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Daniel Thomas is "hot" preseason
rookie RB for Fantasy Football 2011. On the
surface, it makes total sense.
When you become a 2nd Round Draft pick, it
comes with an assumed status -- it is assumed
everyone in the NFL must be smarter than "us"
(us fans, amateur scouts, non-NFL personnel,
etc), so if the Miami Dolphins use a 2nd Round
pick on a RB...then he must be really good! Why
do we do this to ourselves? Why is our knee-jerk
reaction so "neatly" packaged, a perfect two-dot
connection (high draft pick = must be good)? Why
don't we let statistical history (aka "the
facts") be the judge...or at least our first
consideration?
Excluding the 2010 RB NFL Draft class (too
soon to judge fairly), let's look at the past
decade of 2nd Round NFL Draft RBs selected.
There have been 27 RBs selected in the
period between 1999-2009, and 5 of them have
become notable "star" level RBs in the NFL (Ray
Rice, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, MJD,
Clinton Portis). With history as a judge, it
would tell us that there is a 18.5% chance that
the 2nd Round RB your team selected will become
an NFL star. If I knew nothing about football,
and I just slammed every 2nd Round Draft pick RB
as a waste and/or a "bust"...I would blindly be
right 81.5% of the time. If you think I'm
possibly judging the definition of a "star" too
critically...the next RBs to consider for "star"
worthy, after the (above) 5 mentioned are --
DeShaun Foster, Anthony Thomas, Maurice Morris,
and Kevin Faulk.
The historical data trend of 2nd Round draft
pick RBs tell us, "Daniel Thomas will
not become an NFL star RB", but the
historical stats/facts won't get in the way of a
"good story" in the mainstream Football
Media. It's easier to do the following math --
an NFL team took him 2nd Round + he had over
1,000 yards rushing twice in college + Miami has
aging RBs we no longer like...and "presto", the
equation equals up to Thomas as a future
NFL star. Daniel Thomas is likely going
to show up in early 2011 Fantasy Football Mock
Draft lists as the 2nd best rookie RB for 2011
(behind Mark Ingram, and that's a whole other
issue...).
I recently re-reviewed college tape on
Daniel Thomas, and it reconfirmed what our
statistical analysis told us -- for my money,
Thomas shows all the statistical and visual
signs of a potential NFL bust.
Statistical Scouting...
I do not profess to be an NFL scout, and I
don't want to be...in a traditional sense. If
you read the Michael Lewis book Moneyball,
you may remember one of the things that Billy
Beane turned upside down was
the "old-school" baseball player scouting
system. To put it in my words, Beane essentially
removed almost all "traditional" scouting
(scouts traveling to various games, and filing
reports, etc), and moved it to a
statistical/computer system generated
scouting...and then they did more traditional
scouting after the numbers pointed them in the
right direction. Beane partly did this because
"traditional" scouting was getting the Oakland
A's nowhere/it was highly ineffective judged
statistically...so what did they have to lose?
The Oakland A's/Billy Beane decided
not to let their eyes deceive them (as is so
likely to happen), and they converted
to computer scouting formulas/algorithms and
player value theories setting the direction of
their scouting.
When we loaded all the data on the 2011
college RBs into our Fantasy Football Metrics
computers and did our analysis, Thomas graded
out as "OK"; not a future good/great NFL RB.
A few of the reasons why our statistical
analysis/computers were unimpressed with Thomas
(in no particular order):
-
Isolating last season down to his 6 games
against teams with a winning record
(toughest competition faced), Thomas had
only 2 of these 6 games with over 100+ yards
rushing (despite averaging 121.9 yards per
game on the season). Additionally, Thomas
produced a very low/red-flag level 3.9 yards
per carry against the stronger opponents
analysis.
-
Thomas played 16 Big-12 games in the
past two seasons as the main RB for Kansas
State, and he rushed for 100+ yards in a
game just six times. Thomas only achieved
the 100+ yard rushing feat twice against
Big-12 teams with a winning record.
