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With
the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss by
the Giants, who is going to be the Fantasy
Football "winner" among the WRs left on
the Giants roster?
The player
whom we think could be the biggest, hidden
winner of this "No Smith/Boss" scenario
for the Giants is not a WR, but 3rd-year
TE Travis Beckum. We would feel a
lot stronger about that if Beckum were not
fighting nagging injuries (he missed the
opening preseason game). Beckum was the
highest rated TE, among the 2009 TE class,
that we ran our statistical scouting analysis
on. Beckum's top attribute being tremendous
hands, as displayed in our system analysis
by having the single best ratings that we
have for possession/receiving-metrics among
any TEs we've analyzed in the past 5+years.
Most people
are doing the math that no Steve Smith
equals a bump for Mario Manningham,
and Manningham is moving up Fantasy Football
Draft ADP trends since the Smith signing
with the Eagles. We think Manningham is
now a very over-valued "stock"...one which
we would sell. Manningham is a nice complimentary
WR, but not a star/front-line WR. Manningham
is not built like Beckum, Steve Smith or
even 2010 UDFA Giants WR Victor Cruz.
Manningham is skinny at 6'0, 185 pounds...he
cannot take the beating that more sturdy
WRs would be able to.
Manningham is better in
a Steve Breaston-type role of exploiting
the fact that the defense is focused on
the more elite WR threats -- like Hakeem
Nicks and Steve Smith. Facing
better coverage -- Manningham could leave
Fantasy Football GMs a little flat versus
the lofty expectations. Manningham did well/good
statistically when Smith was out last season,
but at one point last year, it appeared
that Ramses Barden was possibly moving
Manningham out of the picture, but then
Barden got hurt right after Smith did.
We think Manningham is
a "trap door" for Fantasy Football 2011
-- he will/can be good, but not a consistent
top-20 WR in Fantasy Football level of good.
There are a lot of other WRs I'd like to
have around the 20th WR off the draft list
than Mario Manningham.
-
2010 Manningham statistical
performance with S.Smith starting (3.1
rec, 48.1 yards, 0.4 TDs, 4.5 targets
per game) = 7.1 PPG Fantasy Football
scoring, 10.2 PPR scoring. A top-40
WR PPG performance for Manningham.
-
2010 Manningham statistical
performance without S.Smith playing
(4.4 rec, 65.4 yards, 0.7 TDs, 7.0 targets
per game) = 10.5 PPG Fantasy Football
scoring, 15.0 PPR scoring. A top-15
WR PPG performance for Manningham.
*We exclude Week-17 stats as not indicative
of normal performance.
The most likely WR to
take over the Steve Smith role, to
us, is 2010 UDFA WR Victor Cruz.
Cruz was the talk of camp in 2010, and he
has a body-profile of size/speed combo that
better fits the role of possession/Steve
Smith-type WR than Manningham does (Cruz
us 6'0, 205...about 20-25 pound heavier
than Manningham). Cruz is an unknown commodity
in the NFL, and our statistical scouting
out of college graded him more as average...but
he might be the bigger beneficiary given
this situation. We like Cruz over rookie
Jerrel Jernigan, but we would not
go out of our way to acquire/draft either.
Hakeem Nicks
is really not affected too much by Steve
Smith's absence. Nicks is an
elite WR that is going to draw primary coverage
and double coverage no matter what...and
he has/will perform right through any coverage.
Ahmad Bradshaw
could see an increase in value in a PPR
league from the absence of Steve Smith.
Bradshaw is already a nice option in the
passing game, but losing an elite possession
WR like Steve Smith could land Bradshaw
more dump-off passes from Eli, as the
Steve Smith replacements may be less
trusted (and less open).
-
2010 Bradshaw statistical
output with S.Smith starting (2.5 rec,
17.5 yards, 0.0 TDs, 3.1 targets per
game)
-
2010 Bradshaw statistical
output without S.Smith playing (3.6
rec, 23.7 yards, 0.0 TDs, 4.3 targets
per game) *excludes Week-17 stats
Ramses Barden
is an X-factor in all this. Barden is not
a Steve Smith-type WR. Barden is
6'6+, a massive target to stretch the field
or in the red-zone. Barden was beginning
to push Manningham for the 3rd WR-role,
but his injury in Week-10 wiped out any
of that.
Summary:
-
We think Mario Manningham
is over-priced going into Fantasy Football
Drafts with to the Smith/Boss absence
-
We like Travis Beckum
as a "sleeper" in the Smith/Boss absence,
if he gets healthy and has time in camp
before season start
-
We like Victor Cruz
over rookie Jerrel Jernigan,
but not enough to "move us" to do anything
about it
-
Ahmad Bradshaw
has upside in the receiving game in
this "No Smith/Boss" scenario
-
Hakeem Nicks
is not affected one way or the other
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