Don't ask me why, but I spend much of free
time thinking about statistical theories and
number relationships. I should be listening to
the instructions my wife is giving me about what
kid needs to go where by what time, or enjoying
a good book or movie, or just enjoying the
moment. Occasionally, I will. However, I have a
problem (first step towards recovery...check).
The problem is -- I will be minding my own
business, and something/someone interrupts me.
It's like on the TV show Seinfeld. I'm in a
"figurative" Jerry's apartment in my own mind,
and then my happy-go-lucky existence is suddenly
intruded upon by a wildly entering, non-knocking
thought/concept/idea in the form of Cosmo Kramer
sliding into, and disrupting, my "happy-place".
I was going about my day in peace and
tranquility, but suddenly Kramer comes sliding
in to borrow something or to discuss the merits
of a coffee-table book about coffee tables.
Sometimes the interrupting idea merits some
consideration, like Kramer's theory on "why not
Mustard and Ketchup in the same bottle?" Other
times the idea makes practical sense, but is
totally ridiculous in reality -- like Kramer's
(and Frank's) "the Bro"/"Manssier" concept.
I was minding my own business at my son's
Lacrosse practice the other day, and with no
warning...a Kramer-idea for Fantasy Football came bum-rushing into my
mind -- "how is it even possible for the Colts
to have 3 WRs rated among the top-30 WRs for
Fantasy Football, how is there even room for
that possibility?" There are 32 teams in the
NFL, most teams have one WR in the top-30, and
obviously, some teams have none...and yet the
Colts have three?
You might think there is an easy answer to
this question, "Well, the Colts throw the ball
so much...of course there is room for that level
of Fantasy Football success for multiple WRs..."
I thought the same thing, while watching my son
get hit over the head with a lacrosse stick.
Then this thought occurred (after I knew my son
was OK of course), the Rams/Sam Bradford threw
the ball a ton in 2010 too, and they don't have
ANY clear-cut WRs in a Fantasy Football top-30 (Mark
Clayton was on-pace early, but then was lost
to injury).
The Texans threw the ball ton in 2009, and they
didn't have 3...or even 2 WRs finish in the
top-30 for Fantasy scoring in 2009. How can the
Colts do it, and also have top TE receiving
production as well?
Suddenly, the Colts WR productivity situation
for Fantasy Football was consuming me. The idea
was consuming me in a similar way to figuring
out the economics of how many cans and bottles
it would take to make fiscal sense to take them
all to Michigan to profit from the extravagant
.10-cent deposit refund. How can so many WRs
coexist and thrive on one team for Fantasy
Football, when no other team is even close to
that statistical possibility?
Before we delve into the numbers, a few
things to keep in mind:
-
In most all of our Fantasy Football research
and analysis, we look at Games 1-15 only
(unless otherwise noted). The final game in
any season is typically a non-indicator of
true performance...as players are sitting
out, playing half games, playing against
other teams who are playing all their
backups, etc -- and we are doing that here.
-
We consider fractional games played
where we feel it is appropriate. Games
played where a player (like Austin Collie,
and his concussions) is injured, and misses
the 2nd half (for example)...it doesn't make
sense to look at his stats in the prism of a
full game played, in that particular game.
-
Everything for this article surrounds a
top-30 WR "marker," whether discussing
actual results or preseason opinion
rankings. We're using "30" as that's what
hit me initially...and most Fantasy leagues are 12-teams,
24 WRs starting in a given week, or with a
flex position up to 30 WRs playing each week
(each league obviously can vary).
2011 Preseason Fantasy
Football Draft Rankings of Colts WRs (currently
through July 2011)
Looking at our latest compilations of Fantasy
Football Draft data that we have for "ADP"
(Average Draft Position) in actual drafts or
mock drafts, the 3 Colts WRs are currently
trending among the ADP top-30 WRs for 2011
preseason (traditional scoring 12-team league,
PPR leagues are almost identical trends as
well):
-
#8 overall WR
ADP = Reggie Wayne
-
#25 overall WR
ADP = Austin Collie
-
#29 overall WR
ADP = Pierre Garcon
No other team can boast such a lofty honor as
3 WRs among the top-30 selected WRs for Fantasy
Football. Only three NFL teams can boast
having TWO of their WRs in the top-30 ADP among Fantasy
Football WRs:
No NFL team has a trio of WRs that are as
highly regarded as Wayne, Collie and Garcon.
