The NFL hates the Kansas City Chiefs in
2011...
I say that sarcastically, but if you were a
KC fan and looked over the schedule...you might
come to a quick conclusion that, essentially,
the 2011 season is over before it begins. Not
only is the difficulty of their schedule an
issue for KC fans, it is an issue for 2011
Fantasy Football GMs to deal with as well.
I know, a few Fantasy Football GMs reading
this are rolling their eyes right now. "You
can't predict a schedule ahead"...I hear
this all the time, and I reject it. Certainly
you cannot predict the entire outcome of the
2011 season ahead of time, but you can make very
strong assumptions on the teams that have been
strong defensively based on personnel, coaching
and recent history. Do most of us not already
think that (examples) the Jets, or Packers, or
Steelers aren't going to be a very formidable
NFL defense in 2011...can we not "predict" that
ahead?
With such a slim Fantasy Football scoring
margin between top players -- interpreting and
projecting the schedule/opponent impact is
gigantic. Given this philosophy, we did a major
pause when looking at computer projections for
players...and saw several Kansas City Chiefs
players with their 2011 Fantasy Football scoring
charts falling like a bad stock market.
When you look over the KC schedule, it is
downright frightening for Fantasy Football (and
if you are a KC fan). The impact of the rugged
KC schedule may take center stage with anyone
who has the first few picks in their Fantasy
Football league, and is considering Jamaal
Charles with that pick, as Charles is
sitting at/near the top of many early 2011
Fantasy Football Mock Drafts. Not only will
Fantasy Football GMs invest heavily in
J.Charles, but Dwayne Bowe and Matt
Cassel are hot names sitting higher than
ever (for them) in Fantasy Football ranks by
position.
Before you make a heavy investment in
Charles, or proclaim Cassel and/or Bowe a
"sleeper"...you might want to drink in the 2011
schedule, and consider the historical
performance of these players against stronger
opponents recently....and that's just what we
will do in this article, but first let's take a
look at the KC schedule game-by-game; and see if
you agree with our "doomsday scenario".
If you don't think schedule matters, all you
need to do is look back at the KC schedule from
2010...the same KC team that went from dogs in
2009, to a division winning playoff team in
2010. KC had only 3 regular season matchups with
teams with a winning/even records in 2010 (4 if
you include their playoff game) and posted a
(1-3) overall record against these "winning"
teams. Having only 3 regular season games
against teams with a winning/even record is
very, very low (NYG and IND were next with 5 of
these matchups in the 2010 regular season...most
teams had 6-8 matchups). The one game KC did win
against a winning record team (the opener
against SD), it was pouring rain and the ball
was squirting all over, and SD dropped a game
tying TD late...KC was lucky to win their 1 game
against the tougher/winning record opponents,
and they lost the other 3 by an average of 21.3
points per game.
KC (luckily) faced 13 opponents who had a
losing record in 2010...and posted a (9-4)
record, 3 of the 4 losses on the road. KC's
schedule is not projecting as fortunate in 2011.
The KC 2011 schedule is very unusual, it is a
mixed bag early...and the mega-problem hits in
Week-11, when KC has a 5 game string that
includes the 2010 NFL Final Four in
back-to-back-to-back-to-back scheduled games
(PIT, CHI, NYJ, GB). If that wasn't bad enough,
this intense 5 game stretch starts with the
NFL's 2010 best record team in the New England
Patriots. By all rights, KC is going to lose 4
or 5 games in that stretch...and for Fantasy
Football purposes, they are facing 4-5 of the
top defenses in all of the NFL right in a row.
A quick look at the KC
2011 schedule overall:
Week 1 = Home against Buffalo
-- a great matchup across the board, the season
starts out great and KC is likely (1-0) with
likely several good Fantasy Football
performances.
Week 2 = Away against Detroit
-- this is a pivotal game in the KC overall
analysis/projection. At first Detroit wouldn't
seem to be a scare, but the smart money is
moving with Detroit as a contender this
season...at minimum, the Lions Defense was much
better last season and we project will be even
better this season. KC may be lucky to win this
game, but for Fantasy Football -- the passing
game is probably going to be under duress with
that Lions D-Line.
