*For those not familiar with Dynasty League
Rules -- it is a Fantasy Football game that is
more similar to owning a real NFL team, as the
team owners are allowed to keep a set amount (or
all) of their players from one year to the next
(not like traditional Fantasy Football where all
the players go back in the pool to start each
new season). Dynasty Leagues also have a Rookie
Draft of the incoming NFL rookies (usually in
May/June/July), held similarly like the NFL
Draft, in which they then draft/retain those
rookie players rights for the upcoming season.
This article is with a Dynasty League slant,
but is likely of interest for anyone curious
about the incoming rookies.
There are a ton of variations of Dynasty
Leagues/rules, but when I set up my "usual"
Rookie Draft Board for a Dynasty League, I look
at it from the following angles:
-
I am looking for more
superstar-type returns -- I
would rather swing and miss...looking for a
Home Run, then hit a bunch of singles and
doubles. Mediocre players are available all
over, but I want a potential future star;
and I'm willing to "whiff" along the way...I
know it is all part of the NFL/FF/Dynasty
draft game.
-
Issues on early play potential with the
current depth chart of the NFL team the RB
was drafted onto is a key factor -- our
computer analysis may love a players skill
set...but if he isn't likely to play this
year (or in 2 or 3 years...) because of the
talent ahead of him, then maybe we're not as
likely to take our "best" rated player if
the situation isn't favorable. It just
depends upon all the roster circumstances.
-
This is based on what we know/speculate
in May 2011...in June, July, August, etc we
could have radical changes. Especially based
upon where the undrafted rookies sign.
I'm going to make this Draft Board based on
having the right to keep anyone on my roster
from one year to the next, but I will also note
1-2 year future outlook for those Fantasy GM's
who have limitations on how many players can be
kept under wraps from one season to the next.
We are starting this series of
articles/research
with our WRs rated #21-34
overall, and we will be releasing the next
article containing the next group of 10 rated WRs (moving from #34 to #1) every
couple days over the next week.
2011 DYNASTY LEAGUE
DRAFT BOARD = WRs
(#1-10)
#1 = Leonard Hankerson, Washington
Redskins -- 3rd Round Pick (Miami, Fla)...Hankerson
is our top statistically rated "Big WR" in the
2011 rookie WR class. Hankerson measures better
than A.J. Green in almost every way, and he also
out-produced Julio Jones "by a mile" in college.
Hankerson has giant hand measurements, which
will serve him well in the NFL...and you can see
some of why hand-size is a weapon if you check
out scouting tape or YouTube highlight clips of
Hankerson in action. Our numbers were telling us
something very good on Hankerson, and then I
watched the Senior Bowl and was completely sold.
Every QB that came into the Senior Bowl was
blindly looking for Hankerson on every play, and
Hankerson at times looked like a man among boys.
Hankerson may need a year to bulk up physically
before he can make an elite impact, as he had a
less than desired bench press at the NFL
Combine. Washington needs a #1 type WR, and I
think they got one...now they just need a QB to
throw it to him.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = a little smaller
version of Hakeem Nicks
*See our full detailed analysis in Hankerson
here =
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of WR
Leonard Hankerson, the Best "Big WR" Available
in the NFL Draft...and possibly the next Hakeem
Nicks - Fantasy Football 2011
#2 = Torrey Smith, Baltimore
Ravens -- 2nd Round Pick (Maryland)...Our
highest rated WR of the 2011 class, but comes
with a dilemma. He is our highest rated WR if
used as a slot/possession type WR. If he is
looked at as a "big WR," an over-the-top/fight
the CB for the ball/red-zone WR...he may not do
well there (Smith has small hands, is under
6'1). As a possession/underneath type WR, using
his speed an athleticism in the open field (a la
a Greg Jennings) -- Smith could be a star.
This dichotomy of usage would not be an issue
except for the fact that Smith was drafted by
the Ravens, and the Ravens have no "big target"
WR like Smith...the temptation could be to make
him that kind of "big-WR", and he could struggle
with that role. As a slot-type WR like an Anquan
Boldin, with Smith's huge speed, agility,
vertical, strength metrics...he could be a
superstar. Smith has a great situation with the
Ravens, as there is a huge void for an athletic
difference-making WR for Flacco. We absolutely
love Smith, but are completely afraid he could
be used the "wrong" way (to us)...it's something
to keep an eye on in the preseason.
