I am probably just like you with these two
Rams players -- I like and respect Steven
Jackson, and I feel sorry for him that he has
been stuck on the Rams for the past few years. I
also really like Sam Bradford, and our computer
analysis of college QBs had him the highest
rated QB to come into the NFL in the past
decade.
Despite all those accolades -- I am very
hesitant on Steven Jackson, and wouldn't touch
Sam Bradford with a proverbial "10-foot pole"
for Fantasy Football 2011...at least not
initially.
The problem is simple -- the early 2011
schedule is brutal on the Rams. I love
everything about the Rams, and I thought
(pre-schedule release) that they might be that
team to go from losing record to Super Bowl "out
of nowhere" in one season. Then the 2011
schedule was announced, and I'm thinking that
not only are the Rams not going to the Super
Bowl; they probably aren't going to have a
winning record either. On top of team
performance issues, the 2011 schedule is set up
to do damage to some of their key players for
Fantasy Football 2011.
The main reason the schedule is so scary, is
not it's overall strength...the problem is the
strength of opponents (and an early Bye) early
on/right out of the gates. Nothing kills a
Fantasy season quicker than taking solid players
who are going head-first into an early rough
schedule. Just ask Joe Flacco and Ray Rice
Fantasy Football owners from last year -- likely
they are the same owners who panicked and dumped
Flacco and Rice on the cheap because of weak
early-season performances (NYJ and PIT in first
4 games last season). Trading them right before
their scheduled eased and those two players
switched back to their usual good/great
performances. What happened to the Ravens key
Fantasy Football players last year, is
potentially going to happen to the Rams key
players this year.
First, let's look at the schedule...then
we'll discuss the impact to Jackson and Bradford
specifically.
The Rams early 2011 schedule
problem...
The 2011 schedule problem is just a 1st half
one -- A rugged first 4 games, an early Bye week,
and then 3 more rough opponents
post Bye-week. A game-by-game preview:
-
Week-1 = Home vs. the Eagles. This went from
a tough matchup, to extremely tough in the
last few days of Free Agency signings.
-
Week-2 = @ the Giants. Another solid
defense, especially at home.
-
Week-3 = Home vs. the Ravens. Obviously,
an upper-tier defense in the NFL versus both
the run and pass.
-
Week-4 = Home vs. the Redskins. The
Redskins were not as big a pushovers as many
think last year. Certainly they are not elite, but not
bad either.
-
Week-5 = BYE...we hate early Bye's!!! At
best, the Rams are (2-2) at this point, but
possibly (1-3).
-
Week-6 = @ the Packers. Welcome back
from the Bye-week, facing possibly the NFL's
top defense.
-
Week-7 = @ the Cowboys. Now led by Rob
Ryan as the defensive coach, he could turn
that group into a top-defense overnight.
-
Week-8 = Home vs. the Saints. Another upper
echelon NFL defense.
After 8 weeks/7 games into 2011, the Rams will have
faced 5 teams with a winning record last
season (they faced 5 teams with a winning record
all last season)...and it's fairly safe to say
PHI, NYG, BAL, GB, NO will also be
"winning record" teams again in 2011 (barring
major QB injury).
Look at those first 3 games...PHI, NYG, BAL
-- essentially Bradford has little/no Fantasy
Football value for, or usefulness, on your
roster until Week-4 vs. the Redskins. After that
one "safe" Redskins week, you get a Bye and then
the Packers. Five weeks, one potential Fantasy
Football start...not a good early
return-on-investment.
Sam Bradford, and the
tough 2011 schedule...
We love Bradford long-term, but this is a
tough early-season hurdle to ask any young QB
surrounded by mostly young/inexperienced WRs and
TEs. Bradford had a nice, 2010...but not so nice
when you look at his performance against
tougher-defenses.