Week 3 = Away against San Diego
-- San Diego had one of the top (young) defenses
in the NFL in 2010. We all know San Diego is
talented. Cassel was 10-22 for 68 yards against
SD the one time he faced them in 2010 (the rainy
opener Week-1). Bowe faced SD twice and had 2
catches on 12 targets for 16 yards total, and 0
TDs. Charles was stifled most of the opening
game vs. SD, but broke a long TD run and
finished with 92 yards on 11 carries...in their
2nd matchup, Charles had a 2010 season low 40
yards on 10 carries...his lowest output with 10+
carries in his career.
Likely you would not use Cassel or Bowe for
Fantasy Football in Week-3.
Week 4 = Home against the
Vikings -- decent defensive personnel, now with
Leslie Frazier as head coach...the
Vikings could be a better Defense in 2011, but
we still project them as more middle-of-the
road. A safe game (in theory) for KC.
Week 5 = Away against Indy --
last season KC lost to Indy by 10 points in a
(rare for Indy) defensive battle. Neither Bowe,
Cassel, or Charles (or any Chiefs player)
recorded a TD. *At this point in the season
(depending upon the DET game) KC is either (3-2)
or (2-3) theoretically, still OK.
Week 6 = Bye Week -- an earlier
Bye, and we hate that early Bye in Fantasy
Football. Not great for KC either, because they
are going to need this Bye/rest in a few
weeks...
Week 7 = Away against the
Raiders -- KC lost to Oakland twice last year,
but without Nnamdi Asomungha...OAK should
be a "cake walk".
Week 8 = Home with San Diego --
a huge divisional game. No matter how it goes
for KC, as we chronicled earlier, it could be
muted performance for all Fantasy Football
aspects for KC due to the very good SD Defense.
Week 9 = Home with Miami -- the
Dolphins have been a solid defense the past 2
seasons, not overwhelming...but not a pushover.
Week 10 = Home with Denver --
likely a safe play. The Denver Defense was very
good in 2009, and a train wreck in 2010. A new
coach, Champ Bailey, etc...but still not
projecting the Broncos Defense to be a huge
threat.
At this point we would say the Chiefs will be
(6-3) or (5-4), somewhere in that range...and
having likely to have had tough fantasy Football
matchups with SD (2x), and DET. However, nothing
they just went through will compare to the
following stretch...the key Fantasy Football
stretch/playoffs period of Weeks 11-15.
Week 11 = Away against the
Patriots -- a very tough Run Defense, and
gaining as a Pass Defense.
Week 12-15 = There is no sense
in even writing anything individually
week-by-week, the names of the opponents speak
for themselves -- PIT, @CHI, @NYJ, GB...all
likely very cold weather games and also very
likely 3-4 losses...and all 4 matchups are a
Fantasy Football sit for Cassel, Bowe. Not sure
if Charles is a sit against any team...but I
would feel very uncomfortable trying to make the
Fantasy Football playoffs, or win in the
playoffs, with Charles in a stretch with PIT,
CHI, NYJ, GB.
Week 16 = Away against the
Raiders -- if you've made this far in Fantasy
Football with Cassel, Bowe, or Charles,
etc...then congrats, and a big green light to
win your title. However, the odds are if you are
Jamaal Charles-dependent...then your team
didn't make the Fantasy Football playoffs, or
potentially you lost in the first Round of the
playoffs, due to a Charles letdown against the
Steelers or Bears or Jets. The Chiefs are
probably (6-8) or (7-7) going into this game,
and are likely a physically battered down
football team.
In a 12-13 regular season Fantasy Football
game season (depending upon your league's set
up), you might consider sitting Jamaal
Charles twice...or there could be
underperformance in 5-6 of those games
(especially late). Matt Cassel is likely
Fantasy Football useless in 7-9 games of 15
total in 2011 (not including NFL final
week/Game-16)...and if Cassel is useless, then
likely Bowe is too.
Perhaps you think the schedule impact theory
is "hysteria". Let us then move from a nice
theory, to looking at statistical trends...and
let the numbers help tell this story.
Matt Cassel (as a Chiefs
QB) vs. teams with a winning/even record:
Cassel had an incredible 2010 bounce-back
from his 2009 under-performance. The 2010 output
has people all "a twitter" for what he can do in
2011. Perhaps when you look at his recent
performance against teams with a winning record,
your 2011 enthusiasm on Cassel will be
"curbed"...considering he may face more winning
teams in 2011, than losing teams.
