Trust me, this is not a bash Jahvid Best
hit-piece article. Our computer scouting formula
rated Best as an NFL good, potentially great RB
-- much like in the mold of a Reggie Bush.
This issue of concern on J. Best, like it is
with Bush, is that he is too small to take a
constant NFL beating. It's not a total knock,
but it does call into question J. Best's
potential as a feature RB...which is a
legitimate debate then on how one would value J.
Best in the upcoming 2011 Fantasy Football
Draft.
Someone with a heavily pro-J. Best opinion
might read the section above and wonder, "What
does he (me) know about anything anyway"...which
may be true, but don't take my word for it --
take the Detroit Lions word for it. The Lions
management did not maneuver a trade with
Minnesota to move up to take Illinois RB
Mikel Leshoure in the 2nd-Round of the 2011
NFL Draft just for fun. The Lions had plenty of
other football needs as well (side note -- we
had Leshoure as the highest RB in this past
Draft). By making the move to draft Leshoure,
the Lions management told you/me that they
realize the need for a pounding RB to offset
with J. Best...and that J. Best is not an
every-down RB, not even close. I will lay out a
statistical case on why I think they think that,
in a bit...
Obviously, the news of today that Lions
rookie RB 2nd-Round Draft pick Mikel Leshoure
tore his Achilles tendon and will miss the 2011
season is a Fantasy Football game-changer for
2011. People in Dynasty leagues, or who have
already conducted their traditional Fantasy
Draft, that own J. Best may think that fortune
has shone well upon them today -- the fear of a
split between J. Best and Leshoure is over,
leaving them the exclusive "feature" RB for the
Lions in 2011. Fortune has been bestowed upon J.
Best owners, but not in the way they think. I
think this Leshoure injury situation may create
a very small window of inflated J. Best value, a
value that you might want to consider acting
upon if you have a trade partner that is
guzzling the Jahvid Best Kool-Aid.
The quick math that many are going to do is
-- J. Best minus Leshoure equals Fantasy
Football gold. Some people aren't doing that
math at all. Many just simply have it in their
mind that in Jahvid Best -- they were
already sitting on a superstar Fantasy Football
RB, no doubt about it. I'd like to challenge
that notion (again, I think J. Best is a
talented football player -- just arguing a case
on valuation).
Fantasy Football A.D.D
syndrome...
It's a weird psychology that we get ourselves
into...like all the way back, many moons ago, in
the pre-season 2010 -- oh how we all drooled
about what a big year that would be had by CJ
Spiller, and/or Ryan Matthews, and/or
Jahvid Best...or even Dexter McCluster,
and/or Ben Tate, and/or Montario
Hardesty...(some went even deeper) and/or
Anthony Dixon, and/or Toby Gerhart.
There are some potentially great RBs just
mentioned...however, none of them did squat in
Fantasy Football/NFL in 2010. The bizarre
psychology is that most Fantasy players will not
even give them a learning curve...the calendar
has flipped, and many could hardly care less
about them now (definitely not the same passion
as this time last year). Folks are too busy
falling all over themselves for the next "shiny"
new toy -- Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams,
etc. The probable fact is, no one from the 2011
class is likely to do much this year either --
2010's RB class was a million times more loaded
with talent...give it time.
There is one RB that seems to have pushed
beyond the malaise many now have for the 2010 RB
class...and that "anointed one" is Jahvid
Best (even before the Leshoure injury). No
one RB from the 2010 class has garnered more
reader questions to me than Jahvid Best
over the last few months. People seemingly have
written off CJ Spiller, he's a virtual
ghost. Ryan Matthews has had a very loyal
set of Fantasy Football owners (including me),
and that group is starting to turn negative on
Matthews given him reporting to camp out of
shape (including me). Jahvid Best,
however, is causing many to have a paranoid
schizophrenia love affair with him. On one hand,
his entire body of work in 2010 was pretty
decent, especially if you play in a PPR league.
On the other hand, what really drives J. Best
owners "mad" with passion...virtually holding
them hostage -- the thoughts back to Week 1 & 2
of last season. Minus those 2 games, J.Best
destroyed more Fantasy Football weeks than he
aided.
Jahvid Best in Weeks 1
and 2 last year...fact or fantasy?
In Week-1, J. Best scored 2 TDs...forcing
owners who likely had him on their bench that
first week, to rush him into the Fantasy
starting lineup in Week-2. Great call, as J.