Bradford's performance against teams with a
winning record in 2010, and the "playoff" type
game in Week-17 vs. Seattle:
|
Week |
Opp |
Comp |
Att |
Comp Pct |
Yards |
TDs |
INTs |
|
6 |
SD |
18 |
31 |
58.1% |
198 |
1 |
0 |
|
7 |
@TB |
13 |
26 |
50.0% |
126 |
2 |
0 |
|
11 |
ATL |
27 |
42 |
64.3% |
233 |
2 |
1 |
|
14 |
@ NO |
18 |
32 |
56.3% |
231 |
0 |
2 |
|
15 |
KC |
21 |
42 |
50.0% |
181 |
0 |
2 |
|
17 |
SEA |
19 |
36 |
52.8% |
155 |
0 |
1 |
|
x |
x |
116 |
209 |
55.5% |
1,124 |
5 |
6 |
|
PER |
GAME |
19.3 |
34.8 |
x |
187.3 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
Bradford also went (1-5) in those "tough" 6
games listed above. Outside of those 6 games,
Bradford had 13 TDs and 9 INTs in 10 games
played with a (6-4) record. Even in those six
"tough" games in 2010, maybe San Diego and New
Orleans had "kinda" rugged defenses...the rest
of those 2010 "winning teams" were pretty
mediocre on defense (TB, ATL, KC). Bradford
hasn't really seen any wild defensive schemes
combined with top NFL talent yet...but he will
face it in 2011 with Philly, Baltimore, and
Green Bay all sitting within his first 5 games.
Rob Ryan will probably throw a few curve balls
in there too in Week-7.
The Rams have signed/drafted a bunch of WRs
and TEs, and they lost a bunch of WRs due to
injury last year. Now that they have missed
critical time in training camp...can this young
group gel quickly and thus lead Bradford to
dominate the Eagles, the Ravens and the Packers
early on? Bradford is likely going to be a NFL
star, but that's asking a lot from a young
2nd-year QB given the circumstances. Bradford is
going to be virtually useless from a Fantasy
Football standpoint for the first half of 2011.
This is not to say that Bradford is going to
come out in 2011 and throw for 100 yards-a-game,
with no TDs and 3 picks a game. The schedule
analysis would suggest that a multi-passing TD
game is less likely, lower overall passing
yardage is likely, and more INTs are likely...in
that stretch. A 4 TD, 350+ yard outburst is less
likely.
If Bradford comes out of this first half with
a .500 or better record, and a respectable
overall statistical performance...trade the farm
for him for the 2nd half. Bradford/STL has a
cake-walk from Week-9 to Week-15 (Week-16 vs.
PIT), including two matchups against Dominique
Rodgers-Cromartie-less Arizona, 2 against
Seattle, and a favorable "Ohio tour" with Cincy
and the Browns.
Steven Jackson, and the
tough 2011 schedule...
Steven Jackson is a great RB, and it is
questionable on whether to downgrade him for a
"tough schedule." However, when I look back at
Jackson's career, something jumped out at me --
Jackson has rarely faced truly superior
run-defenses. Due to a more flimsy NFC West
conference, mixed with the fact that the Rams
have been one of the worst teams in the NFL
(outside of Detroit) for the past 5 years...it
has all played out that Jackson has avoided
matchups with the likes of the Steelers, Ravens,
current era Jets and past era Patriots.
- In 2004, Jackson had 3 carries for one
yard against New England
- In 2005, against (11-5) NY Giants,
Jackson had 10 carries for 17 yards and a TD
- In 2007, against Pittsburgh, Jackson had
12 carries for 85 yards and no TDs
- In 2008 = against the Eagles, Jackson
had 14 carries for 40 yards
That was the only Jackson vs. more "superior"
defense matchups that I could locate at a quick
career glance...and it is probably/definitely
unreasonable to draw any conclusions from that
cluster of cherry-picked games over Jackson's
outstanding career. Last season against the
"winning teams," Jackson was fine...but again,
those 2010 "winning teams" weren't that superior
on defense...not like Philly, Baltimore and
Green Bay coming up in 2011. This article is
definitely not to down Jackson, just a caution
that he may start out very slow based on the
strength of opponent -- almost no RB is immune
to down in stats against elite-level defenses.