Which really started to bug me -- why is this the
case? Actually before I asked why, my first
thought was -- I have to see how this is even possible? Can three
WRs from the team actually coexist while
producing top-30 Fantasy Football scoring
output?
Is it because the Colts
throw more than everyone else?
No doubt the Colts throw a lot, but that's
not the exclusive/decisive reason...or the
Saints, the Lions, or Broncos could boast the
same; but none of those teams have three top-30
Fantasy Football WRs.
2010 Passing Attempts per game (Weeks
1-16, no Week-17) for QBs with over 8 games
played:
- 42.6 = P.Manning, IND
- 41.9 = S. Hill, DET
- 41.3 = D. Brees, NO
- 38.3 = Orton, DEN
- 36.8 = Schaub, HOU
Is it even true that 3
WRs from the same team can be in the top-30 for
Fantasy Football?
The first thing I had to do is look to see if
it is actually true -- did the 3 Indianapolis
Colts WRs actually all simultaneously produce
top-30 Fantasy Football numbers in 2010? If you
were to look at the overall raw totals, the
answer is no (barely). The problem with looking
at just the raw totals is -- Austin Collie
missed several full and partial games with
injuries/concussions. Pierre Garcon
missed a few games with injury as well. In just
purely raw Fantasy Football scoring point totals, it
was close (keep in mind we are not considering
Game-16/Week-17 stats):
- Reggie Wayne was ranked 10th overall
among Fantasy Football WRs in scoring
- Austin Collie was ranked 30th overall
- Pierre Garcon was ranked 33rd overall
Only the New Orleans Saints were close to
the same realm as the Colts WRs in Fantasy
Football productivity in 2010 (in our scoring
tallies for 2010, no Week-17). The Saints had
Marques Colston (#16), Lance Moore (#26), Robert
Meachem (#42). However, the Colts best producing
WR (Wayne) is way ahead of the Saints best
(Colston), and
the Colts 3rd best WR (Garcon) is well ahead of
the Saints 3rd best (Meachem). What the 3 Colts WRs
are able to produce is amazing.
The 2010 injuries made me wonder something
else -- with all the injuries, maybe only two
Colts WRs produce at any given time...and maybe
when all three are playing together, only Wayne
succeeds and Collie and Garcon take a backseat?
Would these Colts WRs all cannibalize each other when
playing together? When all 3 Colts WRs are
playing together, do all 3 (or 2 of 3) become
mediocre for Fantasy Football?
What is the
productivity when all 3 Colts WRs play at the
same time?...the story takes a twist...
It was driving me
crazy -- "how can three WRs all
playing at the same time, be top Fantasy
Football producers?". Logic would dictate that
someone would take a major back seat in any WR trio
for Fantasy Football. It reminded me of the 2010
New York Giants higher rated WR
trio (Nicks, Smith, Manningham), but the Giants WR-trio doesn't really pan
out statistically either...they do cannibalize
to a degree.
I used Mario Manningham for Fantasy Football on occasion last year,
but only when Steve Smith went down. Manningham
is mostly boring for Fantasy Football when
Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are in the lineup
-- from Weeks 1-9 (pre Smith injury), Manningham
was targeted only 4.5 times per game and scored
just 7.1
Fantasy PPG (10.2 PPR). When Smith went out,
Manningham jumped up to a robust 7.0 targets per
game and 10.5 Fantasy PPG (15.0 PPR). Using my
Manningham mindset, I was sure when all three
Colts WRs played together last season, someone's
stats must have suffered...but they really
didn't.
Statistical output for the Colts big trio
of WRs, in the 5 times they all played together in
2010:
|
2010 Colts WR |
Rec per game |
Yds per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
FF PPG |
FF PPR PPG |
|
Collie |
7.0 |
75.4 |
0.8 |
8.4 |
12.3 |
19.3 |
|
Garcon |
4.8 |
68.2 |
0.2 |
9.0 |
8.0 |
12.8 |
|
Wayne |
6.4 |
77.2 |
0.4 |
10.0 |
10.1 |
16.5 |
Not that Garcon was explosive when the trio
played together, but he still maintained a heavy
amount of targeting from Peyton Manning and a
8.0 Fantasy PPG (12.8 PPR PPG) which would place
him right within a top-30 output among WRs.
After looking at the output of the three
Colts WRs when playing together, I see that they can
co-exist statistically for Fantasy Football.
Perhaps that is only interesting to me...but as is usually the case,
researching one thing led to "discovering"
something else unintended.