If you hear the Ravens 2011 draft pick Tyrod
Taylor (Va Tech QB) has agreed to workout as a
WR, then Smith might have some depth
chart/target-stealing competition to worry
about.. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH =
Greg Jennings/Jeremy Maclin
*For more detail on Torrey Smith, please read
our full length research --
NFL Draft 2011: Statistical Analysis of WR
Torrey Smith - Fantasy Football 2011
#3 = Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
-- 1st Round Pick (Alabama)...I cannot
reconcile Julio Jones's underwhelming 15 TDs in
40 career games at Alabama, compared to his
off-the-charts physical measurables from the NFL
Combine. Physically, Jones is a "junior version"
of Calvin Johnson...only Calvin Johnson had 15
TDs in his final year of college, where Jones
took a 40-game career to produce 15 TDs. If
Julio Jones is so dominant, why didn't he
dominate (statistically) in college? The
physical measurements are too appealing to
ignore, but on paper, there is a risk -- as
Jones statistical resume' is not similar to most
other current NFL elite WRs.. The current elite
WRs tended to dominate in college statistically
and also had amazing physical measurements;
Jones is only half the equation (he was solid,
not dominant on the field). I would draft Julio
Jones, and then trade him on the hype in a
Dynasty League if his value reached a frenzy
peak with someone.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Javon Walker
For more detailed research on Julio Jones,
see our full-length research articles --
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of WR
Julio Jones, does "Upside" Trump Actual
Performance? - Fantasy Football 2011 AND
NFL Draft 2011 - Julio Jones, Alabama and
A.J. Green, Georgia - Fantasy Football 2011
#4 = Greg Little, Cleveland Browns
-- 2nd Round Pick (UNC)...Little is worth
the gamble, but is not a "sure thing" prospect.
For every positive sign, there is a negative
one. On the positive, Little is a monster size
-- a former power RB turned WR, in the mold of
Hakeem Nicks. Little is physically big and
strong, and translates as nearly impossible to
cover; or tackle. Little is very athletic with
one exception -- a small hand-size. On the
negative, Little was suspended for last season
for improper conduct in college. Little exhibits
some trouble-maker qualities, and questionable
work-ethic. Little is worthy of consideration,
but comes with off-the-field risk. The situation
in Cleveland is perfect, as there is no
top-flight WRs to provide a road-block to
playing time (although we do like Brian
Robiskie).
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = lesser versions
of Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Marshall
For more detail on Little, please see --
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of WR
Jonathan Baldwin, Terrence Toliver and Greg
Little - Fantasy Football 2011
#5 = Kealoha Pilares, Carolina
Panthers -- 5th Round Pick (Hawaii)...Pilares
is very highly rated in our system, tremendous
speed, agility, vertical leap. A former DB and
RB turned WR with huge stats at Hawaii in 2010
with 88 rec, 1,306 yards, and 15 TDs (great
stats despite the fact that he missed a few
games, and great even relative to the fact that
Hawaii threw a ton). Pilares was shunned for
having torn his PCL late last season, however
Pilares rehabbed and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at
his pro-day and had a huge vertical measurement.
Pilares is a track & field star on top of
everything else, plus gives you a solid frame at
5'10, 200 pounds. Pilares could be the best
possession/slot/"small WR" in this class. The
only detraction right now for us is him landing
on a team with inexperienced/sketchy QBs.