Best dropped a monster game with 17 carries for
78 yards, 2 rushing TDs...and 9 catches for 154
yards and another TD. You can do the math on how
many points that was in your league...no matter
your scoring system, it was incredible. The
following Week, J. Best did you wrong...a weak
game and a nagging toe injury, followed by
several more mediocre games. What could you do,
but chase after J. Best for weeks --
keeping him in the lineup, hoping for that Week
1-2 performance again? The chase was in
vain, as J. Best never really had a good Fantasy
game the rest of 2010. However, most people
remember that Week-2, and all those glorious
Fantasy points...and still remember it warmly
now, so warmly it may be clouding their
judgment.
The Week-2 game against Philly last year was
amazing...but it's what happened the other 14
games played that is of concern. I want to do
some "fuzzy math" to show you what we see. *I
know J. Best had an injured toe, but he did go
on to play...had a Bye-Week and missed a full
game and parts of others.
Jahvid Best's full season stats as they
really were in 2010:
Now the "fuzzy math" -- J. Best's 2010
season if you take away the Philly game in
Week-2
-
154 carries
-
477 yards rushing (36.6 per game)
-
3.1 yards per carry
-
401 yards receiving (30.8 per game)
-
878 yards total
-
3 TDs
-
49 receptions (3.8 per game)
-
8.0 FF PPG
-
11.8 FF PPR PPG
J. Best still had a nice season, but not a
top-20 Fantasy Football RB season. It's more
like a top 35-40 RB in traditional scoring PPG,
and top 25-30 RB in a PPR league
scoring...comparing PPG from last season. With a
huge, troubling red-flag level 3.2 yards per
carry on the season...or 3.1 on the
adjusted/minus-Philly view -- either way an
issue. I harp on the yards per carry issues
because when I watched the tape of J. Best in
the preseason, and I watched most of his
preseason carries...and I commented and wrote on
the fact that Best went down on contact very
easily (to me). J. Best was injured his final
year of college, and on & off in his rookie NFL
season. J. Best is 5'10, 199 pounds...and may be
a very fragile RB for the NFL. The Lions may be
more aware of that than any of us.
Additional Note -- J. Best ran up some huge
games his final year of college (2010), except
when he played better competition. J. Best had 3
games against Pac-10 teams with winning records
in 2010 (was injured and missed 3 final games of
2010, all winning record Pac-10 teams...and
missed the Bowl game).
-
3.4 yards per carry on 14 carries vs. USC
(in 2009, 2.3 yards per carry on 13 carries)
-
3.4 yards per carry on 16 carries vs. Oregon
-
3.2 yards per carry on 9 carries vs. Oregon
State
He did run for 5 TDs in a game vs. (3-9)
Minnesota, and posted 10+ yards per carry games
against Eastern Washington and (2-10) Washington
State.
The Next 48 Hours
Many Jahvid Best owners are basking in the
possibilities today, but I would maintain that
the Lions have not suddenly forgotten that they
have a "Best-issue"...they cannot go into the
2011 season (a season they think they can make
the playoffs in) relying on a full-season and/or
full-load carried by J. Best. Jahvid Best
is Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush,
and he will need to be teamed with a "power-RB".
Best has to split the carries to preserve his
health/usefulness as a business asset, he may be
used more as a passing weapon much more than as
a rusher.
If the Lions make a move, via trade or in the
next waiver period for a "power-RB" of
note...down goes J. Best's Fantasy Football
value a bit. Had the Leshoure injury happened
sooner, it might have been Ricky Williams
or a Michael Bush type RB
signing...which would have caused J. Best owners
to go back into schizoid paranoia again.
I don't advocate that Jahvid Best
"must go" and/or is a total dud for Fantasy
Football 2011. I would like to advance that J.
Best has had one phenomenal game in his NFL
career, and 14 mostly forgettable ones, and has
been injured for the past 2 years...and based on
that recent resume', don't go too crazy
over-valuing him. Instead, take advantage of
another Fantasy Football GM's lust and if the
right opportunity presents itself, maybe you
"trade up" and get a more stable feature
RB...instead of holding a 3rd-Down RB (Best) who
will not score a lot of TDs, as he won't get
short yardage carries because he's not
built/optimal for that. I think the "touch"
limitations, and productivity are a fear; but
even scarier is the durability issues.
It may be an opportunity. It may not. If it
is, you have maybe a 24-48 hour window before
the Lions do something to bring the J. Best
value back to earth. Take advantage now if you
have Jahvid Best doubts.
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