It happened to Ray Rice to start last season, it
hits Chris Johnson (every time he faces the
Steelers)...it's not a guarantee, just a smart
"gamble" when sitting down at the Black-Jack
table. Not going to hit on 17 with Steven
Jackson to start Fantasy Football 2011.
St. Louis
Rams Team Defense reverberations from the tough
2011 schedule...
St. Louis had a respectable, under-the-radar
Fantasy Football Team Defense last season...and
Steve Spagnuolo is a great defensive coach. All
of that will not be able to resist the schedule
onslaught coming. The first-half schedule is
dotted with good and elite defenses, and the
schedule is also wired with top/elite NFL
QB/Offenses as well. The first-half schedule
pattern is frightening for a Defense -- Vick,
Eli, Flacco, Beck (exception), BYE, Rodgers,
Romo, Brees. Do sneak the Rams into the Fantasy
Football starting lineup against the Redskins
Week-4, if you need a temporary one-week
stop-gap Team Defense; other than that the Rams
defense is useless. Even the 2nd-half is more of
a mixed bag now that Kevin Kolb has landed in
Arizona.
I know, you already
committed in your heart to Sam Bradford as your
"crafty" 2nd QB on the roster for 2011...
It makes all the sense in the world...You
(and I, and most of the world) believe that
Bradford is going to be a top-flight NFL/Fantasy
Football QB. You believe he is a Fantasy
Football starter sooner-rather-than-later. You
plan to grab Bradford as your 2011 2nd Fantasy
Football QB, with "sugar and spice" dreams that
you might be sitting with a Tony Romo, Joe
Flacco or Matt Ryan first...so you're going to
pass on the elite QBs (Brady, Brees, Rodgers,
etc.) and take a QB from the next tier, and team
that QB with Bradford -- banking that one, or
both, of your "up and coming" QBs " breaks out"
in 2011. Be very, very careful that your smart
thought process doesn't kill your 2011 Fantasy
Football season before it starts. As much as you
love Bradford, show the restraint and pass on
him...and like "true love," he will come back to
you -- in the form of another owner dumping him
for 30 cents on the dollar due to panicking that
Bradford is "overrated" or "still learning"
(same exact thing happened to Flacco last year).
Pass on drafting Bradford initially, sit back
and wait for the fire sale. If I'm wrong,
Bradford will just be "good" against that
schedule; not elite...trade for him on the 2nd
half explosion, and curse my name.
Steven Jackson is too
good to pass up at this spot...
I don't think anyone outside of St. Louis
actually ever has Steven Jackson as a primary
Fantasy Football plan for their draft in Round-1
or early Round-2. It just happens that at a
certain point after the RBs you hoped might
"fall" to you aren't there, and you're getting
ready to take a top WR or QB...but there he is
just sitting there -- Steven Jackson. Always
steady, always reliable, no real threat on the
depth chart to take carries away..."he's too
good pass up at that pick," you say to
yourself...and bam, he's joined the team and
returns you a respectable performance. That
draft psychology is going to happen again in the
2011 Fantasy Football Draft, and my game plan is
to resist it. As much as like Jackson, I do not
like where the Rams schedule is headed...I will
pass, and look to acquire him on the cheap
later.
Fantasy Football is like stock trading or poker
playing -- every little edge counts. Jackson and
Bradford will be gobbled up by many Fantasy Football
GMs based on the knee-jerk reaction of the proven
talent and/or upside...and they're right, only to a
point in 2011. The proper 2011 play on both is to
pass on them, but set a calendar reminder for Week
5-6 to make a move to shark in and steal them from
the same proud owners in August/September...who
discount them in a panic in October.
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