If you are not familiar with the ABC TV Show
Shark
Tank, please check it out...but also click the
first article in our series to get more of a
background for this style of article if you are
unfamiliar with the show. Click =
The Fantasy Football Shark Tank - Will You
"Invest" in Michael Vick 2011
The set-up:
Reggie Bush is a perplexing RB for
Fantasy Football 2011. Bush was the #2 overall
pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, and has been a
unique situation for Fantasy Football ever
since. A Heisman Trophy winning-RB in college,
who measured with elite speed and tremendous
overall athleticism. Bush entered the NFL with a
splash in 2006, compiling 1,307 yards (rushing +
receiving) and 8 TDs, plus another TD from a
punt-return. He had a great 2006, but his
overall stats/productivity has steadily declined
every season since. For the past three years
Bush has been more of a joke, a trap-door for
Fantasy Football...like a Felix Jones --
so many great highlight reel plays, so much
potential, but never any consistency.
Now Reggie Bush has signed with the
Miami Dolphins, with the promise of becoming a
feature RB...and many Fantasy GMs are skeptical
of that. The skeptics would say that Bush is
nothing but a diva/perpetually hurt/3rd-Down RB.
His past 2-3 seasons of history back that up.
However, Bush is a very popular player in
general...so depending upon your league, he is
mocked by many and loved (too much) by others.
Bush has not yet fully rocketed up the 2011
Fantasy Football Draft rankings, but he is
starting to make a move upwards. We have seen
him being taken around the 90th overall player
(30-35th RB) in traditional scoring leagues, and
80th overall (around the 30th RB taken).
However, sometimes he jumps 10-20 picks earlier
than that depending upon the secret
"Reggie-love" out there. Bush is not going way
too high right now, but the question is -- no
matter where you select him, is it worth it?
Will he play, and pay-off big for Fantasy
Football 2011. Let's put Reggie Bush into
the Shark Tank, and debate this conundrum....
Into the Shark Tank goes Reggie Bush...
Bush
= My name is Reggie Bush, and I would like to be
considered as a top-24 RB selection in the 2011
Fantasy Football Draft. I want to be a starting
RB for your Fantasy Football team on opening
day. I am finally getting my chance to shine,
and as a feature RB for the first time in the
NFL...I'm going to return your investment
big-time.
Sharks
= You have not carried the ball much at all the
past 2 seasons, just 4.8 times per game average
the past 2 seasons. When you did carry the ball
more, like in your first 3 seasons, it was at an
average of just 11.0 carries per game...and
you've never cracked over 4.0 yards per carry in
any of those "heavier" carry seasons (3.8 ypc
was the best season 2006-08). Aren't you just a
3rd-Down RB, with limited durability, that has
to have carries kept at a minimum to preserve
your durability?
Bush
= I'm a value even at 8-12 carries per game, my
hidden-value is my receiving totals. My first 3
seasons in the NFL, I averaged over 5+ catches
per game. If I get 10 carries and 5 catches a
game, I'm going to produce 100+ yard totals per
game...and long TDs. I've been good for rushing
and great for receiving...combine them, and I
can be awesome for Fantasy Football 2011. I have
25 career games with a combined 15+ touches
(carries + catches), in those 25 games, I am
averaging 96.6 yards per game and have 14 TDs.
In those 15+ touch games, I have a 13.0 Fantasy
Football PPG average, a 16.0+ PPG average in a
PPR league. That's a top-15 level Fantasy
Football RB in traditional scoring, pushing the
top-10 in PPR. When I get the chance, I
produce...and in Miami, I'm getting the chance.
Sharks
= That's all great, but no one really questions
your talent (for the most part)...we question
your durability -- we come back around to,
aren't you just a 3rd-Down/Punt-return type RB
that has to have limited touches to be kept
healthy? We don't want to invest heavily in a
RB, who is always on the sidelines. You have
averaged just 11 games played per year, over the
past 4 seasons.
Bush
= I've missed some time, but if you are going to
hold that against me -- I hope you hold that
against Darren McFadden, who will go high in
Fantasy Football Drafts. I'm glad you are
ignoring the fact that Peyton Hillis has been
hurt off and on before this past break-out
season. MJD, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams,
Ahmad Bradshaw...there are a ton of RBs with
suspect backgrounds that will go top-24 among
RBs for Fantasy Football.
Sharks
= That is a long list of players with injury
history, but they also have something else in
common -- top productivity of late.
Bush
= DeAngelo Williams didn't rush for over
100-yards in any game last year? This is not
about Bush 2009-2010 vs. everyone else,
obviously they win. This is about Bush-2011, a
break-out season as I finally become a feature
RB.
