Two teams appear to be heading in opposite
directions, long-term, based on today's
personnel activity. One team is taking a smart,
meticulous approach going back to the NFL Draft
-- the Washington Redskins. Another team
is making some of the most befuddling personnel
decisions and draft picks for going on 2 years
now -- the Pete Carroll era Seattle
Seahawks.
Washington Redskins
"Master Plan"
What I think the Redskins are doing, is
"tanking" the 2011 season and setting up their
business plan for 2012 and beyond. Even if they
are not tanking 2011, their recent signings of
veteran WRs is a potentially brilliant plan to
help develop the great haul of rookie WRs they
just drafted in April (Leonard Hankerson,
Aldrick Robinson, and Niles Paul).
We have Hankerson as the #1 rated WR in this
2011 WR class, and Robinson is among our top
rated among the smaller/possession WRs.
The signings of Santana Moss, Donte
Stallworth, Brandon Stokely and the
trade for Jabar Gaffney gives Washington
a very experienced/talented WR group for about a
year...enough time for Hankerson and Robinson to
emerge in 2012. We all applaud (for example) the
Tennessee Titans or Minnesota Vikings for
bringing in a stop-gap QB to develop their
rookie QBs...so why do we not think that would
be a brilliant thing to do with incoming WRs (or
any other position). I think that is exactly
what the Redskins are doing...and that's
long-term planning, like what a real, smart,
secure in its concept, business would do.
Whether it works or not, we'll see...but it has
to be better than flinging huge money around to
over-hyped Free Agents (their previous business
plan).
The signing of Santana Moss for less
time and less money, than signing an
expensive/troubled Santonio Holmes may
have been the single shrewdest maneuver of this
2011 signing period. I was thinking the Jets
might have been baiting the Redskins to sign
Holmes, and then they swarm into sign Moss in
his place...however, it was the Redskins that
were the "smart" ones. Throwing big money at
"small WRs" is a terrible NFL business decision,
given how available the commodity
is...especially since the QB has everything to
do with their success. Antwaan Randle-El,
Deion Branch...remember the consternation
over the "loss" of those key WRs to the Steelers
and Pats, ask Washington and Seattle how that
worked out? Even Wes Welker -- not overly
valuable. When Welker went down in 2009 for a
few games, a former college QB who never played
WR in his life (Julian Edelman), stepped in as a
rookie in Week-2 and virtually put up the same
exact stats and targets as Welker. Good/talented
"small WRs" (shorter than 6'2, less than 205
pounds) are found all over, talented big WRs are
much rarer, important commodity.
I'm lavishing a ton of praise on the
Redskins, but I am keenly aware that John
Beck and Rex Grossman would
theoretically negate all the "smart" personnel
decision accolades. However, it's not
unreasonable for the Redskins to pass on all the
2011 overrated incoming rookie QBs (not just my
opinion that this is a bad 2011 QB class, many
others have echoed the same), and dump
Donovan McNabb while he still has value,
plus not trading for possible elite QB Kevin
Kolb (Eagles won't trade him intra-division,
like McNabb)...all that QB-avoidance by the
Redskins is not unreasonable; if the goal is to
get the next franchise all-everything QB in
Andrew Luck in 2012. In order to get Luck,
you need to be "bad" in 2011. The Redskins
cannot win it all in 2011, and if you admit that
reality internally...then you can also
conceptualize that you could secure possible
greatness for your franchise for the next decade
plus by accelerating the 2011 losses to the
point that you can get Luck.
This is just a half-baked theory on
"tanking", not sure any team would or could, but
somehow I have to get my mind wrapped around
John Beck and Rex Grossman
decision-making...
A "bad" Redskins team
impact for 2011 Fantasy Football
If the Redskins stick with the John Beck
plan, combined with the experienced WR group
brought in...their will be several 2011 Fantasy
Football reverberations:
-
Hankerson, A. Robinson, Paul...all will see
little/no targets in 2011
-
Moss, Gaffney, and Chris Cooley's
Fantasy Football stock plummets on the
horrible offensive output outlook
-
The Redskins kicker is worthless on the bad
Offense
-
The Redskins Fantasy Football Team Defense,
who we like as a possible sleeper...fades
under the pressure that the Offense
perpetually leaves them in
-
The Redskins RB group may struggle hard as
defenses stack the line with no fear of
Grossman or Beck
The Potential Redskins
Upside for 2012+:
-
The Redskins veteran WRs prep the youth
movement without rushing them -- making
Hankerson and A. Robinson valuable Dynasty
Rookie Draft picks now...that won't pay
dividends until 2012+.
-
The Redskins 2011 rookie WRs get an
immediate long-term outlook upgrade for
2012-13...if they are playing with Andrew
Luck
Seattle Seahawks Panic
Plan
It may appear that Seattle might be following
the Andrew Luck acquisition plan too,
however I think their recent few days of
activity is just more questionable personnel
moves in a string of odd moves -- it's Seahawk
"standard operating procedure". Any team that
does all their due-diligence, and then decides
to invest in a Tavaris Jackson...that team is
not just making one bad singular/isolated
personnel move...they are a bad decision making
team/business, and there will be more bad
decisions to follow.
Laying out a ton of money for Sidney Rice,
a WR who has had about 8-9 good/great games in a
4-year, 45 game career...is quite simply --
amazing. Why would Seattle need another
bigger/taller WR, if they already have Mike
Williams in that role. If they didn't
believe in Williams, why did they pay him a
bunch last year? Are the Seahawks really a
Sidney Rice away from the Super Bowl?
Would that money be better spent on a QB, or an
Offensive Line, or a Defense? The one thing
Seattle has is a bunch of respectable WRs. They
were "snookered" in the past on Deion Branch...and
it just happened again potentially in the form
of Sidney Rice. Rice is solid, as was
Branch...but are they really worth the money
spent? If Rice is an elite big-WR...who is going
to throw it to him? Maybe Brett Favre is headed
west in 2012?
Running off Matt Hasselbeck is fine,
but not to bring in Tavaris Jackson.
Bringing in Jackson, trading huge for Charlie
Whitehurst...and being snubbed by Matt
Leinart (how low is that?)...it all means
that Seattle is not likely in the Kevin Kolb,
etc hunt...if they are, why would they spend
money on Tavaris Jackson (why would anyone under
any circumstance)? The NFL is a QB-led business,
and Seattle is a million miles away from having
an elite QB...really poor business planning for
right now, and for later.
A bizarre Seahawks
business approach, and it's Fantasy Football
impact:
Our computer system did have Mike Williams/SEA
as a top WR for Fantasy Football 2011...but now
the addition of Sidney Rice likely not
only slices into Williams statistical output in
2011, but mutes Rice's potential 2011 output as
well. People are going to get all excited about
Rice in Seattle for the moment -- if you have
him right now for Fantasy Football, trade him
ASAP. Mike Williams is as good/better of
a WR as Rice...and no matter who has more
talent, neither has an elite QB throwing to
them.
If the Arizona Cardinals acquire Kevin
Kolb -- Seattle begins 2011 facing the 49ers
and Steelers on the road, followed by Cardinals
(w/ Kolb), Falcons, Giants before a Week-6 Bye.
If Seattle flops to (1-4) or (0-5) to start
2011...this whole Seattle-scene for Fantasy
Football 2011 is going to be a total mess. We
are downgrading all things Seattle for Fantasy
Football 2011 based on the latest events.
*Should Seattle acquire Kevin Kolb or
Carson Palmer, I take this all back...but still
wonder why they signed Tavaris Jackson
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