So, you believe Peyton Manning
will
NOT start
the 2011 season?
Actually, you've probably said it this way --
"one bad hit, and Manning is out...I'm not
touching that risk for Fantasy Football!"
If you factor in the risk of Peyton Manning's
neck injury issue (along with the fact that he
will be 35.5 years old to start this season),
you have to do a ton of "domino effect" Fantasy
Football-value discounting/slashing. Some of the
"ripple effects" of a Peyton Manning injury
filled, or partial season, are quite obvious.
However, I think there is one other huge Fantasy
Football Draft-value reverberation that one no
one is likely talking about (they will poach it
after I write it here, but you can at least
claim that you heard the concept here first).
First, we'll discuss the easy ones -- then I'll
steer this car off the road...
The "no-brainer"
connect-the-dots on a Peyton Manning injury
laded season:
-
Obviously, a Curtis Painter-led (or Dan
Orlovsky, or Mike Hartline) Colts Offense
immediately destroys all the Colts WRs for
Fantasy Football 2011. The "big-3" (Wayne,
Collie, Garcon), are all highly rated for
Fantasy Football 2011...all 3 are in the
majority of top-30 WRs for Fantasy Football
2011. You can slash their draft rankings all
down to outside of the top-25 WRs easy
(Larry Fitzgerald 2010, anyone?). None of
the Colts-trio of WRs is Larry Fitzgerald,
so all 3 may drop outside the top-30.
-
Joseph Addai is already at risk as it is,
now he will fall even further. Donald Brown
is the more talented (skill-wise) RB at this
point in their careers/age, but he cannot
stay on the field long enough to get
traction. Addai "plays well" with Peyton,
and thus Addai would be another Fantasy
Football casualty of a Peyton-injury season.
-
Delone Carter, the 4th-Round 2011 RB draft
pick out of Syracuse -- a huge physical
presence (5'9, 222) in the Colts backfield
for all the short yardage TDs (like Javarris
James stole last year...only better). Under
Peyton Manning, there are plenty of scoring
opportunities for Carter (or someone)...but
under Orlovsky, not so much on the
short-yardage TD opportunities.
-
Adam Vinatieri, like all Colts will be
effected for scoring. You want a Fantasy
Football kicker on a high-powered offense
vs. bad defenses, without Manning leading
the Colts -- Vinatieri is irrelevant for
Fantasy Football 2011.
-
Dallas Clark's projected Fantasy
scoring/rankings probably falls harder than
any single Colts player for Fantasy Football
2011.
-
The Colts Team Defense is not normally a big
play for Fantasy Football lately, but the
offense isn't likely to help the Colts
defense under any circumstances.
If you are truly thinking Peyton Manning is a
"risk" with this "neck thing", don't you then
also have to factor that risk and/or drop your
Fantasy Football Draft rankings on all the key
Colts skill players?
Follow our 2011 NFL Preseason game recaps, notes
and scouting --
Fantasy Football Metrics – RC Fischer Blog |
Fantasy Football Scouting and Dynasty Leagues
Dynasty League/long-term
impacts...
Not only is a Peyton Manning injury detrimental
to all the Colts skill positions for 2011, but
now you have the centerpiece of the Fantasy
Football universe for the Colts skill players --
Addai, Collie, Garcon, Wayne, Clark, etc. in
jeopardy for the future. A Manning injury would
kill all their 2011 stats, but then you also
have to ask, "is there any future upside with a
36.5 year old QB coming off neck issues for
2012"? Area all the "elder" Colts skill players
at their peak Fantasy Football value right this
second? Should you flip them via trade in a
lateral move, just to cut out some of the
downside risk?
-
The long-term outlook is already shaky for
Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai
due to age and mileage. The future doesn't
look good at all without Peyton for them.
-
Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon would be just
regular/unknown WRs with a decent/non-Peyton
QB, and their 3-5 year long-term Fantasy
Football value drops considerably without
Peyton.
-
Anthony Gonzalez, Blair White and Jacob
Tamme become afterthoughts without Peyton
Manning, if you were holding roster spots
for these guys. If you knew Peyton was gone
for 2011, you'd drop those players in about
two-seconds right now.
The hidden-value behind a
Peyton Manning injury...
Now that we've painted Peyton Manning into a
figurative "Godzilla", destroying any and all
helpless villagers of his skill
position teammates' Fantasy Football (and NFL)
careers -- how can there be a hidden 2011 value
consideration in all this? Let me set up the
philosophy:
It's likely Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster will
be drafted #1 overall in most Fantasy Football
drafts (maybe Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles).