Sharks
= Who says you are a feature RB? What about
highly drafted Daniel Thomas?
Bush =
You have watched the preseason, right? Maybe,
you missed it...but Thomas is so good, we just
signed Larry Johnson to be a power-RB for us.
The power-RB on my team doesn't matter to me. I
don't score a ton of 1-yard TDs...because I can
score them from 10+ yards out.
Sharks
= You had one TD last year, they weren't that
hard to count.
Bush
= I came out of college as a Junior, I am only
26 years old, and I definitely haven't been worn
down with overuse. I still have a lot of
"mileage on the tread", and finally, I am out of
Fantasy Football RB-purgatory in New
Orleans...free to become a superstar. Will you
take me as a top-24 RB for Fantasy Football
2011?
If I was the Shark, I
would play it like this:
Me
= The knock on Reggie Bush is that he is
a 3rd-down RB, and too fragile to be an every
down RB. Let's de-bunk the size issue right now,
by looking at similar to Reggie Bush-type
RBs; and how they measured coming out if
college:
|
200-Pound +/- Speed- RBs |
Height |
Weight |
Bench Press |
40-yard |
|
Bush, Reggie |
71.7 |
201 |
24 |
4.37 |
|
Johnson, Chris |
71.0 |
197 |
x |
4.24 |
|
Bradshaw, Ahmad |
69.5 |
198 |
x |
4.55 |
|
Charles, Jamaal |
71.0 |
200 |
x |
4.38 |
|
McFadden, Darren |
73.1 |
211 |
13 |
4.33 |
|
Best, Jahvid |
70.1 |
198 |
18 |
4.34 |
Reggie Bush is physically similar to the
much more highly thought of smaller/speedy RBs --
Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. What
Bush has over this entire group is, not only does
Bush have elite/superior speed (like most all on the
list above do) -- but Bush out-benched every one of
them. You see the "x's" (meaning no data), and 99%
of the time that means a very thin-framed speed-RB
"passed" (wisely) on having a recorded bench press
at the NFL Combine, or at their Pro-Day...because
they knew it would be low. Reggie Bush had a
bench press similar to a small Full-Back. There is
no physical reason why Reggie Bush cannot
thrive in the NFL, if Chris Johnson and
Jamaal Charles (among others) have.
It's not even a "can he do it," like it was
with McFadden up until last year. Bush was great
as a rookie, and has steadily declined...but he
has proven he can produce. Bush is not going to
be a 20+ carry per game RB, but then how many
really are? If you take Bush's carries and
catches combined, he can be a 15+ "touch"
RB...maybe even a 20+ touch RB this year. That's
where I am now a huge buyer on Reggie Bush
as a value pick in the 5th-7th Round of the
Fantasy Football Draft.
Even when the Saints had Bush healthy
recently, they never featured him for more than
a game or two. The same thing with Pierre
Thomas on the Saints, I think (when healthy)
Thomas is a top NFL RB...but even when healthy
the Saints split the ball between 3+ RBs all the
time (let that be our 100th+ warning to those
paying too much for Mark Ingram).
Reggie Bush is going to be the main RB for
Miami, and there isn't anyone close to push him.
We went on record that Daniel Thomas was
a potential NFL RB fraud months ago, when
everyone else had him as the #1-2 rookie RB for
Fantasy Football. Now Larry Johnson is
brought in, really? Lex Hilliard?
Reggie Bush is going to be the main threat
for Miami's running game, and short passing
game. Everyone is all excited about Tim
Hightower getting the main touches for
Washington, but Bush getting them draws a yawn.
Reggie Bush is 50-times the RB talent
that Tim Hightower is...and that's not a
slam on Hightower. In Reggie Bush, you
are looking at one of the most physically gifted
RBs in the NFL. Plus, Bush is now a feature RB,
currently available in the middle of your
Fantasy Football Draft.
Am I concerned about the nagging injury
history, sure? I wouldn't feel good taking Bush
with a 1st or 2nd Round Fantasy Football Draft
pick. However, like those that have traveled
down the Felix Jones, Darren McFadden
road before...I will take a look at Bush in the
middle of the draft. I think Reggie Bush-2011
is the potential 2010 Darren McFadden
story...and praying he is not the 2008-09
Darren McFadden story. Bush is worth the
4th-7th Round pick, to take the chance to see.
"I'm in," for the Reggie Bush
investment/risk for 2011 (cue me coming down
from my Shark seat to give him a manly handshake
and man-hug).
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