Pilares has a huge upside, and may thrive even
with rookie QBs as he is a nice "drop it off
quick and let him go" type of WR. Pilares has a
lot of Percy Harvin in him. This is definitely a
pick worth making for Dynasty Leagues.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Percy
Harvin/Pierre Garcon
*See more on Pilares with our full length
research --
NFL Draft 2011 - WR Kealoha Pilares, the
Mega-Sleeper "Small WR" Prospect in the 2011 NFL
Draft - Fantasy Football 2011
See
additional Fantasy Football research articles
and commentary (almost daily) on our blog,
recent articles released:
-
Caleb King, the recently declared for the
NFL supplemental draft RB =
Caleb King Declares for the NFL
Supplemental Draft, Should We Care for
Fantasy Football? | Fantasy Football Metrics
– RC Fischer Blog
-
Billy Cundiff, Ravens Kicker interesting
data (hopefully, cut me some slack...it's a
kicker!) =
Please DO NOT draft Billy Cundiff to
begin Fantasy Football 2011 | Fantasy
Football Metrics – RC Fischer Blog
-
Da'Rel Scott, NY Giants 2011 drafted
rookie RB =
Taking a 2nd Look at the Giants RB Da’Rel
Scott for Fantasy Football/Dynasty Drafts |
Fantasy Football Metrics – RC Fischer Blog
#6 = Aldrick Robinson, Washington
Redskins -- 6th Round Pick (SMU)...A
contender to be the best "small WR" of the 2011
class. Robinson is incredibly fast (4.35
40-yard) and also very agile, with a big
vertical leap...he is an amazing athlete.
Robinson played in a high-octane offense at SMU
and had huge stats last year (65 rec, 1,301
yards, 14 TDs), the stats were great even within
the context of the high pass attempt offense he
played in. We love Robinson, and he is in a
pretty good spot with Washington. Santana Moss
has another year or two before Robinson would
take over full duty. The only negative on
Robinson is that he is small at 184 pounds, but
had an above-average bench press...so he grades
with a sturdy frame physically.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = a Devin Hester
with better hands
#7 = Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville
Jaguars -- 4th Round Pick (Mt. Union)...We
really like Cecil Shorts, but some cold water
got thrown on that when he was selected by
Jacksonville. Shorts has great speed and elite
agility, and was an elite producer at Mt. Union
college last year. Shorts is very athletic, and
physically strong/sturdy...he is the
quintessential possession/slot/"small WR." The
problem is that Jags teammate Mike Thomas is
somewhat of a clone of Cecil Shorts, but Thomas
has the experience advantage. The current
outlook for Shorts is muddy with Thomas there,
and playing on a team that doesn't throw
often/well (however, this year's difficulty of
schedule should flush the current regime by
years end). We really like Shorts future, worthy
of a draft & hold in a Dynasty League.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = fellow Mt. Union
alum, Pierre Garcon (seems cheesy, but it's
true) and Greg Jennings
#8 = Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City
Chiefs -- 1st Round Pick (Pittsburgh)...There
are a lot of physical measurables in common with
Baldwin and Julio Jones, the biggest difference
being that Jones is faster and much more agile
-- the other key physical items (bench press,
hand size, vertical) lean toward Baldwin.
Baldwin has something else in common with Julio
Jones -- a disappointing on-field performance
(given their elite physical abilities). Both
Jones and Baldwin should have destroyed opposing
defenses, yet both Jones and Baldwin combined
for just 12 TDs between them last year (Leonard
Hankerson had 13 TDs all by himself in playing
in an atrocious passing game). There is a real
risk that Baldwin is another diva WR, skating by
on the physical prowess and does not hone his
craft. The NFL history books are littered with
big upside WRs, who never did anything in the
NFL...Baldwin may be in that group. I wouldn't
expect an instant impact from Baldwin this year,
as the Chiefs have a devastating
schedule...especially in the 2nd half. He is
worth a look based on the measurables, but I
wouldn't over-invest or really plan on taking
him where he will likely be snatched up at. BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH
= Marques Colston or Aaron Kelly
*For more detail on Baldwin, please read our
full length research --
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of WR
Jonathan Baldwin, Terrence Toliver and Greg
Little - Fantasy Football 2011
#9 = Ronald Johnson, San Francisco
49ers -- 6th Round Pick (USC)...A potential
Fantasy Football steal for 2011 and beyond.
Johnson has a lot of intriguing physical
measurables (including top notch agility
metrics) and had respectable statistical output
at USC. Johnson is a very solid NFL prospect,
and lands in a great situation in San
Francisco...a new coach, West Coast Offense, and
a team with a very lackluster WR depth chart. We
are high on Johnson's potential impact early,
and the possibility of being a long term
good/very good NFL WR.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Steve Smith
(CAR)
#10 = Edmond Gates, Miami Dolphins
-- 4th Round Pick (Abilene Christian)...Gates
looks like Miami teammate Davone Bess
physically, only all of his skills measure much
better...Gates is extremely fast (4.31 40-yard)
with great agility and a big vertical (40").