Our computers picked up on it when our
formulas rated
Austin Collie ahead of Reggie Wayne
for Fantasy Football 2011 in our current Draft
Guide (available now!). What our computers pulled, could be the new
Colts reality -- the 2011+ reality might now be
that Austin Collie is the top Fantasy
Football WR for the
Indianapolis Colts, not Reggie Wayne. That's not a comment on
whether Collie is a better WR in each of their
primes...or even better in an NFL game today. This has nothing
to do with "who's better", it has to do with
(for whatever reason) a statistical shift to
Collie by the Colts/Peyton Manning. If
you look at the data box above again, you will see
that when all 3 Colts WRs played together in 2010 -- it
was Collie who had the most catches, the most
TDs (by double), and the highest Fantasy
Football scoring per game average for both PPR
and Traditional scoring leagues.
There could be a million reasons why...Wayne
may draw better coverage, maybe even
Garcon somehow draws coverage away too, I
wondered that myself. However, Garcon did miss 3
games in 2010 -- and when it was down to Collie
and Wayne as the primary WRs to cover by
opposing defenses; Collie
held his own.
The 2010 Collie/Wayne output with Pierre
Garcon out:
|
2010 Colts WR |
Rec per game |
Yds per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
FF PPG |
FF PPR PPG |
|
Collie |
7.0 |
78.3 |
1.3 |
9.0 |
15.8 |
22.8 |
Garcon |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Wayne |
8.7 |
119.0 |
0.3 |
11.7 |
13.9 |
22.6 |
Wayne was great in the 3-game stretch, and
more heavily targeted...yet Collie was more
Fantasy Football productive. Collie quadrupled Wayne's TD
output when it was the two of them minus Garcon. Three
games is not a great sample size, I know.
However take these 3 games and mix them with the
above 5 games when all 3 played together...and
it's a statistical fact that Collie was the much
better Fantasy Football WR over Wayne in 2010.
Outside of those 8 games noted above, Collie was gone (not
counting the Week-9 game he played for a moment
before leaving with injury) with injuries. It was those
"other" non-Collie games that Reggie
Wayne re-established himself as the top Colts
Fantasy Football WR.
Colts WR output in games where Austin
Collie was out:
|
2010 Colts WR |
Rec per game |
Yds per game |
TDs per game |
Targets per game |
FF PPG |
FF PPR PPG |
|
B White |
4.0 |
36.0 |
0.4 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
10.0 |
|
Garcon |
5.1 |
55.1 |
0.3 |
8.1 |
7.2 |
12.4 |
|
Wayne |
6.3 |
77.7 |
0.3 |
11.6 |
9.5 |
15.8 |
Even Blair White "out-TD'd" Wayne when White
received heavier reps. Still, Wayne was the much
better Fantasy Football play in 2010 when Collie was out.
|
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|
Austin Collie should be
rated ahead of Reggie Wayne for Fantasy Football
2011!
Just like the sun rises every morning, so
will Reggie Wayne be rated as a top-10 WR for
Fantasy Football...sometimes a top-5. It's an
automatic thought process, never to be
questioned...
Wayne was #5 in overall scoring among WRs in
raw Fantasy scoring totals in 2010, but when broken down
to a PPG-basis; then Wayne was only the 14th
best Fantasy Football WR (10th in PPR). If you
look at Wayne's Fantasy scoring only when he is
playing with the trio of he, Collie and
Garcon...Wayne starts to fade toward a top 15-20+
Fantasy WR on a PPG-basis.
Reggie Wayne's productivity, understandably,
is fading a bit. It's understandable because
Wayne will be 33 years old this upcoming season,
and a "changing of the guard" is inevitable in
any profession. On the other hand, Austin Collie
will be 26 years old and is in his peak
years...and is already proving he is a top NFL
WR.
Your choice in 2011 will be = use a
2nd or early 3rd-Round Fantasy Football draft pick on an aging, fading
Reggie
Wayne...or take the WR in his prime who has
already proven he can outscore Wayne when on the
field at the same time; in the form
of Austin Collie. As a bonus, Collie will likely be
available 2-3 rounds later in the 2011 Fantasy
Football Draft.
If Peyton Manning isn't back from his
neck injury for 2011, disregard the above and
take none of the Colts WRs for Fantasy Football
2011...
*This article is not a slam on Reggie Wayne. I
admire Wayne, but this is strictly business.
Collie has proven he can outscore Wayne when
playing together, and is 7 years younger. If
you're afraid of Collie's concussions (and
that's reasonable to hesitate there), then pass on both...don't
overspend on Wayne.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
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