FULL DISCLOSURE -- I am not in love
with what I have seen from Alex Smith in the
NFL, and I do not like what I have seen
researching Colin Kaepernick from a deeper
crunch of the numbers...I am skeptical on both
of them from the standpoint of, "will they ever
become elite NFL QBs?" (a la Brady, Brees,
Manning, etc). Both of them may become mediocre
or good NFL QBs, we just don't see/project them
as NFL elite.
Of all the of the individual research reports
we did on the 2011 college QBs, the one QB that
I've received more reader mail defending or
taking the opposite opinion of our theory -- is
for Colin Kaepernick. *See original
article --
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of Colin
Kaepernick, 2011 NFL Draft Day Fool's Gold -
Fantasy Football 2011
The points that are mentioned most in the
opinion mail sent in has centered around
Colin Kaepernick's intangibles...some stuff
that sounds good and/or other stuff that can't
really be proven or in reality mean
little/nothing, like -- "the guy is just a
winner", "he has a big arm", "he's
incredibly big and mobile", "he's smart".
All of which may absolutely be true, the problem
for 49ers fans is...I could have, and most
everyone had, said the same thing about Alex
Smith in 2005.
Not only did the experts/non-experts say
nearly the same things about Colin Kaepernick
in 2011 as they did in 2005 about Alex Smith,
the 2 of them also essentially played in the
same type/strength of conference (Smith in the
Mountain West, Kaepernick in the WAC...they had
4 common opponents in their final year of play
-- UNLV, BYU, Utah State, and Colorado State).
Not only did the experts/non-experts say the
same type things about the 2 of them during
their draft year, and not only did the both
essentially play the same type/level of
competition, but both QBs in their final season
also each had very good completion percentages,
excellent overall TD/INT ratios, nearly 3,000
yards passing each and won almost all of their
games.
In fact, almost everything you will say/type
today that is pro-Colin Kaepernick, you
might have literally uttered from your own mouth
about Alex Smith 6 years ago; to the
day...
Let's look at what people have a tendency to
say about Colin Kaepernick as a prospect,
and see how much of it compares to Alex Smith
(circa 2005) as well.
Physically, almost
identical
Many are excited by how big and athletic
Colin Kaepernick is, which is great...but
Alex Smith is pretty similar physically to
Kaepernick
- Kaepernick measures in at a height of
6'4.5", Smith at 6'4.1"
- Kaepernick a 32.5" Vertical Jump
measurement, Smith a 32.0'
- Kaepernick a 9'7" Broad Jump, Smith with
a 9'5"
- Kaepernick 233 weighs pounds, Smith 217
pounds
"...But Kaepernick is so
big and so fast"
Ahhh, the search for the "Loch Ness
Monster", "Big Foot", etc continues
in the NFL Draft (cue the X-Files theme). Some
day folks are finally going to find that very
tall, very fast and mobile, incredibly accurate
passing, video game-esque QB...the QB that
redefines the position forever. I would like to
say that many are looking for the next Steve
Young, but in reality what many are
looking/hoping for is the next Joe
Montana-Michael Vick hybrid QB...a "mega-QB"
that has the best of both of those QBs rolled
into one. Colin Kaepernick is the latest
contender for that "hope" (along with Cam
Newton).
Despite the fact that most/all recent highly
mobile QBs have struggled and/or busted in the
NFL, and despite the fact that none of today's
truly elite NFL QBs have those 3 characteristics
(big, highly mobile, elite passer)
simultaneously -- we are still going to look for
it if it kills us; and we are going to value
that "holy trinity of QB characteristics" above
all other QB characteristics. We can literally
see and measure their speed and size, so when we
see those 2 characteristics (size, speed) we
start to salivate, then we then just have to
"hope" that they can actually play QB in the
NFL...and that's the last thing we usually worry
about.
Big arm, big height, big speed matter to most
first...then maybe we'll think about looking at
college on-field performance metrics against
tougher competition/strength of opponents played
overall some other time, but who can really tell
anything by that...right? We'll just keep
focusing in on the almost virtually irrelevant
(to future NFL success) 40-yard dash times of a
QB instead.
No matter how many times the "Road Runner"
gets away and our plans to capture him blows up
in our face, we are "Wile E. Coyote"...back at
the ACME store looking for the same answer the
next day/next NFL Draft.
You think Colin Kaepernick is a
physical specimen like you've never seen before?
I've seen him before (many times), in fact just
look on the 49ers roster under QBs and just
after the name Colin Kaepernick you will
find the equally/nearly as physically gifted and
mobile QB Alex Smith. You don't think
so...?
