It may not seem like a big deal for Fantasy
Football that Kevin Boss signed with the
Oakland Raiders, but it is. The reason I think
that it is very intriguing, is the embedded
message I think the Giants just sent -- the
message that the Travis Beckum-era is
ready to begin. First, let's look at the
conspiracy theory that goes along with this
Kevin Boss/Travis Beckum story...then we'll
focus in on scouting Beckum.
Kevin Boss is an excellent NFL TE, our
highest rated TE in the 2007 NFL Draft and one
of the top TEs we've rated in the past 5 years.
He is great. The Giants, a very smart team, also
have another excellent TE on the roster --
Travis Beckum. We speculated back in June
that the a Kevin Boss Free Agency may
result in Boss leaving, due to the Giants tight
on salary cap...and with a very capable Beckum
in the wings. My question on the situation was
-- would the Giants really take a risk on the
younger player, and ditch an excellent blocking,
decent receiving, veteran TE like Boss?
I believe Boss thought he'd be back with the
Giants in 2011. Boss had seemingly had many
options a few days ago -- he would have been a
perfect fit in Arizona over Todd Heap, or
a cheaper Seattle Seahawks TE, or even a nice
addition in Miami. I have to suspect he had
every intention of being back with the Giants.
The Giants had a negotiating "trump card" --
they had Travis Beckum. How much did the
Giants really have to pay Boss, if they had
Beckum? The Giants run a very good organization,
and I'm sure they low-balled Boss to a
degree...Boss could have probably gone to
several other places, but I'm sure no one
thought he would ultimately leave New York...or
that the Giants would let him. TE after TE
landed with their various teams early on in the
Free Agent frenzy, but Boss along with Zach
Miller remained as the big name TEs
available for the taking.
The events of the last few days is a rather
interesting "Tight-End Theatre" (I'd DVR that
show) that reveals a poorly-played hand by
Kevin Boss and his agents. The last few days
of this "theatre" also reveals the additional
stupidity of the Seattle Seahawks management (my
2 cent theory), and also sets up the Giants
risky "all-in" gamble.
The "Week That Was", in
Tight Ends (another show I would DVR)
July 30th -- Kevin Boss,
Todd Heap and Zach Miller are
still unsigned, and are the biggest free agent
names available at TE. There is no one else even
close after the "big-3".
July 31st -- Todd Heap
signs a 2 year, 5.5M contract...an aging,
experienced, quality TE and no guarantee that I
found (if there is, it probably isn't much).
It's a very shrewd move by Arizona. They have a
top prospect TE in the wings (Rob Housler),
and this makes all the sense in the world for
2011, for this sudden playoff contender.
August 1st -- The Giants sign
Ben Patrick, who is a blocking TE not a
receiving TE. There is no reason to sign Patrick
if you are bringing back Kevin Boss. If
Boss didn't realize he was gone from the Giants
before 8/1/11, he had to realize it now. Boss's
agents should have been hustling the phones --
especially in Seattle. For my money, Boss is a
much better NFL TE than Zach Miller. Miller is
nice, but Boss is better. Boss is bigger (6'6
vs. 6'4), a much better blocker, and measured
faster and just as agile as Miller in pre-draft
workouts in 2007.
August 2nd -- Seattle signs
Zach Miller to what may be the largest
contract for any NFL TE currently -- 5 years,
34M and $17M guaranteed. Why they gave Miller
all that money, for a team that had a solid TE
in John Carlson already, and a nice
prospect in Cameron Morrah...I have no
idea? What Zach Miller is not -- he is
not better than Kevin Boss, so the next
pieces of info in this storyare going to make
you sick if you are a Seattle fan (and sorry,
this has been a rough off-season for you
already).
August 3rd -- I wonder if
Seattle was even contacted at last second, or if
they did get regular calls from Boss's "people"
-- If Seattle had a chance or an awareness of
Boss's availability, and just determined
themselves to spend twice as much for a lesser
TE -- then Seattle management is even dumber
than previously stated by me.
With Miller's signing, Boss has now missed
out on the Cardinals and Seahawks. However, the
Raiders are sitting as jilted, desperate
lovers...left at the altar by Miller, who
scammed Seattle along with Miller-Cheerleader
and former Raiders Head Coach, and new Seattle
assistant coach Tom Cable. Good for
Miller, take advantage of the dumb teams.
I'm not saying that Zach Miller is a
bad TE, he's very good -- he's just not a 5
year, $34M, $17M guaranteed level "good".
Especially when compared to a 2-year for $5.5M
TE option in Todd Heap...or in relation
to what Kevin Boss is about to take.
August 5th -- Marcedes Lewis
signs a 5 year, $35M contract with $17M
guaranteed. Which makes a ton of sense for a
team with no Defense, and no taller WRs. Lewis
did average 2.0 catches for 24.6 yards per game,
with 7 TD receptions in his first 4
seasons...all before his "contract year". Before
2010, he was probably closer to being released
than becoming the richest TE in the NFL. He had
a "contract year" in 2010, a year in which he
amped up to a very nice season...how
timely. Most of the 2010 notoriety carried by a
bunch of receiving TDs in a few game spurt
(thanks in part to Jacksonville's lack of
WRs...but I digress).
