I'm not taking joy in another person's pain.
Todd Heap has been a solid NFL TE for
years, and he is going to "land on his feet"
just fine. What we're excited about is for
Fantasy Football purposes -- our "perfect TE
storm" that we speculated/hoped might happen, is
now coming into focus.
Our 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide laments
the low-scoring projections our system gave to
the Ravens TE's Ed Dickson and Dennis
Pitta. Two of the higher TEs we've rated in
computer analysis, and unfortunately for them --
they are on the same team, and stuck behind the
steady Todd Heap. However, one barrier has been
removed -- the release of Heap.
There is another part to the "perfect TE
storm" -- the instant knee-jerk conclusion that
mainstream football news reports have gone to
already. A conclusion we think is short-sighted,
and possibly very wrong...the assumption that
Heap's release equals Ed Dickson as the
Ravens main TE. No slight to Dickson, who our
system acknowledges is a very good TE
prospect...however, our system absolutely loves
the other 2011 Ravens rookie TE = Dennis
Pitta. Because of the knee-jerk response of
attention to Dickson...it means that Pitta has
had a barrier removed in Heap, and is also going
to be able to fly below the radar (for now)
behind Dickson-hype.
Who is Dennis Pitta?
Pitta was the Ravens 4th-Round pick in 2010,
following the Ravens 3rd-Round pick in 2010 --
TE Ed Dickson. Pitta had just 1 catch for 1 yard
for the 2010 season, whereas Dickson started a
few games when Todd Heap got injured and
had 11 catches on the season plus a TD. If
Dickson was drafted higher than Pitta, and also
played more meaningfully in 2010...why are we so
much higher on Pitta's prospects over Dickson?
Pitta vs. Dickson in
college
First, let's trace Dickson and Pitta back to
college. Pitta was a star receiving option
(along with Austin Collie) for BYU, and
in Pitta's best college season -- he had 83
catches, 1,083 yards and 6 TDs (as a Junior).
Pitta's output as a Junior are some of the top
single season numbers that we have seen a TE put
up in an individual season.
In his Senior season, Pitta posted 62
catches, 829 yards and 8 TDs. Pitta's 62
receptions in 2010 was the 3rd best among
incoming TEs...his 83 catch season would have
blown the 2010 class away. Pitta left BYU as the
all-time leader in receptions at 221. Pitta is
also BYU's top TE in history for career
receiving yards, and 2nd among all BYU TEs in
career TDs. Pitta is a sure-handed prototype
receiving TE for the NFL.
Dickson had a nice career at Oregon, but on
the receiving end...he was not close to Pitta's
totals. Pitta had more catches in his Junior
season, then Dickson did in his first 3 seasons
at Oregon. Dickson was no slouch, but Pitta
doubled up just about any output Dickson did in
an individual season and for their career
totals.
When we take style of offense (BYU is a heavy
pass offense) and strength of opponents into
consideration, Dickson closes the gap in our
on-field performance metrics. At minimum,
Dickson and Pitta were two of the top receiving
threats among TEs in the 2010 class. We would
give a nudge toward Pitta looking ahead for NFL
performance, especially for a PPR Fantasy
Football league, as we could see Pitta as a
60-80+ catch TE.
Pitta vs. Dickson
physically
The natural assumption is that Dickson is
bigger, and therefore, a better blocker. When
measured at the NFL Combine -- Pitta was
actually 2/10ths of an inch taller, and just 4
pounds lighter. Dickson measured with big hands,
but Pitta's were also 2/10ths of an inch bigger.
Dickson had an above-average bench press, but
Pitta posted the 4th best bench among the 2010
TE class. At minimum, Pitta is Dickson's equal
from a physical strength/size standpoint.
Dickson did run a faster 40-yard dash, a well
above-average (for a TE) 4.59...Pitta ran an
above average 4.68. Where Pitta pulls away from
Dickson on mobility, is that Pitta posted the
best agility metrics we have for the 2010 TE
class...an elite level of agility. The agility
measurements of Pitta are inline with the
following 5 TEs -- Kellen Winslow Jr,
Tony Scheffler, Aaron Hernandez,
Dustin Keller and Fendi Onobun (if
you don't know that name, hurry and buy our
draft guide!). Pitta rated more agile (but less
straight-line fast) than Vernon Davis. On the
other hand, Dickson has very limited/poor
agility, and that is going to limit his upside
as a top receiving TE.
Pitta 2011 Outlook
Pitta has all the makings of a superior TE.
He has decent speed with top agility. He is tall
at 6'4+ to be a red-zone/TD threat, and he rates
strong enough to be an above-average blocker.
All combined with the fact that he has been a
proven receiving weapon going back to college
career.
This is all not meant to slam Ed Dickson,
we like Dickson...it's just that we love Dennis
Pitta. Pitta was one of the highest rated TEs
we've run through our computer analysis for
incoming college TEs in the past 5+ years.
However, Dickson does create a problem for Pitta
for Fantasy Football -- Pitta has to beat him
out for main playing time on the Ravens...and
even if he did, Dickson would still be good
enough to warrant playing; it just won't be
Pitta's job exclusively.
Pitta for Dynasty League
Drafts
Call me crazy, and we've mentioned this
before -- I wouldn't rule out Pitta in a deeper
Dynasty Rookie Draft for a PPR scoring system
league, as a late 6th or 7th-Round draft
pick...I think he has that kind of potential for
2011 and beyond. If Dickson was not present on
the roster, I would definitely draft Pitta in a
2011 Dynasty Rookie Draft (if he was available).
Worse case, keep Pitta on your radar
screen...and do not fall for the Heap release as
the clear path for Dickson. Even if Dickson is
the starter, Pitta is going to chew into his
stats/playing time.
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