), so he is likely
1-2 years out if he is to have any NFL impact.
Bernard Scott is a much better heir
apparent to Cedric Benson, over Finley.
Finley is not a RB our system is excited about.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Kory Sheets
#28 = Graig Cooper, Undrafted Free
Agent (Miami, Fla)...Cooper was an
unspectacular RB prospect in all NFL Combine
categories, except one...one in which he is
amazingly off-the-charts on. Cooper is on par
with Roy Helu as the most agile RB's in the
draft...the issue is that he is not measuring
very straight line fast, actually rather slow.
I'm not sure what to do with rather slow, but
extremely agile...but it may be worth a look to
an NFL team to see if one measurement for the
other is off. Cooper did little exciting
statistically at Miami last year, so we are left
to assume the worse...but he at least has a
unique/special quality to be at least on a Draft
Board. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Jeremiah Johnson
#29 = Evan Royster, Washington
Redskins (Penn State)...we see nothing
special in Royster as a NFL RB prospect.
Measured very slow at the NFL Combine, not
unique/good physical measureables. Had some nice
career totals at Penn State, a deeper look
within our system (looking at strength of
opponents) showed the performance results a
little less favorably. We like the other
Redskins RBs much better than Royster.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Selvin Young
#30 = Noel Devine, Undrafted Free
Agent (West Virginia)...Devine has a lot of
great speed/agility qualities...and graded out
much, much stronger than anyone expected (24
bench press reps). The problem remains that he
is so small (5'8, 180 pounds) it is hard to see
him succeeding for long in the NFL. Probably a
kick/punt returner at best. BEST COLLEGE
DATA MATCH = Dexter McCluster
#31 = Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta
Falcons (Oregon State)...Rodgers is the
lowest RB that we graded in 2011, I have no idea
why the Falcons made this pick. Rodgers is small
at 5'7, with a small frame (196 pounds, low
bench press at the NFL Combine), ran a very slow
40-yard dash and had horrible agility metrics.
His college performance was underwhelming with
4.6 yards per carry last season. I know his name
sounds like he is fast/cool...but I am at a loss
as to what the Falcons see here. If you think he
is going to be a change of pace RB for Atlanta,
we think that is going to go to Antone Smith...and
Rodgers winds up as a special teamer, and likely
not for long based on his speed/agility metrics.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Anthony Davis
(Drafted in the NFL, wound up in the CFL)
By
R.C. Fischer
Have questions
you would like to see researched?, or would like to tell us
we are full of crap?
Email us:
contentcomment@fantasyfootballmetrics.com
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