What would happen if those RBs were to get
hurt/lost for the season right now?
-
Peterson would be replaced by the very
talented (our computer analysis opinion)
Toby Gerhart. Gerhart would rocket into
among the top-15 preseason rated/ADP RBs for
the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft.
-
Foster would be replaced by Steve Slaton
and/or Ben Tate. Slaton would jump into the
top 15-20 maybe, depending upon Tate's
injury status. A healthy Ben Tate, listed as
the starter, would go right into the top-15
preseason rated/ADP for Fantasy Football
RBs, maybe a top-10 (blame society for
overvaluing rookies/unknown commodities with
"upside").
-
C. Johnson would be replaced, by Javon
Ringer. Ringer would then be a top-15
preseason rated/ADP RB for Fantasy Football
2011 preseason.
-
Charles would be replaced by Thomas Jones
and/or Le'Ron McClain...and Jones would be a
top-15 preseason rated/ADP RB for Fantasy
Football Drafts. McClain might be top-25.
The point being, if an injured main-carry RB is
replaced with a RB capable of a top 10-15-20
type Fantasy Football season. These "backups",
thrust in as starters, would not be #1/elite
Fantasy Football talent (in theory), but still
worthy of a potential top-20 season. If
Peterson, Foster, CJ, Charles gets hurt...the
mock draft list for RBs shifts, but their
replacements would have very solid value.
Rare is the WR who has no real replacement, i.e.
Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem
Nicks...and maybe Andre Johnson. There is no
literal replacing Calvin or Fitzgerald. Mario
Manningham would jump into the top-15 preseason
rated/ADP among WRs if Nicks went down. Kevin
Walter and Dorin Dickerson would move up
considerably, but probably top-30 at best.
This is just what we project the public would do
off these injuries...not what we think should be
done. The public also doesn't value WRs as much
as RBs in Fantasy Football, for good reason. The
WR list/output in reality, is often turbulent --
filled with "hot and cold streaks" and several
"new" options week in and out. There are
seemingly always good WR options available, even
if in reality there isn't...but it seems like
there is (like Brandon Lloyd, Stevie Johnson,
Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt etc. last season).
What isn't readily available off an injury to a
main starter -- an elite NFL/Fantasy Football QB
backup to swiftly replace the current elite QB
playing the position. There are respectable
fill-ins, but not a bunch of Tom Brady's just
sitting around waiting for their chance. Michael
Vick was an aberration to this thesis last year,
but if Peyton Manning were to be announced to
miss all of 2011 right now -- there would be a
huge void at the top of the Fantasy Football QB
rankings. Curtis Painter would not pole vault
into the top-10 (or top-30) preseason rated/ADP
Fantasy Football QBs. The "backup" QB position
is nothing like the other "backups" to the top
Fantasy Football players.
If Dallas Clark goes down, Jacob Tamme steps in
and doesn't miss a beat. Will Thomas Jones steal
Jamaal Charles carries, or will Mike Tolbert
split carries with Ryan Matthews? DeSean Jackson
is hurt, Jeremy Maclin rises in value. There is
no debate or concern on Dan Orlovsky's Fantasy
Football usefulness with a healthy or injured
Peyton Manning, Peyton is "irreplaceable."
There is a hidden value to an irreplaceable
Peyton Manning. Not only is he irreplaceable on
the field for the Colts, he is irreplaceable
among the "elite" Fantasy Football QBs. Do you
know how I know that Peyton is an elite? I'm a
number's guy, but I also can tell this with the
emotional reaction of all of us...which goes
like this:
Here is 99% of every Fantasy Football GM's
draft strategy:
Either you target/covet Aaron Rodgers and
Michael Vick, and go after them...but you do
have the comfort of knowing if you miss out on
them, you have your fallback safety net --
Brees, Brady, P.Manning and maybe Rivers. I
personally would add Big Ben (and maybe Romo) in
there, but the data says most "drafters" don't.
OR
You don't care that much on QB, you're going to
take your QB 3rd-4th Round, whomever is best
available among that top 5-7. However, If there
is a QB run and you miss out on the top 5-7
group -- you will be losing sleep the rest of
the week/season.
Both QB draft strategies have a common theme --
some level of panic after the top 5-7 QBs are
gone.
Five elite NFL/FF QBs, like a Mount Rushmore --
Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Brady, Peyton Manning.