-
Thomas's 120+ yard rushing games ("big stats
games") the last 2 seasons:
- 269 yards against North Texas State
(3-9) in 2010
- 234 yards against UCLA (4-8) in 2010
- 185 yards against Kansas (3-9) in 2010
- 181 yards against Iowa State (5-7) in
2010
- 145 yards against Colorado (3-9) in 2009
- 139 yards against Tennessee Tech (FCS/D-II)
in 2009
- 137 yards against Missouri State (FCS/D-II)
in 2010
- 136 yards against Louisiana-Layfayette
(6-6) in 2009
Looking at the colleges above, it's not a
list of juggernauts (no team with a winning
record, or it was an FCS/D-II team). Our system
would maintain that Thomas's overall stats are
pumped by big performances against weaker
schools.
Thomas has been a proficient TD producer with
30 TDs in last two seasons (25 games). However,
nearly half of those rushing TDs came against
non-conference opponents (9 games)...the best of
those non-conference opponents being Syracuse in
2010.
Thomas ran one of the slowest 40-yard dash
times at the NFL Combine, among our "Power RB"
prospects. Slower and big (Thomas is 230 pounds)
can be OK if teamed with very good agility
measurements, but that was not the case for
Thomas as he produced some of the worse agility
metrics among the "Power RB" group.
Thomas's doesn't grade out great physically,
and his very good college rushing totals have
some holes in them. On paper, there is not a ton
I see to get excited about.
Visual Scouting
I do watch scouting tape after the numbers
speak first. When I watch tape of Thomas, I
rarely/never see any "wow" runs on his highlight
reel. Thomas has a lot of plodding 5-15 yard
runs through wide open holes -- and he always
seemed to be caught from behind quickly and
easily by pursuing defenders, plus he was
tackled without much effort for his bigger (230
pound) size. Da'Rel Scott, on the other
hand, looked like "Sonic the Hedgehog" (only
much bigger). No one was catching Scott in open
space, while Thomas seemed to always be brought
down by pursuers.
I bring up the Da'Rel Scott
comparison, because most Fantasy Football GMs
probably aren't aware of Da'Rel Scott's
existence (7th Round pick NYG). We're not high
on Scott either, as he is loaded with red-flags,
but he definitely looked 10x better than
Thomas...as have most 2011 RBs I've watched on
tape.
When the player's performance metrics and
visual scouting lineup in the same direction, I
lose no sleep grading a prospect low (if both
scouting tests are bad) despite what everyone
else in the Fantasy Football Media is saying.
Daniel Thomas the
"messiah"
Daniel Thomas is being "pumped" as
some kind of savior for Miami this preseason, a
definitive/no-doubt-about-it starting RB for the
Dolphins right away. Why is that so "assumed"?
Before we even enter the discussion of
question-marks on Thomas from a talent
standpoint, I don't believe that Thomas will be
an opening starter for Miami for two
other reasons:
-
I think the Dolphins will re-sign one (or
both) of their free agent RBs (Ronnie
Brown and/or Ricky Williams). If
the Dolphins sign either/both free agent
RBs, then there will be a RB "job share" at
a minimum...with Brown or Williams as the
starter opening day.
-
If the Dolphins don't sign either Brown or
Williams, or even if they sign only one of
them...the most likely thing to expose the
flawed thought of Thomas's starting chances
is if/when the Dolphins sign a free-agent
RB, like Ahmad Bradshaw or
DeAngelo Williams.
The moment that NFL players can be signed,
and the Dolphins re-sign (let's say) a Ronnie
Brown...then a little of the air goes out of the
Daniel Thomas balloon. If/when the
Dolphins sign a Bradshaw or Williams, there will
be a stampede toward the exits on Thomas for
Fantasy Football 2011.
In our opinion, Daniel Thomas's
Dolphins situation is being massively over-sold
to all of us. What is being under-sold to
all of us, is the fact that Daniel
Thomas might not really be that good.
It may seem "crazy" to call Thomas's NFL
prospects into question when everyone else
isn't, but I do have 81.5% of the 2nd Round RBs
selected by NFL teams from 1999-2009 not
becoming star on my side of the gamble.
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