August 5th -- Two solid TEs
(Miller and Lewis) just got paid a "king's
ransom", and Kevin Boss is obviously left
in despair. What else can you call it besides
despair? What would cause Boss, who is every bit
as good and respected (and better) a TE than
Zach Miller and Marcedes Lewis, to
sign a 4-year, $16M deal with Oakland. Half the
deal of Miller and Lewis? Kevin Boss is a steal
at 4-years/$16M...especially given that he is
superior to Lewis and Miller. How dumb is
Seattle to pay Miller that exorbitant amount
with Boss available at a much lower price?
Enough Seattle bashing...
I firmly believe that Kevin Boss did not want to
go to Oakland. No smart player wants to go to
Oakland. I've heard Kevin Boss speak, he
is no dummy. Boss got caught in a free agent
trap and got burned -- a tremendous move by
Oakland. Now let's swerve this back around to
the New York Giants. With the falling Boss
price, the Giants did not get back in the
negotiations. The only conclusion we can make is
-- they are/have been prepping for the Travis
Beckum era.
Who is Travis Beckum?
Beckum was a top-TE for the Wisconsin Badgers
from 2006-2008. Beckum had 61 catches for 903
yards and 5 TDs as a Sophomore. He followed that
up with an even better 6 catch, 982 yard, 6 TD
season as a Junior. Keep in mind, Beckum had all
that productivity playing for a low pass attempt
Wisconsin offense/team. Beckum was half-way into
a decent (but no TDs) Senior year, but a broken
fibula cut his season and career short. His
Junior season output set several records, and
put him on several All-American teams, and also
put him on many "Tight End of the Year Award"
preseason lists. His senior season was a bad
break, no pun intended.
Beckum could not run at the NFL Combine, but
at his Pro-Day (coming off the leg injury) he
ran a very impressive (for a TE) 4.61 in the
40-yard dash with very good agility
measurements. Beckum also displayed a great (for
a TE) vertical as well. At the 2009 NFL Combine,
Beckum out-benched all other TEs. Beckum has
upper-end physical attributes translating well
for the NFL, and also had elite output on the
field. All that led Beckum to become a 3rd-Round
draft pick for a team that already had a very
good TE in Kevin Boss.
Beckum statistically measured as our #1 rated
TE in the 2009 class, ahead of Missouri's
Chase Coffman. Beckum's numbers/rating in on
our college TE formulas, projected him to become
a potentially good/great receiving TE in the
NFL.
Beckum started slow in 2009, no reason he
would supplant Boss walking in the door.
However, he did play and had a couple 2-catch
games...nothing major. Beckum started to see a
little more time in 2010, still just a high of
2-catches in a game...but did score 2 TDs in his
limited time, and caught 76% of his targets.
Beckum was also injured on and off late in 2010.
With a very unassuming NFL resume' so far,
Travis Beckum is now the main
starting/receiving TE for the NY Giants...and
make no mistake, he is a receiving TE/weapon. He
is not there to block (thus the Ben Patrick
signing), but he did have elite bench press
measurements, so he should be able to compensate
for his slightly smaller size/mass (he's 240-245
pounds). Where Beckum could get really
interesting is -- if Steve Smith is not
retained by the Giants.
No Steve Smith, would leave the Giants with
more deep-threat WRs (Hakeem Nicks, Mario
Manningham, Ramses Barden)...and it could
leave Beckum as a their top
possession/underneath game option, as he is a
kinda TE/WR hybrid. Beckum has been a high
target TE from his college days, and he
delivered on those targets. In our TE database,
over the past 5 years, Beckum's 2009 season was
the single best rated for targeting/receiving
success within the context of the offense played
in. Beckum caught 38% of his QBs completions,
and accumulated 36% of his QBs passing yards in
2007...those were the best on-field receiving
metrics we have had for any TE in the past 5+
years in our unique system analysis. Beckum is
definitely a PPR Fantasy Football League
prospect.
2011 Fantasy Football --
Beckum and Boss
Kevin Boss actually comes out a winner
in this, I think, from a Fantasy Football
standpoint. Boss is a very capable receiving
weapon, but Hakeem Nicks is going to
steal "the show" when it comes to end-zone
targets. Boss on Oakland, much like Zach
Miller was, is immediately the Raiders top
end-zone threat. Boss has been a 5-6 TD a year
TE for the past 3 seasons...we could see that
and then some in 2011 with Jason Campbell,
who has made good use of the TE throughout his
career.
Travis Beckum is a much better value
in a PPR league right now, than in a traditional
Fantasy Football scoring league. Beckum is only
6'3 (I wish I was only 6'3), which is on the
small end for a TE...so he may not be as big an
end-zone threat, especially with Nicks as the
primary (Beckum did have 2 TDs among his 13
receptions last year). However, with no Steve
Smith...Beckum could play a big role in the
possession receiving game. Even if Smith is
back, Beckum is a much better, faster option in
the non-red-zone zone passing game than Boss
was. Beckum is not in our top-10, but his
projections are not far from it now. Beckum
should not be drafted as a Fantasy Football
starting TE, but he makes an excellent draft &
hold/see what develops backup 2011 Fantasy
Football TE. Some of the heavier projections
ride a little bit on if Steve Smith signs
elsewhere.
*Final note, if the Giants make some kind
of deal for a "name" TE...then I take this all
back. However, today Bo Scaife signed
with the Bengals...which pretty much leaves no
available TEs via Free Agency. Making a deal for
Tony Scheffler, Cameron Morrah, Fred Davis,
Chase Coffman or John Carlson is
about the only possible scenarios I could dream
up for the Giants via trade. I don't think
that's going to happen, I think the non-Boss
deal was predicated on the Giants belief in a
Beckum/Patrick tandem.
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