*"Losers" = Teams with a sub-.500 record
"Winners" = team with .500 or greater records
*Note Cassel was hurt/out in the KC 2nd
matchup with SD in 2010
*Note does not include Week-17 game
against OAK, we (almost) never count Week-17
games in our Fantasy Football analysis
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Comp Pct |
Pass Att per Game |
Pass Yds Per G |
Pass TDs |
INTs |
TD/INT ratio |
|
2010 |
vs. Losers |
12 |
61.5% |
27.9 |
231.4 |
26 |
5 |
5.2 |
|
2010 |
vs. Winners |
2 |
51.0% |
25.5 |
112.0 |
3 |
5 |
0.6 |
|
2010 |
vs. Playoffs |
1 |
50.0% |
18.0 |
70.0 |
0 |
3 |
0.0 |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Comp Pct |
Pass Att per Game |
Pass Yds Per G |
Pass TDs |
INTs |
TD/INT ratio |
|
2009 |
vs. Losers |
6 |
57.6% |
37.7 |
243.3 |
5 |
7 |
0.7 |
|
2009 |
vs. Winners |
8 |
57.3% |
27.9 |
157.1 |
11 |
8 |
1.4 |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Comp Pct |
Pass Att per Game |
Pass Yds Per G |
Pass TDs |
INTs |
TD/INT ratio |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Losers |
18 |
60.0% |
32.9 |
235.4 |
31 |
12 |
2.6 |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Win+Playoff |
11 |
55.8% |
26.5 |
141.0 |
14 |
16 |
0.9 |
Not only does Cassel's performance drop like
a stone against tougher competition, also hidden
in the stats is a noticeable decline in pass
attempts against better teams. Cassel could have
somewhere between 8-10 regular season games with
teams that have a winning record in 2011...much
more than the 2 he faced on 2010. If Cassel's
performance has its normal/historical decline
against stronger opponents, this is going to be
a very rough Fantasy Football (and non-Fantasy
Football) season for Cassel.
Taking his (above) 2009-10 stats per game
against "Winners + Playoffs" and "Losers"....and
doing an equal balance of the stats for a
"hypothetical" season (half a season vs.
winners, half vs. losers), Cassel's 2011 Fantasy
Football stats would look like (15 game Fantasy
Football season) = 2,895 yards passing, 23 TDs
with 14 INTs for a total of 12.0 Fantasy
Football Points per Game (1 pt per 25 yards, 4
pts per TD, -2 for INT) before rushing totals.
An average of 12.0-13.0 FF PPG puts Cassel
outside the top-12 for Fantasy Football QBs, as
well as outside the top-24...or virtually
useless for Fantasy Football besides and
emergency pickup/start, but definitely not a QB
you want to throw a preseason draft pick away
on.
Dwayne Bowe vs. teams
with a winning record the past 2 seasons:
As goes the difficult schedule/Matt
Cassel...so goes Dwayne Bowe.
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Rec per game |
Yards per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
% of Targets Caught |
|
2010 |
vs. Losers |
13 |
5.0 |
82.9 |
1.2 |
8.7 |
57.5% |
|
2010 |
vs. Winners |
3 |
1.3 |
16.3 |
0 |
6.7 |
20.0% |
|
2010 |
vs. Playoffs |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Rec per game |
Yards per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
% of Targets Caught |
|
2009 |
vs. Losers |
5 |
5.0 |
77.2 |
0.2 |
10.0 |
50.0% |
|
2009 |
vs. Winners |
6 |
3.7 |
33.8 |
0.5 |
6.3 |
57.9% |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Rec per game |
Yards per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
% of Targets Caught |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Losers |
18 |
4.6 |
79.8 |
0.9 |
8.7 |
57.0% |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Winners |
9 |
2.9 |
28.0 |
0.3 |
6.4 |
44.8% |
A hypothetical Fantasy Football season (15
games) with an equal balance schedule of
Winners/Losers opponents (based on 2009-10 data
above) would put Bowe's "hypothetical" 2011
season at 3.8 receptions per game, 53.9 yards
per game, 9 TDs = around 9.0 Fantasy Football
PPG (12.8 PPR PPG)...which would be around the
20-25th best PPG Fantasy Football scoring WR in
a season, and closer to 30th in a PPR league --
and not a top 10-12 Fantasy Football WR like he
is rating early for the 2011 Fantasy Football
Draft.
