I thought we were done talking about Tim
Tebow for Fantasy Football 2011?
Haven't we all attended the secret meeting in
where we all agreed to switch our opinion from
fawning over and coddling Tim Tebow, and
now we have all agreed to do a complete
180-degree turn -- and now are encouraged to
openly discuss that "he has no business being an
NFL starting QB"? Or, was that just a secret
meeting of the mainstream sports-media?
Three weeks ago, Kyle Orton was on his
way to Miami; and Tim Tebow's virtues of being a
"winner" and a "leader" were extolled/jammed
down out throats at every turn. In a rapid about-face, in the span of about 48 hours in the
past week or so, a Broncos teammate questioned
Tebow's viability and actual ability to be the
team's starting QB. The next thing you know a
few commentators then questioned Tebow's QB
abilities for the NFL-level...and the floodgates
opened. The same mainstream media that brought
us hard-hitting analysis of Tebow as a
"hard-worker", and a player who would
"surprise us in the NFL",
now that same media suddenly all (in virtual lock-step) switched
over to question whether Tebow could even be the
Broncos 2nd-string QB this year.
As a side-note, keep in mind this is the same
media that we are likely getting all of our NFL
analysis/"insider" info from. That's why I
haven't watched the mainstream sports-media news
during this entire preseason process, and am
keeping it to a bare minimum at all times --
great at reporting factual events, bad at
diversity of in-depth opinion (there are
exceptions of course, Trent Dilfer, Merrill
Hoge, Colin Cowherd, Skip Bayless...but they
are not typically given equal spotlight in the
mainstream...they are treated more as fringe
lunatics, my opinion). Do we really need more,
"this guy's great, and that guy's great, and
that guy's a winner" analysis? Back to Tebow...
Tebow has been verbally "smacked" by a few
teammates, and then had that followed up by a
drop-kick to the groin from
the media. At this point, most people have
scribbled Tebow off their Fantasy Football Draft lists...like a
late scratch at the Preakness. Story over, maybe
not?
I'm not making a call for Tebow as a last
second "sleeper" for the 2011 Fantasy Football
Draft. Our computer scouting/analysis of the
incoming college QBs for 2010 exposed him as a
problem translating to the NFL as an elite QB.
We weren't alone on that, not at all...we were
part of the 50% of the football world opinion
that was "down" on Tebow for the NFL. That
original 50% negative opinion on Tebow is now
like 90% (99.3% outside of Florida and Denver).
However, I don't think the Tebow story is over
for Fantasy Football 2011. In fact, potentially
he is going to have a very maddening impact for
Fantasy Football 2011...in a way different than
what you are likely thinking.
This theory hit me as I was watching all the
preseason game tape over the past few days. It
struck me when watching Tebow in his preseason
game against the Cowboys last week. I had an odd
observation, an observation that isn't totally
unique -- I saw it in Tebow's body
language...when Tebow gets close to the
goal-line, he has mentally decided pre-snap that
he is taking off running for the goal-line (it
might be more subconscious than deliberate). The
Broncos had two plays inside the opponents
15-yard line while Tebow was in at QB versus
Dallas, the two plays were:
-
(1st & 7) Tebow runs for a TD, called back
for holding
-
(3rd & 14) Tebow drops back to pass, but
takes off running all over the field, and
then thinks better of it and throws the
ball...but he was already well past the line
of scrimmage.
Watching Tebow's mannerism in the "red-zone", I
decided too look back at all the Tebow
games/plays from 2010...to see if this was just
a cute/totally bias projection by me onto Tebow,
or was it a real/predictable trend? On this
journey, I stumbled into something I didn't
expect.
In Tebow's three starts in late 2010, here are
the Broncos final results from any time they
advanced the ball within the opponents 10-yard
line:
-
Week-15 vs. OAK -- never advanced the
ball with the 10-yard line
-
Week-16 vs. HOU -- Buckhalter 6 yd TD
run, Hauschka 27-yard FG, Tebow 6-yard TD
run
-
Week-17 vs. SD -- Tebow 6-yard TD pass,
Tebow 6-yard TD run
The 5 times that a 2010 starting QB Tim Tebow-led
Broncos Offense advanced the ball within the
opponents 10-yard, twice (40% of the time)
Tebow took off for a rushing TD.
