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Fantasy Football Metrics - 2011 Draft
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and Cheat Sheet.
Most of the 2011 Free Agent RB discussions,
speculations, "hopes & dreams," have centered
around DeAngelo Williams and Ahmad
Bradshaw. Whether you're just a fan of an
NFL team with a RB need, or you are a Fantasy
Football GM...you are anxiously waiting to see
where all the available RBs wind up. If either
one of D. Williams or Bradshaw winds up with
"the right team," like say the Miami
Dolphins...their Fantasy Football value is going
to rocket on the enthusiasm and "possibilities".
After Williams and Bradshaw, most people
would say there is not a "difference-making"
Free Agent RB available this year. However, we
think a whole new wave of RBs is going to enter
the pool to get people talking. We think
Joseph Addai will not be retained by
the Colts, nor Ronnie Brown by
Miami...and possibly Cedric Benson
is turned away by Cincy. If two or three of
Addai, R. Brown and Benson hit the open market,
there will be a renaissance/romanticized thought
for them...and the exciting "possibilities" that
they could bring to their new NFL teams. All
three of them (to me) have a better
stature/standing in the Fantasy Football
community than their actual performance of late
(and career-wise)...but the Fantasy Football
reality is -- they will garner a lot of
attention (hopeful or delusional) if/when they
change teams via 2011 Free Agency.
In the quest for a great 2011 RB Free Agent
signing, one available RB is being
overlooked/virtually ignored...and that RB will
be considerably cheaper (payroll-wise) than all
the RBs mentioned above. That RB is Jerome
Harrison. Not only will Harrison likely be
inexpensive for an NFL team, he might also be
potentially better than most of the
aforementioned 2011 Free Agent RB options as
well.
What if this was
July 2010, and not 2011?
If this lockout period-in-time and subsequent
frenzied Free Agency situation was all happening
with Jerome Harrison heading to Free
Agency coming off his actual 2009 season -- it's
possible that Harrison may have been near/at the
top of the list of available/desired Free Agent
RBs. Which is a radical difference one year
later, as now Harrison is barely mentioned by
anyone with any enthusiasm (if he's mentioned at
all).
Harrison finished the 2009 season with 3
amazing games 100+ yard rushing games --
tallying 187.0 rushing yards per game in that
span, along with 5.3 yards per carry and 5 TDs
in those three games. He also had the
memorable/record-setting 286 rushing yards/3 TD
game in Week-15 against Kansas City.
When Harrison "touched" (rush + rec) the ball
10+ times in 2009 (six games total), he had the
productivity of a top-tier RB for Fantasy
Football. Taking the six games in 2009
where he had 10+ touches, and extrapolating the
numbers into a full 16-game season (based on
15.0 carries per game); Harrison's statistical
output projected for a full season as:
- 1,146 rushing yards
- 56 receptions
- 421 receiving yards
- 12 TDs
- 1,567 total yards (rush + rec)
- 13.9 Fantasy Football PPG
- 17.4 Fantasy Football PPR for PPR
scoring leagues
13.9 Fantasy Football PPG would make Harrison
arguably a solid 2nd or 3rd-Round Fantasy
Football draft pick value. As it is, Harrison is
not on many Dynasty League rosters going into
2011...and barely is Harrison mentioned in any
preseason 2011 publications (so far) for
traditional Fantasy Football Drafts.
Of course, the 2009 season was a long, long,
long time ago...like 2 whole seasons ago...
More fresh in our memories, is the fact that
Harrison was a 3rd-5th Round Fantasy Football RB
last preseason...and wound up as a major bust
pick for 2010. What actually did happen to
Harrison in 2010?
Harrison's 2010
disaster...
Harrison's 2010 started out slow, and then
crashed quickly. He split time right away with
Peyton Hillis in Game-1 against Tampa
Bay, out-rushing Hillis 52-41 yards (both had
just 9 carries). Harrison did show a flash of
his breakaway ability, with a 39-yard run in the
game. In Game-2 versus KC, Harrison took the
bulk of the carries with 16-8 over Hillis, but
Hillis out-rushed him 35-33 yards. Harrison did
have 35 yards receiving in the game. After two
games in 2010, Harrison was averaging 63.5 total
yards per game (rush + rec)...a pace for 1,106
total yards in a 16-game season; which is kinda
good but not great. Harrison was inactive in
Week-3 with a thigh injury, and Hillis rushed
for 100+ yards against the Ravens...and the rest
was 2010 Cleveland Browns and Madden-12 cover
history.
Harrison was later traded for peanuts
(actually for Mike Bell) to the Eagles in
Week-6 of 2010. Harrison actually had two games
for the Eagles in which he had 10+
carries/touches (Weeks 10 & 17). In those two
games, he had 109 yards and 99 yards rushing
respectively.
When Harrison "touches"
the ball 10+ times in a game...
Harrison has "touched" the ball 10+ times in
10 total games combined in 2009 and 2010.
Harrison's performance averages per game in
those 10 games:
- 106.2 yards rushing per game
- 4.9 yards per carry
- 0.6 rushing TDs per game, 0.8 total TDs
per game
- 129.4 total yards per game (rush + rec)
- 3.1 receptions per game
- 17.1 Fantasy Football PPG (3 fumbles in
that period as well)
- 20.2 Fantasy Football PPG in PPR league
scoring
Less the monster 286-yard rushing game of
2009, Harrison still has a respectable 13.7
Fantasy Football PPG average with 10+ touches in
the past 2 seasons (16.9 PPG for PPR scoring).