Jamaal Charles vs. teams
with a winning record the past 2 seasons:
Jamaal Charles is a special RB, and
the most "electric" RB in the NFL for 2010. For
those of us that had Charles from day-1 of the
2010 Fantasy Football season, we all wondered
why the Chiefs/Todd Haley did not use
Charles more often (just 14.4 carries per game,
Weeks 1-15)? One thing that comes to mind on
that is -- if you watch Charles, you can see he
is great...but also very wiry/smaller framed.
Charles is not a RB that is likely to take a
beating over a long haul...and he has fought
fumble issues in part due to that (our theory).
If his size/physique might be an issue -- how do
you think Charles is going to fair against a
5-week string of NE, PIT, CHI, NYJ, GB ?
Charles, unlike Cassel/Bowe, statistical
performance holds up fairly well against tougher
opponents...a slight 10-15% fade against
winning/even record teams (vs. losing record
teams).
If you are wrestling with who you might take
as a top Fantasy Football pick in 2011, Charles
has to be on the list of candidates. As a
tie-breaker among the top candidates, this 2011
KC schedule may be what causes us to pass on
Charles as a top 3-5 overall draft pick.
Actually, the more proper/slick play on Charles
would be to draft him appropriately and collect
the good/great performances early on up to the
trade deadline...and then have the "intestinal
fortitude" (if you're not in a Dynasty or Keeper
Fantasy Football League) to trade Charles ahead
of the pending/possible pre-Week 11-15 disaster.
A look at Charles performance against
winning/even teams and losing teams has 1
footnote for 2009-10...we considered only games
where he had 10+ carries, except the 2011
playoffs that we did count (which he had 9
carries). In 2009, Charles was used sparingly
until Week-10; that's when he emerged to
greatness...so we only looked at performance
when he became an established starter/main RB.
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Carries |
Rush Yds Per game |
YPC |
Rush TDs per game |
Rec per game |
Rec Yards per game |
Rec TD per game |
|
2010 |
vs. Losers |
12 |
14.9 |
96.8 |
6.5 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
35.3 |
0.3 |
|
2010 |
vs. Winners |
3 |
12.3 |
73.0 |
5.9 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
10.3 |
0.0 |
|
2010 |
vs. Playoffs |
1 |
9.0 |
82.0 |
9.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
15.0 |
1.0 |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Carries |
Rush Yds Per game |
YPC |
Rush TDs per game |
Rec per game |
Rec Yards per game |
Rec TD per game |
|
2009 |
vs. Losers |
3 |
21.0 |
133.3 |
6.3 |
1.0 |
4.3 |
22.7 |
0.0 |
|
2009 |
vs. Winners |
5 |
19.6 |
113.6 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
2.2 |
18.0 |
0.2 |
|
Year |
NFL opponents |
Games |
Carries |
Rush Yds Per game |
YPC |
Rush TDs per game |
Rec per game |
Rec Yards per game |
Rec TD per game |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Losers |
15 |
16.1 |
104.1 |
6.5 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
32.8 |
0.2 |
|
2009-10 |
vs. Win+Playoff |
9 |
16.0 |
96.6 |
6.0 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
15.1 |
0.2 |
A hypothetical season with an even balanced
schedule of winning/even and losing teams (based
on Charles 2009-10 history) would have Charles
averaging over 100+ yards rushing per game, 11
TDs and nearly 17.0 Fantasy Football points per
game (pre-fumble deduction)...and that's a
scoring level that would typically compete for
best among RBs in a season.
Summary
Interpreting a schedule ahead of an NFL
season is tricky, and there are things we all
can (and will) interpret/project
wrong...injuries, emerging rookies etc will have
an impact unforeseen on a couple of 2011
situations for sure. However, I think we could
all agree that the Patriots, Steelers, Bears,
Jets and Packers are going to be very good/great
teams in 2011 (and very good/great
defenses)...and KC has them all in a row in the
most important stretch in the Fantasy Football
season. At minimum, be aware...at maximum, steer
clear.
We will analyze and project Jamaal
Charles, Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki,
Thomas Jones and one of our secret "faves"
Jackie Battle,
and all the other Chiefs offensive players (and
Team Defense) that matter for Fantasy Football 2011
-- in our annual Draft Guide "the Big Board". We
rate 500+ offensive players, kickers and
team defenses -- statistically based analysis on
data trends, depth charts and strength of
opponent/schedule. Our draft guide is ever
changing with the major player news, injuries,
trades, etc. Purchase the guide once, and it
perpetually updates throughout the
season...right up to kickoff. The guide is
almost finished for version 1.0, and goes on
sale soon.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
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