Gates was a very good performer in college, and
all signs point to him as a solid pro prospect.
The issue ahead for Gates is, Davone Bess is
occupying the same position and has more
experience...so it may take 2-3 seasons before
Gates gets heavy in the rotation. We also have
to factor in the Dolphins shaky QB situation.
Gates on another team may get us more excited,
but with Miami there appears to be a few
road-blocks to success. Gates has the kind of
talent/resume' to warrant a draft & hold in a
Dynasty League, especially on the upside that he
just outplays Bess and grabs the reigns quicker
than expected.
BEST COLLEGE DATA MATCH = Santana Moss
Our top statistically rated "big WRs"
(6'2+, or 210+, red-zone threats)...
-
2011 = Leonard
Hankerson @ 0.981
-
2010 = Danario
Alexander @ 1.104
-
2009 = Hakeem
Nicks @ 1.483
-
2008 = James
Hardy @ 0.649
-
2007 = Calvin
Johnson @ 1.500
-
2006 = Miles
Austin @ 1.216
-
2005 = Vincent
Jackson @ 1.659
Our top
statistically rated "small WRs" (under 6'2, and
under 210, slot/possession WRs)...
-
2011 = Torrey
Smith @ 1.160
-
2010 = Donald
Jones @ 0.957
-
2009 = Percy
Harvin @ 1.276
-
2008 = Arman
Shields @ 1.162 (injured before he stepped
foot on an NFL field)
-
2007 = Steve
Smith (USC) @ 1.161
-
2006 = Greg
Jennings @ 1.058
-
2005 = Courtney
Roby @ 0.923
Comments on
our 2011 Top-10 WRs for Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Last year we had
two undrafted WRs rate the highest according to
our computer system, this season the computer
skips past the 1st-Round NFL selected WRs
(Green, Jones) and points out a 2nd (Smith) and
3rd (Hankerson) round WR as this year's highest
rated.
This is a great
year for the "small WR," as Torrey Smith,
Kealoha Pilares and Aldrick Robinson
really jump out of our statistical analysis.
However, the "small WRs" have not necessarily
been the highest Fantasy Football producers...as
they are likely to score less TDs than the
taller/red-zone WRs. We love Pilares, but the
Carolina situation is a shaky one at QB.
The "big WR" group
all scored lower than we like to see, to us
there is not a "for sure" elite "big WR" for the
taking. Julio Jones is completely
intriguing on the physical measurables. I can't
fault anyone for making Jones a top-WR Dynasty
rookie pick...he is a rare "species."
If I were in need
of bulking up the WR depth on my Dynasty roster,
I would definitely look to trade back out of the
high 1st-Round and fade to the late-1st or
early-2nd to target Torrey Smith, Greg Little
and/or Leonard Hankerson. Actually, you
might be better to draft a Jones or A.J.
Green and sell them for peak value before
they set foot on an NFL field.
All of our top-10
WRs for 2011 are likely on everyone else's
Dynasty Rookie draft board, with the exception
of Ronald Johnson and maybe Aldrick
Robinson. I see Kealoha Pilares
moving into being selected in the 4th-Round of
Dynasty Rookie drafts of late...in others, he is
available 6th or 7th Round; or not taken at all.
The 2011 rookie WR
class does not likely possess a Calvin
Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks type
of talent. There are no "big WRs" in this class
(like Calvin, Fitz, Nicks) who completely
dominated on the field and measured
off-the-charts in physical tests and
measurements. There is a lot of Fantasy Football
"risk" here with this 2011 WR class. The
smarter/safer money is on Torrey Smith
(teamed with Flacco), but I can find other
productive "small WRs" if I miss out on Smith.
Leonard Hankerson and Greg Little
are the WRs that I'm most intrigued with their
upside...I just hate their current QB/offense
situation (as of today).
By
R.C. Fischer
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