Miss out on those 5, and your throat starts to
tighten a bit during the draft..."what if I miss
Roethlisberger or Rivers too," you think/panic?
The thought of having to be stuck with Eli
Manning or Jay Cutler as your 2011 starter sends
chills down your spine. Maybe you will "settle"
for Matt Schaub. Maybe you will convince
yourself that Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, or Kevin
Kolb is going to take that "next step". There is
some set of risk, and a lower explosive upside,
outside of that top 5-7 QBs for Fantasy
Football.
There is an "elite-5", and I would say maybe as
much as 7 total top QBs...all of them usually
scoring a step above the rest, but most
importantly -- all are the most capable of
having a monster season (much more than anyone
outside this top 5-7). All 5-7 of these QBs are
weekly starts for your team all season no matter
who they are playing, which is a Fantasy GMs
dream -- insert _____ QB into the lineup and
don't worry about it until their Bye-Week.
Have you figured out the domino effect on value
of a Peyton Manning's injury?
Peyton Manning injury
potential and "supply and demand" economics...
If there are only 5-7 elite Fantasy Football
QBs, what happens when you take away one? Simple
math says, now there is only 4-6 elite Fantasy
Football QBs remaining for 2011. How much more
valuable did the (now) top-4 elite QBs just
become relative to all other QBs, and relative
to all the number crunching of the top 5-10 at
the other skill positions?
There is no replacing Peyton Manning from the
Fantasy Football QB draft list. He simply
vanishes, leaving the remaining high-scoring QBs
in a "supply and demand" crunch. A lower supply,
a greater demand is created. Low supply and high
demand leads to "higher prices" in economics.
The Fantasy Football equivalent would be that
the Fantasy Football Draft "marketplace" devoid
of Peyton Manning causes a "higher" draft
status/value for the remaining elite Fantasy
Football QBs.
We have Vick and Rodgers on another level for
scoring than the other QBs for 2011, but Brees,
Brady, Manning and Rivers have a
chance/track-record to compete with them for
Fantasy Football 2011...and that's all the QBs
we can see challenging the upper-tier QBs
(Rodgers, Vick). Everyone else is a "longer"
shot to do it, and/or can't obtain/sustain that
level for a variety of reasons.
To me, Manning is one of 6 Fantasy Football QBs
on a whole different planet than the rest of the
class (in 2011). I know there is Romo, Schaub,
Ryan, etc. arguments to be made. However, I don't
have to argue to convince you that Peyton
Manning is an elite (in theory) for Fantasy
Football, but you have to argue with me (and
yourself) on Romo, Schaub, Ryan...and therefore,
you lose (in theory, on paper). Take away Peyton
Manning, and (to me) 6 great Fantasy Football QB
options just went to 5....and thus, the
remaining 5 QBs just became more valuable.
Many (like me) theorize that Michael Vick is
awesome for Fantasy Football (because of rushing
totals), but we won't likely touch him due to
his injury risk and/or reverting back to "old
ways" problems (problem being he was a bad QB).
If you have that school of thought...the elite
QB list just dropped from 5 to 4 (without
Peyton). Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers just
became even more valuable.
What does this all mean?
If you think Peyton is at risk (and he is to
some degree), and Vick is at risk (and he is) --
you are really saying that Aaron Rodgers might
be the single best player (relative value to the
available draft field of all the positions) for
Fantasy Football 2011. We would advance that
argument is statistically justifiable (looking
at the relative value of all players and
positions). You are also saying Drew Brees is
worth a lot more than others are drafting him at
ADP right now.
For my money, in a 6-point per TD pass Fantasy
league -- you have to think long hard about
defying the unwritten/written "RB first" rule,
and consider Aaron Rodgers as the single most
valuable player in Fantasy Football 2011. In a
4-point per TD pass Fantasy Football league,
maybe a little more debatable as the QB scoring
spread between the top group isn't as
great...but still an idea worth looking at.
Should you take Aaron Rodgers first, maybe? The
"home run" in all this would be, if your league
shuns 1st-Round draft pick QBs...having that
late #10-11-12 draft slot might be the perfect
position to be in -- able to secure what you
want with this first pick, and land Rodgers in
the second. Alternatively, you could "shock"
your fellow draft mates and take Rodgers
#8-9-10+ in the 1st-Round, and know that you
will still get a top skill player in the early
2nd-Round.
If you think Peyton Manning and Michael Vick
will be care free for all of 2011, disregard
this article...
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