One of my more "staple" shows to watch on TV,
is CNBC's Mad Money -- hosted by
Jim Kramer. I watch CNBC more in a given
week, than I have watched ESPN and the NFL
Network combined in 2011 in total so far. I
prefer to get my football info from other
sources, but for business and Wall Street
news...it's CNBC.
The funny thing about me and Jim Cramer
is, the last few times he made a stock
recommendation and I considered/acted on it...so
far, I've been burned/am sitting with a loss.
Most recently (a few months back), Cramer laid
out the case for Ford (F) stock off of a
potential major earnings beat, with another big
beat potentially coming, and then combining that
with the General Motors IPO that was about to
happen...and he saw Ford going from approx $16
per share to $20+ in short order. I was already
predisposed toward Ford, as I love what the CEO
is doing by rejecting the Governments bail out
and that they are also paying down debt...plus
making a bunch of profit. I felt good about
Ford, and then with Cramer's passionate
support...I went for it. I still have my $16
shares, and some $15 shares, and some $14
shares, and some $11 shares (current price
$11+). I still have hopes for my Ford
investment, but so far it hasn't worked out...
I am somewhat mad at Jim Cramer
because of this, although I respect the heck out
of him, and the work he produces. I would never
call his show and shout "ba-ba-ba-ba booyaa",
some of the theatrics I could live without. What
I really respect -- Cramer, no matter what you
think of him, does his homework. Cramer,
presents compelling, well-thought out, easily
laid out to understand stock/business theories.
Cramer has more experience than I do in the
stock game, and does 100x the homework daily.
However, the last 3 times I can remember, that I
was moved to buy a stock, mostly due to the case
Cramer made for it -- Merck, Annaly Mortgage,
and Ford...I lost money (real and on paper
currently).
The problem with me remembering the "downs",
and blaming Cramer is -- I could have sold Merck
at a gain...but I held in, and the economy
tanked in 2009; and the rest is history. Annaly,
I sold in a panic drop...but now the stock is
well ahead of where I originally bought it (plus
has a huge dividend, that I mostly missed out on
the last 2 years). What I remember as "downs",
had opportunities to payoff ultimately...but I
missed it. The other problem with remembering
all the "downs", and blaming Cramer is...I tend
to forget all the "ups" Cramer has come through
with for me (and probably a ton that I ignored).
I tend to remember the losses/wrong calls...and
I get a little gun shy of acting on the next
recommendation.
The same thing is likely to happen with our
readers and followers. Something we project in
the 2011 (or 2012, 2013 etc etc) Fantasy
Football season, is bound to go wrong.
It's going to happen. We are going to be
wrong about a specific thing. It just happened
today. I recommended to clients for a few weeks
-- a play on Peyton Manning as an early
6th-8th Round Fantasy Football Draft take for a
QB-2, as a risk/reward gamble on future
valuation. I gambled that Peyton would miss a
game or two, but to be back by the time the
various QB bye-weeks started hitting...and thus
creating a huge trade chip value. Now it looks
like Peyton quite possibly may never play
football again. Looks like we gambled, and lost.
We had sound logic, and a compelling business
case, but the circumstance turned...now some
clients are caught in a small trap on it -- do
they dump Peyton now and grab a waiver
something, or sit and wait to see what happens,
knowing it's a dead roster spot for at least a
week or two or more? Fortunately, we have a
good/long track record with many clients...they
realize we have a methodology, and have more
wins than losses. However, the losses still
sting none the less.
If you follow all of our recommendations,
thank you...and prepare to be wrong along with
us on occasion. I rarely remember our "smart"
picks. Having Jamaal Charles and
Hakeem Nicks in the top-5 at their position
in the 2010 preseason, when no one else did...a
home run last year. Having Kevin Kolb in
our top-5 QBs last year, turned out to be
not-so-genius...but the "Kolb crime" may have
been that it was just slightly ahead of its
time. We were high on Jordy Nelson last
year, and he finally broke through last
year...in the NFL playoffs. We looked foolish in
the regular season. We didn't feel Arian
Foster would break-out in 2010, and we
started him with a low projection in Week-1 (he
only had 3 TDs Week-1).
All of that to say, we hope you enjoy our
work this year, and we appreciate your
support...it's been amazing. We wish you all
good luck, and we hope that the larger majority
of our recommendations, and research will help
you...but sometimes it won't land...or not right
away. Sometimes the theory will need time to pan
out, but we all tend to get panicky...especially
early in the season, especially if we lose in
Week-1.
My good friend Gordon Gekko once told
me, "never get emotional about a stock".
My best advice for Fantasy Football, "never
get emotional about a NFL player"....because
we all will want to, especially in Week-1. The
2011 Thursday Night Game between the Saints and
Packers...we are going to be so football
starved/crazed, we are going to over analyze it
and over-think it (like every year). Those that
did that last season, got burned...
Last season the Saints played the Vikings in the
opener, and the following occurred in that game
for Fantasy Football:
-
Pierre Thomas outdueled Adrian
Peterson
-
Brett Favre was kinda OK, and Drew
Brees was a little under-whelming
-
Visanthe Shiancoe became a "must
have" TE
-
Lance Moore and Percy Harvin
were barely noticeable
Look back above, because after that
week...none of that was really true again for
Fantasy Football 2010. ESPN/NFL Network/Fantasy
websites all went insane over Shiancoe the rest
of the next week. Don't get over emotional about
this Week-1, or this Thursday Night Game. Take
advantage of those that do.
Jim Cramer does an amazing thing on
his show each night...he does "The Lightning
Round". "The Lightning Round", is
where callers call in and throw out a real stock
live on the air...and Cramer has to respond with
an opinion. I know it's not scripted, because
just tonight Cramer had to apologize because he
was not knowledgeable about a caller's stock,
and he didn't offer an opinion...however, most
times he knows the stock cold. Hundreds and
hundreds of stocks, and Cramer knows nearly all
of them off the top of his head...not only the
name, but who they are and what they do...and he
offers a quick synopsis of what his feeling
going forward is. When you step back and
consider what he is doing, it is amazing.
"The Lightning Round" would be rather
boring if the callers called in and asked
something like, "hey...what about Ford, ticker
symbol (F)?" -- then off that question Cramer
responds, "well it's a good company, but cars
aren't selling well in this economy, but the
economy might come back soon, but unemployment
is still bad". The show would suck if Cramer
came out and gave you non-opinions, or
non-studied opinions you could hear anywhere.
Cramer makes a definitive call on every stock
that is "chucked" at him.
We make a definitive call on hundreds of
players preseason, and then we are tracking and
adjusting with the trends and news during the
season each week. Sometimes Cramer makes a bad
call or two out of his dozens of projections
each day...sometimes it's a miss for just
tomorrow or sometimes for a month...or maybe
things shift, and he misses it completely.
We just finished projecting 450+ players for
Week-1...I guarantee you, that some of them will
be off. We're just trying to be more right than
wrong, by a 70-30 factor, and we try to learn
and adapt as we go. We use a computer-based,
Moneyball/Freakonomics/Stock Market-esque system
to try to take emotion out of our Fantasy
Football decisions, and even the computer is
wrong sometimes...but it's easier,
psychologically, for us to yell at the computer.
Good Luck in this 2011 Fantasy Football
season. Enjoy the ride. We hope that we can help
in some way, or at least entertain.
In the famous words of Apollo Creed..."ding,
ding"....It's time for some football!
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