-
Kaepernick ran a 4.53 40-yard
dash, 2nd best among highly drafted 2011
QBs...Alex
Smith ran a 4.71 40-yard dash,
tied for the single fastest 40-yard
dash among highly drafted 2005 QBs
-
Kaepernick ran for 86.1 yards
per game his final season in college,
Alex
Smith ran for 52.6 yards per
game his final season in college
-
Kaepernick ran the ball 12.3
times per game his final season in college,
Alex
Smith ran 11.3 times
-
Kaepernick registered a very decent
4.18 time in the 20-yard shuttle
drill at the NFL Combine,
Alex
Smith registered a kick/punt returner
like 3.97 in the 20-yard shuttle. I
could make an argument that Alex Smith
is as/more agile than Kaepernick, strictly
from times captured at the NFL Combine.
Both Kaepernick and Smith are mobile, more
mobile than most NFL QBs. Kaepernick is a little
faster and had better rushing output in college
than Smith, but it wasn't like Smith was "a
stiff" just standing in the pocket. Smith is not
a "stiff", nor is he just "elusive" either; at
the time (2005) Smith was the forerunner of the
new breed of big/mobile/spread-system QBs to
come.
Highly drafted QBs who ran a faster 40-yard
dash times than Alex Smith since 2005 --
Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson,
Pat White, Tim Tebow. Boy, you gotta
love "big mobility", it's so key to translating
to NFL success...
"Colin Kaepernick is a
winner!!"
Colin Kaepernick was (13-1) his final
season at Nevada, and defeated power conference
opponent's -- Cal and Boston College.
Alex Smith was (12-0) his final season
at Utah, and defeated power conference
opponent's -- Texas A&M, Arizona, North
Carolina, and Pittsburgh.
Colin Kaepernick was (21-6) in his
final 2 seasons at Nevada, in his Junior (2nd to
last) season losing every matchup they
had with power conference opponent's --
Notre Dame, Mizzu
Alex Smith was (22-1) in his final 2
seasons at Utah, in his Sophomore (2nd to last)
season he defeated every power conference
opponent faced -- Cal, Oregon State, Oregon.
Alex Smith lost 1 game as a starter in his final
2 seasons in college.
This is not to take away from Colin
Kaepernick's great college career, not at
all. My point is, before we anoint Kaepernick as
the 49ers hope for the future because he was "a
winner"...Alex Smith was "a winner" too.
Actually, re-acquainting myself with Alex
Smith's college career -- Smith had an
amazing run in college...more amazing than
Colin Kaepernick's.
"Colin Kaepernick is a
smart QB"
Kaepernick certainly scored well on the
Wonderlic test with a 37, which is very
high...almost as high as Alex Smith's 40
that he scored on the Wonderlic. I don't think
anyone can say that one of them is definitively
"smarter" than the other.
"Yeah, but Kaepernick is
football-smart"...
All of these Alex Smith-Colin Kaepernick
comparisons are very similar, but where
Kaepernick starts to show "a tell" for me is
when you look deeper at their performances in
their final college season. Both QBs had
huge/lofty Senior season stats overall, but
focusing in on just their performances against
their 5 toughest opponents...Smith still excels,
and Kaepernick's numbers start to crack.
Comparing their toughest 5 games of their
senior season -- Alex Smith (Texas A&M,
UNC, Arizona, Pitt, New Mexico) and Colin
Kaepernick (Cal, BYU, Hawaii, Boise State,
Boston College):
-
Kaepernick's 2010 overall 64.9%
Completion Percentage fades to 58.9%
looking at his toughest matchups, whereas
Alex
Smith's 2005 overall 67.5%
Completion Percentage rises to 68.6%
against his toughest opponents
-
Kaepernick's 2010 overall 215.9
yards passing per game drops to 196.4
against the tougher competition,
Alex
Smith's 2005 overall rate of 246.0
passing yards per game rises to 273.0
against the tougher competition (77 yards,
or 39% more per game than Kaepernick).
-
Kaepernick's 2010 passing TDs per
game average was 1.5 per game
overall, and a slight drop to 1.4
against tougher opponents,
Alex
Smith's 2005 overall pace of 2.7
passing TDs per game dips to 2.6.
Smith maintains a full passing TD per game
more, regardless of the way we look at it
either overall or just against tougher
opponents
-
Kaepernick rushed for 65.4
yards and 1.2 rushing TDs per game
against the tougher opponents,
Alex
Smith had 40.4 yards rushing
and 1.0 TDs per game
-
Kaepernick combined (rush + pass) for
13 TDs against his 5 toughest
opponents,
Alex
Smith had 5 more TDs with his total
of 18 TDs rushing and passing
combined.