Let's look at what happened when Tebow
began entering the game as a "red-zone wrinkle"
in 2010, and the ball was inside the opponents
10-yard line:
-
Week-6 vs. NYJ -- Tebow 5-yard TD run
(just 1 time did the Broncos advance the
ball within the 10-yard line in this game,
and Tebow ran for a TD)
-
Week-8 vs. SF -- Tebow 1-yard TD run (1
of 2 times the Broncos has the ball within
the 10-yard line, Tebow was inserted)
-
Week-10 vs. KC -- Tebow 1-yard TD run,
Tebow 3-yard TD Pass (2 of 3 times the
Broncos had the ball within the 10-yard
line, Tebow was inserted)
If we count the 2011 preseason game last
week, and his 3 late-season starts, plus his 3
games he came in as a "gimmick"...the overview
is:
-
A total of 10 times that Tebow has
driven the team, or was inserted into the
game with the ball going within the
opponents 10-yard line
-
5 of 10 times Tebow rushed for a TD
-
1 of 10 times Tebow rushed for a TD, and
it was called back
-
2 of 10 times Tebow threw for a TD pass
-
2 of 10 times, someone else scored
One of those 10 scenarios analyzed above was
the 2011 preseason game that just happened.
If you look at only the 9
times that occurred in the regular season
2010...you will notice that the Broncos scored a
TD 8 of those 9 times. Tebow accounted for TDs on 7 of
those 9 times. That's a pretty good red-zone
efficiency. Do we not think the Broncos aren't
aware of this? Do you really think they will sit
the huge fan favorite, and
highly-effective/dangerous from within 10-yards
out, Tim Tebow?
Just because it's likely that Tebow will be
inserted into the game from within 10-yards out
of the end-zone, doesn't mean that he has major
Fantasy Football viability. However, if you play
in a very deep league...if you can add Tebow as
your "flex," you might want to consider it
(half-kidding). Tebow could rush for 5-10 TDs this season and/or
throw for another 2-5 TDs, and yet never start
in any game...and also be listed as a 3rd-string
QB, and only be on the field for about 30-50
plays all season. Again, not pushing Tebow for
Fantasy Football 2011 -- what I am
thinking..."what is this going to do to the
Fantasy Football upside of the Broncos RBs for
2011 Fantasy Football scoring?"
The Tim Tebow
Wrecking-Ball effect on Knowshon Moreno for
Fantasy Football 2010:
Knowshon Moreno had excellent Fantasy
Football scoring games in 2010, especially when
Tim Tebow was nowhere to be found.
Moreno's 2010 stats in 7 games (3 games he
missed due to injury) where Tim Tebow did not
start, or was inserted in as a red-zone gimmick:
-
17.1 = carries per game
-
74.3 = yards rushing per game
-
39.7 = yards receiving per game
-
114.0 = total yards per game
-
7 TDs, 1.0 TDs per game (rush +
rec)
-
17.1 = Traditional Fantasy Football PPG
-
21.0 = PPR PPG
Those are elite Fantasy Football stats for
Moreno, top 3-5 rankings among RBs in the game when he was
playing...but the Moreno-story changed when Tebow
started jumping into the picture.
Knowshon Moreno's stats in 3 games where
Tebow was inserted for red-zone attempts:
-
15.0 = carries per game
-
64.7 = yards rushing per game
-
23.0 = yards receiving per game
-
87.7 = total yards per game
-
1 TD total (receiving), 0.33 TDs per
game
-
10.1 = Traditional Fantasy Football PPG
-
12.4 = PPR PPG
Moreno's productivity was still decent, but
tailed off for Fantasy Football mostly due to a
precipitous drop in TDs.
Knowshon Moreno has run for 12 TDs in his
2-year career...all but one of those TDs are
from within 7 yards out. A total of 7 of his 12
rushing TDs are from 1-yard out. Are all the
short yardage TDs for Broncos RBs "all gone" with the Tim Tebow
"wildcat" in the red-zone?
-
Moreno has played 15 career games
without a hint of Tebow, and he has rushed
for 12 TDs and caught another 4 TDs -- 16
TDs in 15 games
-
Moreno has played 5 career games with
Tebow "sneaking" into the game, or starting.
Moreno has no rushing TDs in those games,
and 1 receiving TD
If Tebow has that kind of effect on Knowshon
Moreno, what will it do to Willis McGahee...who
is more notorious of a short-yardage TD-vulture?
Tim Tebow lives!
Tebow may be dead & buried as a Broncos
starting QB on opening day 2011, but it doesn't
mean he won't lead the team in rushing TDs after
Week-1...or after Week-5, etc. If you believe
that Tebow will be used in that manner, it is
potentially a serious threat to Knowshon
Moreno's and Willis McGahee's Fantasy
Football usefulness in 2011.
Kyle Orton's Fantasy Football scoring
dipped very slightly during all this activity
with Tebow in 2010, but not enough to cause a
panic (what does it matter to Orton's numbers if
Moreno/McGahee rushes for a TD, or Tebow). Ditto
for Brandon Lloyd. It's the Broncos RBs
that are going to lose those precious
short-yardage TDs, and thus are at the most
Fantasy Football scoring risk.
...and you thought the Tim Tebow story
was over?
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