When given the chance, Harrison has produced
very well.
Our college statistical
analysis of Harrison:
Harrison was a 5th-Round selection in the
2006 NFL Draft, but he rated as our #2 RB
overall in the 2006 RB class...behind only
DeAngelo Williams, but ahead of Reggie
Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew among
others.
Harrison rushed for 1,900 yards in his Senior
season for Washington State in 2005, and had
another 206 yards gained receiving (2,106 total
yards in 11 games). He also added 17 TDs that
season as well. Harrison ran for 110+ yards in
every game he played in that 2005 season --
including an amazing 4 games with 200+ yards
rushing (vs. Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, and
Washington).
Harrison also holds a Pac-10 record with 14
consecutive games with 100+ yards rushing.
Harrison's 1,900 rushing yards in 2005 is the
all-time single record at Washington State.
Harrison had 10+ carries/touches in his final
19 games at Washington State, and had amazing
productivity in those 19 games. His average
output in those final 19-games:
- 145.5 rushing yards per game
- 1.3 TDs per game
- five games with 200+ yards rushing
Not only did Harrison excel in our historical
analysis based on his performance, and
performance adjusted for strength of
opponent...but he also posted high for physical
measurables. Harrison ran a 4.47 40-yard dash
with very top agility measurements, and an
above-average bench press for RBs at the NFL
Combine.
Why Harrison isn't in
the Pro Football Hall-of Fame yet...
After re-reading the data above, I'm ready to
draft Harrison with my #1 overall pick in
Fantasy Football 2011...however, Harrison was
just traded for Mike Bell last
season...so what's "the catch" with Harrison?
-
Harrison appears to have some off-field
issues. Various reports over the years have
noted a lack of effort in practice. As well,
Harrison has been somewhat injury prone,
missing games for nagging injuries.
-
Harrison's isolated games of "greatness"
over the past two seasons have mostly come
late in the season. He's had a couple of
great Week-17 games, a nice statistical game
last year late in the Eagles blowout of the
Redskins (the Vick 6-TD game). His 286-yard
rushing game against KC, came in
Week-15...against a bad KC team.
It is not crazy to question Harrison's
performance as a late-season phenomena, playing
on a bad Browns team against other porous teams.
In Harrison's defense -- it is odd/intriguing
that every time Harrison gets any type of
opportunity, he usually punches up big
numbers...going back as far as his college
performance as well.
2011 Harrison prognosis:
We think Harrison is a talent, but we're also
scarred by the ups and downs of the past 2
seasons.
Harrison's has had some huge NFL games
statistically. He had terrific ratings in our
system for incoming college RBs historically in
2006, rating as a potential future NFL elite.
Unlike many other "hot" college rookies of 2011,
Harrison has actually stepped onto an NFL field
and tore up opponents...he has proven (to a
degree) that he is worthy at the pro-level. 90%+
of the RBs drafted this season will probably not
rush for as many yards in their career as
Harrison has in his career right now.
There's a lot to like on Harrison, and I
think the Eagles would love to keep him; as he
is a perfect West-Coast RB...but Harrison has
already stated that he wants to go somewhere
where he can be a starter. It is doubtful
Harrison is going to be signed to be a feature
RB for any NFL team in the next few days/weeks,
but there are some scenarios I think he could be
brought into...and find his way into the
starting lineup quickly. Best case scenarios for
a quick impact:
-
Cincinnati Bengals -- should Cincy
let Cedric Benson walk, this could be
a spot where other RBs with better options
don't want to play for the Bengals
organization...but Harrison is a beggar who
can't be a chooser.
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- they have the
power RB in LeGarrette Blount, but
could use a nice speed/3rd down RB option.
Harrison on Tampa Bay, I would move him way
up our 2011 RB list...as I think Blount
would be an easy target for Harrison to jump
him on the depth chart/take the majority of
the carries from (we're not "pro-Blount").
-
Seattle Seahawks -- Harrison is a
former in-state/Washington State star, and
could team with Marshawn Lynch and be
the Seahawks speed-RB...and I could also see
him becoming the main RB of the two.
-
Denver Broncos -- the Broncos are
tracking over the new/proposed NFL salary
cap already, and if they truly have
Knowshon Moreno anxiety (as has been
reported of late)...then Harrison could be a
cheap look at an alternative RB by the
Broncos.
I think it's more likely that Harrison signs
with a weaker team with the opportunity to play
(like the group above, yes I think TB is a
weaker team), versus re-signing with Philly or
some other contender like the Steelers, to
become their insurance chip RB. If/when Harrison
sneaks onto a team that gives him some potential
opportunity upside, his value in the Fantasy
Football world is going to jump.
Considering Harrison for
Dynasty League Rookie Drafts Upcoming in
late-July or early-August?
I'm not pushing Harrison as the secret
breakout star of 2011 that you must get at all
costs. I would like to advance that he should be
up for consideration as a cheap trade
acquisition to squat on, or a late-round Dynasty
Rookie draft pick if available...before he signs
with his new mystery team for 2011. If Harrison
signs with a Denver or Seattle (for example)
today, then tomorrow his value is going to go
from forgotten to "what if"...and he will be in
some kind of demand again.
Whether for a Dynasty League now or a
traditional Fantasy Football season draft
upcoming in a few weeks...Jerome Harrison
is not a slam-dunk/given star for Fantasy
Football 2011, but he is a RB with a respectable
track-record and upside still -- and I think is
a RB to at least keep on our radar screens/draft
lists for a low-risk chance a 2011 "lottery
ticket" Fantasy Football RB.
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