-
Kaepernick threw an INT for every
26.8 passes (a pace of 19 INTs in a 500
throw season) against the tougher
competition,
Alex
Smith threw and INT for every 76.5
passes (a pace of 7 INTs in a 500 throw
season)
I would maintain that Alex Smith was
pretty "football smart" too. In fact, take the
bias of seeing the names away and just look
purely at the stats -- Alex Smith
is better than Kaepernick in every passing
category in their final college seasons (whether
overall, or boiled down to 5 toughest
opponents). Also, Alex Smith's final
season was as a Junior -- playing 2 full years
as a starter for Utah. Kaepernick played/started
all of his 4 seasons. Kaepernick should have
been the smarter, steadier, more experienced
QB...yet, Smith showed much more passing
maturity (statistically). Again, not to down
Kaepernick who had a great final year and
career...it's just that Alex Smith was
better.
Pro-Kaepernick and
anti-Alex Smith...it's an oxymoron
OK, we've come a long way with a lot of info
to ask just one question for the pro-Kaepernick
and/or 49ers fans -- "Why are you so
excited/sure about Colin Kaepernick now
and not excited by Alex Smith anymore"?
Is it because you've seen Alex Smith
in the NFL, and you know you don't like it? What
makes Colin Kaepernick any different in
your mind...the fact that you haven't seen him
in the NFL? If you've never seen Kaepernick even
play in college, how do you know if he is any
good?...is it because he was drafted high (you
can't get drafted any higher than Alex Smith)?
If you have seen Kaepernick play all his games
at Nevada, are you concerned about all of these
parallels to Alex Smith...does it concern
you that Colin Kaepernick is a "poor
man's college version of the college Alex Smith"?
I know..."Jim Harbaugh will save the day
and MAKE Kaepernick a great QB!", and
perhaps he will...but why can't Harbaugh save
the day in San Fran with Alex Smith? If
Harbaugh is a guru, and Alex Smith is
equal to/better than Kaepernick as a prospect
out of college...why not have Harbaugh waive his
magic wand and turn Alex Smith and
Colin Kaepernick both in to great QBs?
Alex Smith is only 27.0 years old
(shocking isn't it?, it seems like he is a long
time veteran), Smith was young as it was and
came out as a Junior. Colin Kaepernick is
23.5 years old.
If you have banished Alex Smith to the
dust bin of history...wouldn't you then really
have to be frightened by the forecast for
Colin Kaepernick, or vice-versa...if you are
excited about Kaepernick's upside, than you
should really still have high hopes for Alex
Smith too?
Defending Alex Smith,
yikes...
Is Alex Smith's career really over? I
could see why Harbaugh has been talking about
keeping Alex Smith, because he may
actually be keeping Alex Smith (and not
bluffing)...and Harbaugh may make a run at
developing him into a good NFL QB. If you laugh
about that, then you have to laugh just as loud
that he can turn Kaepernick into a good NFL QB.
Alex Smith is the same/better prospect
that Kaepernick is, only now slightly older and
more NFL experienced.
If you are "done" with Alex Smith, are
you also done with Eli Manning and Jay
Cutler (and maybe you are done with all
3...) as well? Look at the last 2 years of
results between these 3 QBs:
|
QB |
Years |
Games |
Comp Pct |
Pass TDs per Game |
Yards per game |
INTs per Game |
|
E.Manning |
2009-10 |
32 |
62.6% |
1.81 |
250.7 |
1.2 |
|
Cutler |
2009-10 |
31 |
60.5% |
1.61 |
223.9 |
1.4 |
|
A. Smith |
2009-10 |
22 |
60.1% |
1.45 |
214.5 |
1.0 |
Final Thoughts
I started constructing this article based on
listening to a sports radio conversation where
the host theorized that Colin Kaepernick
felt/seemed to him like he would be a good NFL
QB for San Francisco. I was shouting at the
radio, "Based on what? How do you have this
feeling"? I don't think the host knew why he
felt that way...he just did. Many times we get a
"feeling" about a player based on very little
information, and we lock that in as our "final
answer", no dispute allowed. It's an odd
psychology, how and why we get "married" to
certain players.
Maybe Kaepernick will be really good,
transcendent...the "one" everyone is looking
for. I just marvel at the irony of people
"feeling" good about Kaepernick, as the
replacement/heir apparent for Alex Smith.
The only difference that I see between Alex
Smith in 2005 and Colin Kaepernick in
2011 is -- that Alex Smith was a better
prospect across the board.
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